VZCZCXRO2193
RR RUEHAST RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0152/01 0511457
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201457Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5671
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000152 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - FEBRUARY 20, 2007 
 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
- U.S. Citizens Deported from Belarus (para. 2)                    - 
Lukashenko Wants to Cooperate with Europe (para. 3)           - GOB 
Delegation Meets with ILO (para. 4)                       - 
Belarusian and Venezuelan Ambassadors Meet (para. 5)          - 
Lukashenko Accepts Credentials from Ambassadors (para. 6) 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
------------- 
 
- Malady Front Marches Despite GOB Denial (para. 7) 
- German Ambassador Did Not Visit Kozulin (para. 8) 
- Court Rejects Independent Paper's Appeal (para. 9) 
 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
- 2007 Potash Exports to Rise 7.2 Million Tons (para. 10) 
- GOB Starts Clearance of Individuals' Fuel Exports (para. 11) 
 
DOMESTIC ECONOMY 
---------------- 
 
- National Bank Reports 1.1 Percent Drop in Reserves (para. 12) 
- January Inflation Puts 2007 Target in Jeopardy (para. 13) 
 
SOCIETY 
------- 
 
- Nine People Sentenced to Death in 2006 (para. 14) 
 
QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 15) 
 
----------------------- 
International Relations 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  U.S. Citizens Deported from Belarus 
According to a February 15 independent media article, the Public 
Relations Department of the Mogilyov Regional Police detained a 
group of ten U.S. citizens last week.  The police charged them with 
violating Article 185 of Belarus' Administrative code "Violation of 
Rules of Foreign Citizens' Stay in Belarus", fined them USD 14.50 
each, and then released them.  This week the GOB informed the group 
that they would be deported and unable to return to Belarus for at 
least two years.  The group found themselves in violation of the 
Administrative Code because they failed to obtain prior permission 
from the Education Ministry before they began teaching English at a 
house of worship in Mogilev. 
 
¶3.  Lukashenko "Seeks Cooperation" with Europe 
 
On February 13, independent media reported that Lukashenko had 
stated that he was "fed up" with Russia.  Then, while accepting 
credentials from several ambassadors, Lukashenko stated that Belarus 
is ready for mutually beneficial cooperation with Europe.  He told 
the French ambassador that the two countries share many approaches 
to pressing international issues, and that Belarus respects France 
because of its "significant role in Europe's political and economic 
life."  He also told the ambassador from Spain, who covers Belarus 
from Russia, that their two countries should concentrate their 
efforts into developing and diversifying bilateral trade. 
Lukashenko promised that all the necessary conditions for the 
diplomats' fruitful work would be created in Belarus. 
 
¶4.  GOB Delegation Meets with ILO 
 
From February 13 to 16, a Belarusian delegation led by Deputy Prime 
Minister Andrey Kobyakov held a round of consultations with 
representatives of the International Labor Organization ILO in 
Geneva.  The meeting reportedly focused on the implementation of 
recommendations given to the GOB by the ILO Commission of Inquiry 
two years ago.  The ILO gave the GOB until November 2006 to bring 
national regulations into line with international standards or face 
expulsion from the organization.  According to the ILO executive 
director, who made an official visit to Minsk in January of this 
year, Belarus has made steps to implement some of the ILO 
recommendations, but the situation with regard to trade unions' 
rights remains serious. 
 
 ¶5.  Belarusian and Venezuelan Ambassadors Meet 
In a February 13 article, independent media reported that the 
Belarusian Ambassador to Russia had met with his Venezuelan 
counterpart the previous day in Moscow.  Reportedly, they discussed 
the implementation of agreements reached by Presidents Lukashenko 
 
MINSK 00000152  002 OF 003 
 
 
and Chavez at their meeting in Minsk last summer.  They also raised 
the issue of expanding bilateral trade.  Venezuela allegedly plans 
to open an embassy in Belarus before the end of April. 
¶6.  Lukashenka Accepts Credentials from Ambassadors 
 
Independent media reported on February 13 that Lukashenko had 
accepted credentials from the new Ambassadors of Benin, Egypt, 
Equatorial Guinea, France, Greece, Lithuania, Sierra Leone and Spain 
to Belarus.  Lukashenko told the Egyptian Ambassador that he views 
Egypt as a major political and economic partner in the Middle East. 
He also said that Belarus intends to increase economic cooperation 
with Egypt and assemble machinery there. 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶7. Malady Front Marches Despite GOB Denial 
 
On February 14, more than 100 Malady Front youth activists gathered 
in Minsk's Liberty Square and took Valentine's Day messages to the 
U.S., German, and French Embassies.  DCM and Poloffs received the 
messages and presented the activists with small gifts.  Authorities 
reportedly detained at least one activist.  On February 13, 
independent media reported that the GOB had denied the unregistered 
opposition youth group, "Malady Front," permission to stage a 
traditional Valentine's Day march.  Authorities ostensibly denied 
the application because those who signed the request had failed to 
indicate their place of work. 
 
¶8.  German Ambassador Did Not Visit Kozulin 
 
In an interview with independent media on February 12, Irina 
Kozulina (wife of imprisoned opposition former presidential 
candidate Alexander Kozulin) denied reports that the German 
Ambassador to Belarus had met with her husband.  Apparently, a 
translator incorrectly interpreted part of Kozulina's February 8 
speech at the European Parliament in Brussels.  She said, "it would 
be a good sign if the German Ambassador were allowed to meet with" 
her husband.  However, the translator interpreted it as though the 
Ambassador had already met with Kozulin. 
 
¶9.  Court Rejects Independent Paper's Appeal 
 
On February 13, independent media reported that the appellate board 
of the Vitebsk Regional Economic Court had rejected an appeal by the 
local independent newspaper Vitebskiy Kuryer to overturn an earlier 
court decision against the paper.  A lower court had supported the 
GOB's decision to cancel the paper's office space lease.  The paper 
now plans to appeal the case again in the Supreme Economic Court of 
Belarus. 
 
---------------------------------- 
International Trade and Investment 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  2007 Potash Exports to Rise 7.2 Million Tons 
 
The Belarusian fertilizer company Belaruskaliy, one of the world's 
largest producers of potassium fertilizers (14.85 percent), plans to 
expand its exports in 2007 to 7.2 million tons.  The domestic market 
will receive approximately 950,000 tons.  In 2006, Belaruskaliy 
exports fell short of its projected volume of 6.3 million tons 
because of a stalled contract with China, its major buyer.  In terms 
of real cash, this year exports will grow even faster.  Last year, 
the price per ton rose by USD 11 and likely will keep rising this 
year.  In 2007, Belaruskaliy will reportedly operate to its full 
capacity but its production will fall 400,000 tons short of 
fulfilling demand. 
 
¶11.  GOB Starts Clearance of Individuals' Fuel Exports 
 
On February 12, Belarus' State Customs Committee ruled that starting 
March 1, individuals departing Belarus in a motor vehicle more than 
once within three days will have to declare all fuel in their tanks 
and pay an export tariff. Since Belarusian gasoline and diesel fuel 
are slightly cheaper than in neighboring countries, many people 
routinely fill their tanks in Belarus to sell the fuel across the 
border.  With this measure, the government reportedly seeks to both 
avoid a fuel shortage and encourage unauthorized exporters to 
establish a legitimate business.  The new requirement does not apply 
to members of official foreign delegations, members of diplomatic 
missions and international organizations, government officials on 
business travel, truck drivers hauling international cargoes, or to 
individuals traveling abroad for health recuperations or on a work 
visa.  Independent economic analyst Leonid Zaiko recently told us 
that the new measure would likely be temporary and become redundant 
when the price of car fuel in Belarus reaches a level comparable 
with neighboring countries. 
 
---------------- 
 
MINSK 00000152  003 OF 003 
 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶12.  National Bank Reports 1.1 Percent Drop in Reserves 
 
According to the National Bank of Belarus, Belarus' gold and foreign 
exchange reserves fell from USD 1.753 billion in December 2006 to 
USD 1.734 billion in January 2007. The country's reserves rose fast 
over the last few years (e.g. 9.6 percent in 2006) and the plans for 
2007 were also ambitious - USD 200-400 million.  Given the higher 
energy prices that Belarus has to pay this year, National Bank 
representatives noted that Belarus will have to wait and see what 
other sources the country will find to recoup the fall and achieve 
this goal. 
 
¶13.  January Inflation Puts 2007 Target in Jeopardy 
 
On February 13, the Belarusian Statistics Ministry reported that 
Belarus' consumer price index grew 1.8 percent in January versus 0.8 
percent in December 2006.  The Statistics Ministry had projected an 
aggregate 2007 inflation rate of Belarus of six percent, or 0.5 
percent per month. 
 
------- 
Society 
------- 
 
¶14.  Nine People Sentenced to Death in 2006 
 
On February 12, the Chairman of the Supreme Court of Belarus, 
Valentin Sukala, announced that in 2006 the court sentenced nine 
people to death and seven to life imprisonment.  In 2005, the court 
only sentenced two people to death.  Sukala attributes the increase 
in death sentences to a number of high-profile criminal cases 
involving gang members who were convicted of committing 16 murders. 
Sukala believed that the cases could not have ended in anything 
other than a death sentence. 
 
----------------- 
QUOTE OF THE WEEK 
----------------- 
 
¶15. On February 12, during his interview with the Russian newspaper 
"Zavtra," President Lukashenko offered the following criticism about 
the current condition of the Union State with Russia: 
 
"Russian authorities have put a noose around Belarus' neck.  What 
kind of union are we speaking about when a factory, a collective 
farm, an owner of private business in Russia has privileged 
conditions, getting gas three times cheaper than economic entities 
in Belarus?  Who needs such a union when we are oppressed this way? 
Sooner or later the Russian people will stand up from their knees 
and make the government carry out the right policy." 
 
Stewart