VZCZCXRO8019
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0594/01 0361419
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051419Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7240
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0086
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000594 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KLUU, GGOTTLIEB, AFERRARA, ACONVERY, 
CGOTTSCHALK, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR WHAMMINK, JDWORKEN 
AFR/AFR/EA FOR JBORNS 
STATE FOR AF/E AND PRM 
STATE/AF/E FOR NGARY 
STATE/F FOR ASISSON 
STATE/PRM FOR AWENDT, MMCKELVEY 
NSC FOR TSHORTLEY 
USUN FOR TMALY 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PREF PHUM PREL SO
SUBJECT:  SOMALIA DART SITUATION REPORT 12 - FOOD 
SECURITY ASSESSMENT 
 
REFS:  A)NAIROBI 00380  B) NAIROBI 00255 
 
NAIROBI 00000594  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1.  According to the preliminary results of the UN Food 
and Agriculture's (FAO) Food Security Analysis Unit 
(FSAU) and the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning 
Systems Network (FEWS NET) multi-agency post-short 
rains assessment, the October-December rains in Somalia 
were largely beneficial for pastoral areas and rain-fed 
agriculture.  Sorghum production in Bay and Bakool 
regions was above average.  In contrast, the maize 
producing regions of Shabelle, Juba Valley, Hiraan, and 
Gedo had a poor harvest due to flooding.  Humanitarian 
indicators for communities along the Shabelle and Juba 
rivers are declining and emergency interventions are 
required.  While FSAU and FEWS NET concluded that the 
impact of conflict in December and January was minimal 
on agriculture and livestock sectors in most of the 
regions, prolonged insecurity and conflict could have a 
greater negative impact.  End Summary. 
 
METHODOLOGY 
 
¶2.  On January 31, the FSAU, FEWS NET, and non- 
governmental organization (NGO) partners released 
preliminary findings from the recently concluded post- 
short rains assessment and analysis.  From December 13 
to January 10, a multi-agency assessment team conducted 
interviews, focus groups, crop production surveys, 
pastoral surveys, nutrition assessments, market price 
surveys, flood impact surveys, and conflict monitoring 
surveys in all regions of Somalia, including areas 
affected by recent insecurity. 
 
¶3.  The information gathered was then checked against 
other data generated by the FSAU, FEWS NET, NGOs, and 
sentinel sites.  Staff members from FSAU, FEWS NET, and 
nearly 40 other local and international organizations 
conducted the field research.  NGOs and UN agencies 
working in food security, livelihoods, and nutrition 
reviewed the preliminary results in Nairobi, Kenya, and 
Hargeisa, Somalia.  Results from this research were 
compared with the results from the same assessment in 
February 2006. 
 
CHANGE IN NUMBER OF AFFECTED PEOPLE 
 
¶4.  A major finding of the assessment was that the 
total number of people in acute food and livelihood 
crisis and humanitarian emergency has dropped from 1.3 
million people that FSAU reported in July 2006 to 
590,000 people.  Gedo, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower 
Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Hiraan are the regions 
most affected by food and livelihood insecurity, 
according to this study.  The total population in 
crisis is estimated to be approximately 1 million 
people, including 65,000 conflict-displaced people and 
400,000 existing internally displaced persons (IDPs). 
 
¶5.  The field assessment was also able to confirm 
estimates of people displaced by flooding in Somalia. 
The Nairobi-based flood working group, including the 
FSAU, FEWS NET, and the Somali Water Information 
Management System (SWALIM), originally estimated that 
the November-December flooding displaced 454,500 
people.  According to results from this study, an 
estimated 255,000 people were actually displaced at the 
 
NAIROBI 00000594  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
height of the flooding.  Additionally, field 
researchers found that nearly 90 percent of those have 
returned home despite destruction of irrigation canals, 
houses, water points, and underground food stores. 
 
CLIMATE AND CONFLICT'S IMPACT 
 
¶6.  The FSAU and FEWS NET concluded that climate had a 
positive impact on food production in rain-fed 
agriculture areas, but negatively affected livelihoods 
of river valley populations dependent on irrigation. 
According to the assessment, the recent conflict in 
southern and central Somalia had a minimally negative 
impact, but prolonged insecurity has the potential to 
disrupt inter-regional and cross-border trade. 
 
¶7.  From October to December 2006, most of Somalia 
received above average rainfall and currently has more 
vegetation than usual.  For example, Lower Juba Region 
received more than 300 percent of the long-term 
rainfall average.  Compared to the 1997 El Nino the 
intensity and temporal distribution of the 2006/2007 
short rains were significantly less than in 1997.  Most 
regions received 50 to 80 percent of what they received 
in 1997.  However, the impact of the 2006/2007 flooding 
was similar to that of 1997 because most of the 
riverbanks that were damaged in 1997 have not yet been 
repaired and Somalia was not adequately prepared.  The 
flooding destroyed crops, food stores, irrigation 
infrastructure, feeder roads, as well as contaminated 
water sources.  Despite the flooding in riverine areas 
of Somalia, the rains had a beneficial impact on the 
availability of water and pasture for livestock and 
contributed to a successful harvest in the sorghum 
belt. 
 
¶8.  The FSAU and FEWS NET reported that conflict had 
some impact on food, nutrition, and livelihood 
security, in some areas although it was not as great as 
originally feared.  The conflict did briefly disrupt 
seasonal agricultural and pastoral activities, 
including flood recessional planting and livestock 
migration.  Conflict and insecurity affected cross- 
border trade and limited inter-regional trade and 
market access, compounding access problems caused by 
heavy rains and flooding.  The January 3 closure of the 
Somalia-Kenya border also prevented trade flow and 
population movement. (REF A). 
 
¶9.  Conflict was initially concentrated along tarmac 
roads, such as the Kismayo-Jilib road and the Belet 
Weyne-Jowhar road, and did not spill over into 
agricultural areas.  The team found no evidence that 
combatants had targeted agricultural or livestock 
resources.  The team concluded that with the exception 
of parts of Juba Valley, the location of much of the 
fighting and military activity in recent months, the 
conflict had a greater impact on urban livelihoods than 
rural livelihoods (although the team did not conduct 
urban livelihood assessments).  Finally, the assessment 
team concluded that insecurity and recent conflict has 
caused a shrinking of humanitarian space, compounding 
existing problems and complicating the investigation of 
a possible Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic in animals 
and humans. (REF B) 
 
AGRICULTURE 
 
 
NAIROBI 00000594  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶10.  According to the assessment, the 2006/2007 short 
rains cereal production in Somalia is approximately 
111,000 metric tons (MT), which is 262 percent of the 
2005/2006 harvest and 113 percent of the average of 
1995-2005 production.  Maize was 21 percent of the 
total cereal production and sorghum was 79 percent. 
 
¶11.  Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, and Middle 
Shabelle were the four regions with poor crop 
production, mostly due to flooding.  Bakool, Bay, and 
Middle Juba regions had exceptional crop production 
this season. 
 
¶12.  In 2006, Somalia's four harvests produced more 
than 272,000 MT of cereal, which is 101 percent of the 
post-war average and significantly higher than the 
total 2005 annual cereal production.  Even though the 
harvest was good, the cereal produced represents a 
small percentage of Somalia's food needs, which are 
estimated to be more than 600,000 MT annually. 
 
LIVESTOCK 
 
¶13.  The FSAU reports that animal body conditions have 
markedly improved with greater water and pasture 
availability.  Camel, sheep, and goat holdings have 
improved, while cattle holdings remain stable.  The 
assessment team recorded a significant recovery in 
livestock prices, which should lead to improved terms 
of trade for cereals. 
 
¶14.  In 2006, Somalia exported 3 million animals, 
representing 91 percent of the 1995-1997 average and 
124 percent of the 2003-2005 average. 
 
¶15.  An unknown camel disease (REF B), which originated 
in Ethiopia, is now in Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Lower and 
Middle Shabelle, central, northeast, and northwest 
regions in Somalia.  The disease causes sudden animal 
death and affects 10 to 20 percent of the herd, but 
does not spread within it.  The disease is not 
transmittable to humans.  At this time, the FSAU has 
not issued an alert but will continue to monitor and 
investigate reports along with FAO's veterinary 
partners. 
 
¶16.  The team also provided a projected scenario for 
the impact of a potential RVF outbreak on the Somali 
livestock sector based on current indicators.  The FSAU 
predicts that any outbreak of RVF in Somalia in 2007 
will not be as severe as the 1997 RVF outbreak and will 
be localized.  In the short-term (1 to 2 months), the 
FSAU anticipates a minimal impact on the livestock 
economy from the closure of the Kenyan cattle market, 
because many livestock holders are currently attempting 
to restock their herds and are not selling. 
 
NUTRITION 
 
¶17.  During the food security assessment, field teams 
also took mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) 
measurements from children under the age of five to 
integrate nutritional data with food security data. 
MUAC measurements are a quick screening method that is 
not statistically comparable to formal nutritional 
surveys. 
 
¶18.  In December, field teams utilizing the MUAC method 
 
NAIROBI 00000594  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
found that 10 to 15 percent of children under the age 
of five in Belet Weyne District, Hiraan Region, 
suffered from serious levels of malnutrition.  The 
malnutrition rates in Belet Weyne are likely linked to 
waterborne diseases, such as cholera, that spread 
during flooding.  Experts believe that further 
investigation of the causes of malnutrition is 
especially warranted in Hiraan, as the levels of 
malnutrition may not be a food security issue as they 
are elsewhere, but instead be related to water, 
sanitation, and hygiene problems. 
 
¶19.  Riverine settlements in Middle Juba Region are 
other areas of concern, according to the assessment. 
Throughout Middle Juba Region the high levels of 
acutely malnourished children are decreasing, except in 
riverine communities where an increase in malnutrition 
rates has been documented since December.  According to 
the FSAU, the causes for the increasing levels of 
malnutrition in the riverine communities include 
localized displacement, diarrheal disease, malaria, and 
disrupted access to feeding centers due to flooding. 
 
¶20.  The team concluded that immediate nutritional 
interventions are needed in the riverine communities 
along the Shabelle River in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle 
regions as well as along the Juba River in Middle Juba 
and Gedo regions. 
 
FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK 
 
¶21.  Overall, the food security and nutrition 
situations have markedly improved throughout Somalia, 
most regions were downgraded on the integrated phase 
classification (IPC) scale.  The FSAU created the IPC 
system to integrate multiple nutrition, livelihood, and 
agriculture indicators into a single food security risk 
classification system.  The system classifies risk by 
district from generally food secure to famine and 
humanitarian catastrophe.  The only areas that remain 
under a humanitarian emergency classification on the 
IPC are the riverine areas mentioned above and Gedo 
Region.  Much of the improvement is due to the 
favorable climatic conditions from the long and short 
rains of 2006. 
 
¶22.  The preliminary results of the food security and 
livelihood assessment in Somalia are positive, but 
tempered by political uncertainty, insecurity, and an 
erratic climate.  As a result, humanitarian assistance 
will continue to be required in Somalia. 
 
¶23.  FEWS NET and the FSAU are staffed with talented 
Somali technical experts willing to travel frequently 
throughout Somalia.  The information and analysis they 
provide is vital to USAID, other donors, and the 
humanitarian community working in Somalia. 
 
RANNEBERGER