VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLGB #0185/01 0571332
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261332Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 3810

UNCLAS KIGALI 000185 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL RW
SUBJECT: RWANDA SCENESETTER FOR A/S POWELL 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Post warmly welcomes the visit of Assistant 
Secretary of State for Educational and Cultural Affairs Dina 
 
SIPDIS 
Powell.   Rwanda is a nation still struggling to overcome the 
legacy of the devastating 1994 genocide, and reconcile 
populations at odds for most of Rwanda's modern history. 
Upwards of one million Rwandans lost their lives, and the 
nation's infrastructure, economy and society were terribly 
damaged in the genocide.  Today, the economy has been largely 
rebuilt, and great strides have been made in restoring 
security and establishing the underpinnings of a developing 
democracy. Yet much remains to be done.  Below the mission 
reviews keys issues for your visit. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Political Pluralism:  In 2003, President Kagame was 
elected to a seven-year term with 95 percent of the votes, 
and members of Parliament were also elected.  In February 
2006, local officials were elected to five-year terms in 
local elections, and in early March 2006 the new mayor of 
Kigali City was elected.  The next legislative elections will 
be held in 2008, presidential elections in 2010, and local 
elections in 2011.  The 2003 presidential and legislative 
elections were peaceful but marred by irregularities. 
Constitutional and regulatory restrictions on political party 
operations remain in place, and use of broadly-worded 
criminal statutes sanctioning divisionism and "genocide 
ideology" are a concern for the human rights community. Other 
human rights concerns include lingering restrictions on a 
free press, a judicial system still hampered by capacity 
limitations, and a developing civil society that must satisfy 
extensive licensing requirements. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Press Freedom: Press freedom remains the subject of 
much debate and action in Rwanda.  2006 began with public 
criticism of Rwanda's media by President Kagame and of 
individual reporters by other officials.  Later that year, we 
saw clear signs that senior GOR officials recognized the 
importance of a free, effective free press to the development 
of Rwanda's democracy and to international perceptions of the 
country.  In spite of some reports of harassment, occasional 
run-ins with the police and other government authorities, and 
a worrisome physical attack on one journalist on February 9 
this year, Rwanda's media appears considerably freer than it 
was two or three years ago.  The number of independent media 
outlets continues to grow: nine radio stations are now on the 
air, and 37 newspapers are being published.  Last year the 
New Times became the first daily paper.  Newspapers such as 
Focus, Umuseso, Newsline, and Umuvugizi regularly publish 
articles critical of senior government officials and 
institutions and the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front without 
government sanction.  In fact, local journalists, who do 
admit to self-censoring on occasion, often tell us that the 
over-riding concern for them is the day-to-day economic 
obstacles to making journalism profitable. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Justice and the Genocide:  Over 800,000 suspected 
"genocidaires" (those who participated in the 1994 genocide) 
are the subject of judicial inquiry by the gacaca courts, a 
traditional system modernized and expanded by the GOR.  Over 
51,000 cases had been adjudicated by 1545 gacaca courts by 
the end of 2006.  Many of those so judged return to prison 
with lengthy sentences, and the prison population has been 
rising at a worrisome rate.  The GOR just released over 9,000 
gacaca suspects and regular convicts from the nation's 16 
prisons, and plans additional releases, providing temporary 
reductions in the prison population.  While the most serious 
genocide offenders will be judged by the regular courts, the 
gacaca courts represent the principal attempt by the GOR to 
achieve justice and reconciliation, a difficult policy 
balance, given Rwanda's history of ethnic animosities. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Economic Development:  Rwanda's main challenges 
remain its small economy, relative isolation, poor 
infrastructure, energy insecurity, and poorly developed human 
capital. Rwanda's economy remains largely dependent upon 
foreign aid, while its population remains overwhelmingly 
rural with over 90 percent of families earning a living 
through subsistence agriculture and 56.9 percent of 
households living below the poverty line of 250 Rwandan 
francs a day (about $0.45).  However, Rwanda has achieved an 
average GDP growth rate of 6 percent over the past six years 
and increased the total value of exports by 23 percent in 
¶2005.  The government has established important policy 
benchmarks for overhauling the economy, and establishing 
Rwanda as a regional crossroads bridging the Francophone west 
and Anglophone east.  It has achieved major improvements in 
the areas of tax collection, banking, trade agreements, 
anti-corruption, and fiscal policy.  It has improved road 
condition throughout the country, and maintaine 
d a low corruption rate relative to neighboring countries. 
In 1996, there were a total of 91 parastatal enterprises, and 
over 50 of those enterprises had been privatized by the end 
of 2006. Privatization of the telecommunications and banking 
sectors has largely been completed and Electrogaz is 
scheduled to be privatized in FY 2008. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Poverty Reduction:  The government has made 
efforts, with measurable results, to reduce poverty and to 
improve access to health care and education, despite its 
severely limited resources.  Under its national policy of 
universal primary education, the GOR provides free primary 
education to all children.  A joint GOR-donor task force is 
focusing on improvement of girls' education.  The GOR is also 
attempting to improve access to health care through greater 
decentralization to ensure inadequate health services at the 
local level.  In addition, it has implemented plans for the 
prevention, protection, and reintegration of street children 
(currently 7,000 out of 4.2 million children), including 
vocational training to promote self-reliance through 
development of income-generating skills.  Rwanda is revising 
its Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy in 
¶2007. Rwanda had completed the Highly Indebted Poor Country 
(HIPC) debt relief initiative and the Multilateral Debt 
Relief Initiative by the en 
d of 2006. Completion of these two debt initiatives 
significantly reduced its overall debt.  Anticipated GDP 
growth for the immediate future should continue at 5-6 
percent, while inflation may rise given high energy costs and 
large donor inflows.   Rwanda does face challenges to food 
security from cyclic rainfall shortages. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Global Health:  Rwanda is one of  the  most 
severely HIV-affected countries of 123 countries receiving 
USG funding under PEPFAR, a $15 billion, five-year, 
multi-agency global plan to combat HIV/AIDS.  Rwanda was 
selected as one of the 15 focus countries for its level of 
infection, the severity of its health situation, and the 
leadership demonstrated by the Rwandan government and its 
people in fighting the epidemic.  Recent results of a 2005 
demographic and health survey, officially released by the 
GOR, indicate a national HIV prevalence rate of 3.0 percent 
(3.6 percent for women, 2.3 percent for men).  The survey 
suggests that women are contracting HIV/AIDS at a younger age 
than men, and that for both sexes prevalence in urban areas 
is approximately three times higher than in rural areas.  By 
the end of FY 2008 the USG's PEPFAR program in Rwanda will 
provide at least 50,000 persons with ARV treatment, prevent 
158,000 new HIV infections, and provide care and support to 
250,000 persons affected by HIV 
/AIDS, including orphans and vulnerable children.  FY06 
PEPFAR funding for Rwanda was approximately $72 million.  The 
funding for FY07 is expected to be $94 million.  DOD PEPFAR 
funds will result in the testing of all RDF troops each year. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In addition, Rwanda is a phase II country for the 
President's Malaria Initiative. This program will work to 
dramatically reduce the incidence of malaria through new 
treatments, indoor residual spraying, home based management 
of fever in children and increased bed net use.  PMI funding 
for the first year of the program is $20 million.  The 
Mission also implements successful programs in child 
survival, maternal and child health, reproductive health and 
family planning.  These programs have annual budgets of 
approximately $8 million. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Democracy and Governance:  The Mission program, led 
by USAID, focuses on three areas:  local government, civil 
society, and reconciliation.  The agency supports 
decentralized governance through an innovative program in 
which health and governance objectives combine to ensure 
local management and delivery of high quality health 
services.  The program is intended to demonstrate ability for 
local governments to manage and fund public services.  The 
program is complemented by a civil society program that will 
give over 400 small grants to local organizations that 
provide services, income generation, or other economic 
development opportunities.  The agency also supports a series 
of smaller projects related to reconciliation, such as 
activities in women's micro-finance, women's legal rights, 
land policy and law, and youth trauma therapy. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Specialty Coffee: In 2001 when USAID spearheaded 
the development of the specialty coffee sector in Rwanda, the 
country produced only low-grade commercial quality beans for 
export despite coffee being the traditional number one export 
earner.  Over the past six years, USAID has invested an 
estimated USD 10 million in promoting and developing the 
Rwandan coffee industry, building and rehabilitating coffee 
washing station, training farmers and "cuppers" (coffee 
tasters), organizing cooperatives, encouraging banks to lend 
to Rwandan investors to build coffee washing stations, and 
improving rural infrastructure.  Today, Rwandan coffee has 
become known as one of the "best of the best" coffees in the 
world. Rwanda exported 1,100 tons of high quality specialty 
coffee in 2005, and 2,000 tons in 2006.  While still a small 
proportion of overall coffee exports, these crops earn top 
prices for the coffee growers, and have resulted in better 
health care, education, and housing in coffee farming 
communities.  In 2006, Starbucks launched a promotional 
campaign featuring the best of Rwandan coffee, a program seen 
by an estimated 19 million customers per week in over 5,000 
Starbucks retail stores throughout the US. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Regional Security: Overall trends are increasingly 
positive throughout the region.  Successful 2006 elections in 
the DRC have brought hope of a stabilizing neighbor to the 
east, and greater cooperation between the two governments. 
Uganda and Rwanda enjoy the most positive relations in years, 
and the simmering internal political problems in Burundi show 
signs of improvement.    However the Forces Dmocratiques de 
Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR)  (an armed group of Rwandan 
origin formed from the remnants of the former armed forces of 
Rwanda and the Interahamwe militias, some of whom bear 
responsibility for the 1994 genocide), continues to  operate 
in North and south Kivu provinces of eastern DRC.  The FDLR 
conducted an insurgency in northwest Rwanda in 1997 and 1998, 
prompting the RDF to re-enter eastern Congo to pursue and, 
eventually, put down the insurgency.  The RDF left eastern 
Congo in 2002 and, despite causing continued instability in 
the Kivus, the FDLR has not threatened Rwanda militarily 
since t 
hen.  Recent cooperation with the DRC government and armed 
forces in encouraging the reintegration of militia forces, 
including those of rwandaphone General Nkunda, shows progress 
can be made in eastern Congo.  However, the FDLR, currently 
estimated at between eight to ten thousand combatants, 
remains an unresolved worry for the GOR and the international 
community. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Tripartite Plus:  In 2004, the USG facilitated the 
formation of the Tripartite forum for Rwanda, Uganda, and the 
DRC (with Burundi added in 2006) to discuss regional security 
issues.  The USG last facilitated meetings on the margins of 
the UNGA in New York in September 2006.  The next meeting has 
been set for the middle of March in Kigali.  In December 
2005, the Tripartite Fusion Cell (TFC) started operations in 
Kisangani, DRC, with the primary function of sharing 
information on the foreign-armed groups in eastern Congo. The 
GOR usually has two representatives on the TFC.  Much work 
has been done on the four Focal Points, located in the 
capital cities, with the ultimate view of closing the TFC and 
relying upon direct communication and information-sharing 
among the governments.  A principal focus of the March 
meeting will be on ending regional security threats by 
"negative forces." 
 
¶13.  (SBU) AU Mission:  The Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF), one 
of the most competent and professional militaries in 
sub-Saharan Africa, has approximately 2,500 troops deployed 
in Darfur attached to the African Union Mission in Sudan 
(AMIS).  In addition to RDF soldiers and officers serving in 
six-month rotations as force protection and military 
observers, there are 50 civilian police officers serving 
under AMIS and 250 RDF troops in Khartoum in support of the 
United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS).  The USG has been 
providing logistical and training support for the Rwandan 
contribution to AMIS since initial deployment in August 2004. 
 The US Air Force and US-funded contract airlines have 
provided transport for all troop deployments (except the 
recent deployment of one battalion by Algerian aircraft), and 
US contractors have conducted training for seven battalions 
in preparation for the Darfur deployments.  An additional 
battalion, the 14th, is currently being trained.  Rwanda 
became a full ACOTA partner in Ju 
ne, 2006, and ACOTA now provides a full nine-week Peace 
Support Operation training by US contractors (MPRI.  One 
current bilateral issue is the application of the Leahy 
Amendment to the currently-training battalion and its 
commander. 
 
 
ARIETTI