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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000910 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: UTTARAKHAND: SLIM MARGIN MAY DETERMINE ELECTION 
OUTCOME 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 000659 
 
 ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  On February 21st, an estimated 55-60% of 
Uttarakhand's 6 million member electorate voted in the second 
Legislative Assembly election since the state was created out 
of Uttar Pradesh in 2000 (reftel).  The main battle was 
between the BJP and Congress for sixty-nine assembly seats 
and one Lok Sabha seat.  Polls for one assembly were delayed 
due to the death of its Congress party candidate.  Polling 
was peaceful, despite some hiccups with a few electronic 
voting machines and some names missing from voter lists. 
State Congress leader and incumbent Chief Minister N D Tiwari 
did not run for a seat, leaving the party without a clear 
chief ministerial candidate, potentially hurting Congress's 
chances to hold on to the state.  The election commission 
will report the results on February 27th, along with those of 
Punjab and Manipur.  End Summary. 
 
Exit Polls Unreliable 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Although most exit polls gave a clear, but slim, 
victory to the BJP, an NDTV poll predicted a tie.  In such a 
tight race, exit polls (always of questionable value in 
India) cannot provide a reliable indicator of the outcome. 
According to the HT/CNN-IBN poll, the BJP can expect to 
garner about 34% of the votes for an estimated 33-39 seats, 
with Congress receiving an estimated 31%, gaining between 
21-27 seats.  Such an outcome would be a reversal of the 2002 
elections, in which Congress won 36 seats and the BJP 19, 
with the remainder going to various regional parties and 
independents.  Despite the wide variance in seats, the 
electoral divide between the BJP and Congress in that race 
was just over one percent.  The NDTV poll suggests, however, 
that the ruling Congress and opposition BJP are both set to 
get 25-35 seats in the 70-member assembly.  In such a "hung 
assembly," the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Uttarakhand 
Kranti Dal (UKD), would likely break the deadlock by joining 
with Congress to form the government. 
 
Congress Hurt by Lack of Leadership 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Comment:  In Indian state politics, it is usually 
an uphill battle for the incumbent to hold on to power.  That 
is even more so in the case of Uttarakhand, where regional 
parties are ineffectual and politics are dominated by 
Congress and the BJP.  This "anti-incumbency factor" is 
further compounded by the retirement of Chief Minister and 
Congress party "grand old man" N. D. Tiwari.  Initially, his 
failure to run for a legislative assembly seat in this 
election opened him up to accusations of "cowardice" from the 
BJP.  In the final days of the campaign, Tiwari declared 
publicly that he will not serve as Chief Minister again. 
Although Tiwari gives his age (82) and his indifferent health 
as reasons for retiring, the Hindustan Times cited Congress 
party sources as saying that Tiwari hopes to succeed A. P. J. 
Abdul Kalam as President of India when Kalam's term ends 
later this year.  Based on previous PolOff meetings with him, 
Tiwari seems to have tired of running a small state and wants 
to return to the national political stage where he is more at 
 
NEW DELHI 00000910  002 OF 002 
 
 
home.  Tiwari's departure has provided the BJP with a 
political Godsend, as its own popular--and much younger at 
65--former Chief Minister, Bhagat Singh Koshiyari, is fully 
set to take up the Chief Minister's mantle. 
 
¶4.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
MULFORD