VZCZCXRO1865
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHPA RUEHRN
DE RUEHMR #0077/01 0511207
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 201207Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY MASERU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2628
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0070
RUEHMR/AMEMBASSY MASERU 2975

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MASERU 000077 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV EAID LT
SUBJECT: LESOTHO: CALM ELECTION DELIVERS WAKE-UP CALL TO GOVERNING 
PARTY 
 
REF: MASERU 75 AND PREVIOUS 
 
MASERU 00000077  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY: Early unofficial results from Lesotho's national 
election on February 17 indicate that the governing political 
party, the Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD), will likely 
retain control of Parliament and form a new government.  The 
LCD, however, received a significant wake-up call from the 
country's voters: at least five leading cabinet Ministers were 
ousted from the National Assembly; the party's previous 
domination of the legislature has dissipated; and the upstart 
All Basotho Congress (ABC) will arrive in Parliament as a 
formidable opposition.  Opposition parties, however, have raised 
serious concerns over vote tabulation in several of Lesotho's 80 
"constituencies" (electoral districts), which could delay 
publication of final election results, including the 
distribution of the National Assembly's 40 proportional seats. 
Despite these disputes, opposition leaders indicate they will 
not attempt to annul overall results or obstruct the formation 
of a new government.  Instead, they claim that they intend to 
pursue their grievances through the courts.  Official results 
may be presented by auditors February 21 or 22. 
 
¶2. International observers, including a substantial U.S. mission 
election monitoring team, concur that balloting on February 17 
appeared to be free, fair, and peaceful, representing a victory 
for democracy in this developing nation.   Lesotho's Independent 
Election Commission (IEC) mobilized over 20,000 individuals to 
operate 2,558 polling stations throughout the country.  Voting 
was slow and laborious, but was also remarkably orderly, calm, 
and transparent.  There were numerous procedural discrepancies 
at individual polling stations--primarily the result of 
logistical challenges and inexperienced electoral workers--but 
observers saw no evidence of systematic malfeasance.  Voter 
turnout appears to have been lower than the 2002 election (60% 
turnout), but may have surpassed 50 percent of the 900,000 
registered voters.   Embassy Maseru's robust monitoring mission, 
the most significant diplomatic observation operation for this 
election, covered seven of Lesotho's ten districts, producing 
valuable insights into how the election unfolded in a variety of 
different settings.  From this vantage point, Lesotho's polling 
appeared fully transparent and possibly a model for other 
African states.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
EARLY RESULTS:  WAKE-UP CALL FOR THE LCD 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. According to the IEC, as of early February 20 the governing 
LCD party had secured victory in 62 of Lesotho's 80 
constituencies.  The upstart ABC opposition party, founded only 
four months ago by former LCD minister Tom Thabane, had scored 
17 seats.  The small Alliance of Congress Parties (ACP) had won 
a single seat.   (Note: In the 2002 national election, the LCD 
dominated the National Assembly, winning 79 of 80 
constituencies.  End Note.)   The official 2007 election audit 
has not been completed, however,  and results therefore remain 
unofficial.  Futhermore, opposition parties have disputed the 
ballot count in several constituencies.  Once the tally for the 
80 constituencies is finalized, the IEC will distribute the 40 
remaining proportional seats on the basis of the constituency 
results as well as a second ballot that voters used for 
political parties. 
 
¶4. Preliminary results indicate that the ABC faired best in 
urban areas, almost scoring a slam dunk in the heavily populated 
district of Maseru (comprised of 18 constituencies).  The power 
of the incumbency, however, appears to have given the governing 
LCD a slim majority of the total National Assembly seats. 
Nonetheless, at least five leading members of cabinet (and 
leaders of the LCD party) were ousted, including the veteran 
Ministers of Health; Tourism, Environment and Culture (who also 
serves as the deputy Secretary General of the LCD); Natural 
Resources; Public Works; and Agriculture.  The LCD Assistant 
Minister of Agriculture also lost his seat. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Embassy Maseru's Monitoring Mission 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  U.S. Mission Maseru conducted a thorough but targeted 
monitoring effort during Lesotho's 2007 National Assembly 
elections.  This effort involved the deployment of Embassy 
officers, FSNs, EFMs, and TDYers at polling stations in 
Lesotho's four most populous districts and three outlying 
districts.  In each of Lesotho's four most populous districts 
(Maseru, Leribe, Berea, and Mafeteng), which combined represent 
two-thirds of the nation's population, we placed two Embassy 
teams.  One team remained close to the district capital, while 
the second roved through the district's countryside.  To avoid 
geographic over-concentration, three separate teams deployed to 
 
MASERU 00000077  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
three remote districts (Mokhotlong, Thaba-Tseka, and Qacha's 
Nek).  The Embassy had also requested NDI support through USAID. 
 In partnership with the Lesotho Council of NGOs, also under USG 
funding, NDI placed monitors in over 200 polling stations. 
Additional teams, including the Ambassador, DCM, and Emboffs, 
monitored election polling in Maseru City and election events at 
Lesotho's National Results Center. 
 
-------------------- 
Notes From the Field 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  U.S. Embassy and other international monitoring teams 
reported that a calm, though (sometimes painfully) slow emphasis 
on following rules and procedures characterized the election 
process.  As each voter cast two ballots (one as a direct vote 
for a candidate from one of 80 constituencies and a second for a 
political party), the potential for voter confusion was high. 
However, IEC personnel patiently explained the procedure to 
voters, and most teams reported that the process was smooth. 
Some problems occurred with voter registration lists, a source 
of high concern over recent weeks; SADC observers cautioned the 
GOL and the IEC to address this issue before future elections. 
 
¶7.  At all of the 90-plus polling stations visited by U.S. 
Embassy personnel, a contingent of party agents (representatives 
of the political parties) was present.  Party agents witnessed 
the entire process, from the sealing of ballot boxes at the 
opening of the polls until the final vote tallies were 
officially recorded.  Party agents were free to raise 
objections, but were remarkably quiet at most stations.  During 
tabulation, party agents were shown every individual ballot and 
told by the polling station's presiding officer his/her ruling 
on the ballot.  Although this technique allowed for maximum 
transparency, the process prolonged vote counting for up to two 
days at some locations as officials conducted tabulation by 
candle light.  Party agents for the leading parties--the LCD, 
ABC, and BNP--were present at 92%, 88%, 86%, respectively, of 
the 90-plus polling stations visited by Embassy teams. 
Subsequent to Election Day, opposition parties (including the 
ABC and the BNP) have reported that party agents objected to the 
final tabulation in several constituencies, claiming that IEC 
workers have reported fabricated local results to the National 
Results Center. 
 
----------------------- 
What Were the Problems? 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  Despite the Embassy teams' overall positive impressions, 
procedural and logistical problems were observed at most polling 
stations.  In one polling station in Berea district, polling was 
stopped for two hours when a GOL vehicle dropped off a number of 
individuals who where prevented from voting by locals who did 
not believe that they were properly registered to vote at that 
station.  IEC mediators arrived at the scene, and the situation 
was soon resolved.  A local watchdog radio station reported 
other instances of voters questionably transported by government 
vehicles.  Also, GOL ministers made frequent appearances at 
polling stations, although it is a matter of interpretation 
whether their presence violated Lesotho's electoral "Code of 
Conduct". 
 
¶9.  Of the 90-plus stations visited by U.S. Embassy Teams: 
 
-  7% opened late.  Three of these were in Maseru district, and 
most opened within one hour of the 7:00 a.m. national opening. 
-  9% were missing some electoral materials (usually ballot box 
seals).  With the exception of one Maseru polling station, at 
which missing ballots delayed voting by three hours, the missing 
material did not cause significant problems. 
-  7% of ballot boxes were not properly sealed.  No Embassy 
teams concluded that this affected the integrity of the election. 
-  17% of the Embassy teams reported slow voting that could 
cause potential voters to leave before casting their ballots. 
(NOTE: Each polling station had approximately 400-500 registered 
voters, requiring the processing of 40-50 voters per hour to 
accommodate full turnout.  Most stations, however, averaged half 
that pace.  END NOTE.) 
-  20% of stations visited had the presence of senior GOL 
officials and other candidates for office. 
-  At 27% of polling stations, at least one individual was not 
allowed to vote due to registration issues.  However, when such 
cases were explored by Embassy monitoring teams, most of these 
cases seemed justified under Lesotho's electoral law and party 
agents did not object. 
-  Most teams reported poor location of the secret balloting 
area or potential problems with secrecy.  However, teams agreed 
that this was a hypothetical problem rather than an actual one, 
 
MASERU 00000077  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
as there was no apparent voter intimidation or objection by 
party agents. 
-  At 9% of polling stations, some confusion was reported 
regarding the two ballot system. 
 
¶10. The presence of political candidates, including senior GOL 
officials, at polling stations was viewed by some observers and 
opposition parties as skirting electoral laws that prohibit 
campaigning during the final 24 hours of the election season. 
According to local press reports, Foreign Minister Moleleki, who 
was observed mingling with voters inside several polling 
stations on election day, allegedly distributed large quantities 
of computer equipment to constituents within Maseru district on 
the eve of the election. 
 
¶11.  The Commonwealth and SADC delegations' debriefs for 
international partners pointed out the positive aspects of 
Lesotho's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system (a potential 
model for other states), but also warned against the dangers of 
alliances (such as that of the ruling LCD party with the 
National Independence Party -- NIP) undermining the true purpose 
of the MMP system, i.e., allowing a broader range of 
representation. 
 
-------------------------------- 
COMMENT: Calm and Excruciatingly 
Slow, but Transparent 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  While all election observers (including the African Union, 
SADC, SADC Parliamentary Forum, the Electoral Institute of 
Southern Africa, the Commonwealth, diplomatic missions, the 
NDI-supported Lesotho Council of NGOs, and the Christian Council 
of Lesotho) noted problems with the execution of voting at 
certain polling stations, all also recognized that Lesotho's 
2007 elections had, on the whole, passed into history with 
remarkable calm and respect for the rule of law.  Teams 
monitoring vote tabulation at individual polling found the 
process painfully slow and frustratingly repetitive, but 
completely transparent.  Many issues which had alarmed the 
international community in recent weeks, such as the state of 
Lesotho's voter rolls, did not emerge to such an extent on 
polling day to undercut the ability of most voters to cast their 
ballots. 
 
¶13.  While Lesotho appears to have cleared the polling hurdle, 
all eyes are now turning to the next challenges - the vote 
tabulation process, the formation of a new government, and the 
peaceful acceptance of election results by all stakeholders. 
END COMMENT. 
PERRYJC