VZCZCXRO8975
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJA #0309/01 0370703
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 060703Z FEB 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3152
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0214
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3811
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0403
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 3858
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 000309 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EB/IFD/OMA 
TREASURY FOR IA-SETH SEARLS 
COMMERCE FOR 4430/GOLIKE 
DEPARTMENT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO FOR FINEMAN 
DEPARTMENT PASS EXIM BANK 
 
E.O. 12598: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN EINV ECON PGOV ID
SUBJECT: INDONESIA RIDES THE COMMODITIES BOOM 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. Indonesia's exports soared for the first time to 
over $100 billion in 2006, underpinning respectable gross domestic 
product (GDP) growth of 5.5% for the year.  A 19% rise in non-oil 
and gas exports, particularly commodities, over the first 11 months 
of 2006 drove the country's strong export performance.  Closer 
analysis of Indonesia's trade data, however, indicates that 2006's 
non-oil export boom largely resulted from high world commodity 
prices rather than significant increases in export volumes, with 
rising garment exports to Japan and the EU a modest exception. 
Exports of Indonesia's top manufactured goods have remained flat or 
declined, and the country's unemployment figures were stagnant at 
10.3 percent in 2005-2006.  In the short term, Indonesia can likely 
depend on continuing strength in global commodity prices to support 
solid export-led GDP growth.  In the longer term, though, limited 
new investment in manufacturing facilities and growing 
infrastructure bottlenecks may prevent Indonesia from sustaining its 
strong export performance and relatively high level of GDP growth if 
commodity prices flatten out.  Should commodity prices falter, 
stubbornly high unemployment levels will likely place a spotlight on 
the GOI's investment climate reforms and their success in boosting 
Indonesia's manufacturing sector.  End Summary. 
 
Commodity Exports Drive Growth in 2006 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) rose an estimated 
5.5% year-on-year (YoY) in 2006, in large part due to strong growth 
in exports and relatively limited expansion of imports.  Total 
exports in 2006 rose 17.6 percent YoY, and growth in net exports 
(based on average quarterly contributions for the first nine months) 
comprised approximately 45% of total GDP growth.  By the same 
calculations, growth in investment accounted for less than 4% of GDP 
growth on average over the same period.  Initial data for 2006 
suggest that Indonesia's total export value exceeded $100 billion in 
2006, up sharply from the $61 billion just three years ago. 
 
¶3. (U) While Indonesia's oil and gas exports increased 10.9% (YoY) 
during the first 11 months of 2006, the rapid increase in non-oil 
exports, particularly commodities, drove Indonesia's strong export 
performance.  As illustrated in Table 1, strong growth in commodity 
exports led the non-oil export expansion, particularly rubber and 
rubber products, copper, coal, ash residue and palm oil, which grew 
between 17% and 60%(YoY) during the January to November 2006 period. 
 Exports of paper and knitted garments also performed well during in 
2006, increasing 22% and 18%,(YoY), respectively, during the first 
three quarters of 2006.  (Note: Data for paper and knitted garment 
exports in October and November are not yet available. End note.) 
 
¶4. (U) In contrast, growth in manufacturing exports over the same 
period stalled.  Shipments of electronic tools and appliances, 
Indonesia's top categories of manufactured goods exports, fell 0.2% 
year to date through the end of November, and machinery and 
mechanical tool exports slumped almost 4% percent over the same 
period.  Most analysts attribute the weak manufacturing export 
performance to low levels of new investment and infrastructure 
bottlenecks. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Table 1:  Top Non-oil and Gas Exports 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
                      Jan-Nov   Jan-Nov     Pct 
                       2006      2005      Change 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Electronics            6.7       6.7       -0.2 
Coal                   5.9       4.2       31.4 
Palm Oil               5.3       4.5       16.7 
Rubber                 5.2       3.2       59.9 
Ash/Residue            4.2       3.0       42.0 
Machinery/Tools        4.0       4.1       -3.6 
Garment(not knitted)   3.1       2.8       10.5 
Wood/Wood Products     3.0       2.8        5.3 
Copper                 1.8       1.1       60.5 
Chemical Organic       1.7       1.4       21.3 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Total Non-oil/Gas 
Exports               71.9      60.1       19.6 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Source: Ministry of Trade 
 
 
JAKARTA 00000309  002 OF 003 
 
 
Price Effects Drive Commodity Export Growth 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Indonesia's export boom largely has resulted from rising 
world commodity prices, driven by strong demand for commodities from 
China and the developed world, rather than from an increase in 
export volumes.  An assessment of rubber, palm oil, cooper ore, and 
nickel ore export values and volumes reveals that, during the first 
three quarters of 2006, export values of these commodities rose 
significantly more rapidly than volumes (YoY).  For example, during 
the first three quarter of 2006 the value of rubber exports rose 85% 
(YoY) compared to a 33% (YoY) increase in export volumes. 
Similarly, the value of crude palm oil exports increased 12% (YoY) 
over the same period, while volumes of crude palm oil exports rose 
by roughly half that amount.  In the case of metals, the value of 
cooper and nickel ore rose 12% and 4.5% (YoY), respectively, over 
the same period, but the volume of these exports declined 19% and 
46% (YoY), respectively.  (Note:  We based YoY comparisons on actual 
figures for 2006 and estimated figures for 2005, using 75% of total 
2005 export value and volume figures as a proxy for actual January 
to September 2005 figures.  This likely provides a conservative 
estimate of YoY increases given that commodity export values and 
volumes generally stay constant or increase during the fourth 
quarter.  Volume data for coal exports in 2006 were not available. 
End note.) 
 
Commodity Exports to China Continue to Expand Rapidly 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶6. (U) As illustrated in Table 2, non-oil and gas exports to China 
continued to increase rapidly during the first eleven months of 
2006, rising 36% (YoY).  Non-oil and gas exports to Korea and 
Australia also rose rapidly, at 41% and 40%, respectively, albeit 
from a lower base.  A rapid increase in commodity exports to China 
comprised the bulk of the increase in total Indonesian non-oil 
exports to that country.  Data on growth in Indonesian commodity 
exports to China during the first three quarter of the year reveal 
that the value of rubber and palm oil exports to China increased 
148% and 97% percent (YoY), respectively.  Conversely, wood and wood 
product exports to China decreased slightly during the first three 
quarters of 2006 on a YoY basis, in line with slower overall growth 
in Indonesian wood exports.  (Note:  2005 direction of trade data 
for other commodity categories currently is not available.  In 
addition, the value of 2005 commodity exports to China used in this 
calculation is 75% of total 2005 figures, reflecting the data 
limitations described in the previous section.  End note.) 
 
¶7. (U) Japan, the European Union (EU) and the United States remained 
Indonesia's three largest export destinations through the first 11 
months of 2006, with exports to those areas increasing a healthy 
25%, 16%, and 14%, respectively.   Growth in both commodity and 
manufacturing exports (particularly garment exports) drove the 
expansion of trade with these trading partners.  As indicated in 
Table 2, growth in Indonesia's exports to Japan, the EU, the US and 
China accounted for 53% of the country's total non-oil export 
growth. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Table 2:  2006 Direction of Trade, $ billions 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
               Jan-Nov    Jan-Nov   YoY Pct    Growth 
                2006       2005     Change    Contrib* 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Japan            10.9       8.7       25        19 
European Union   10.7       9.2       16        13 
United States     9.8       8.6       14        10 
Singapore         7.1       6.4       11         6 
China             4.9       3.6       36        11 
Malaysia          3.5       2.9       21         5 
Korea             3.1       2.2       41         8 
Taiwan            2.1       1.6       31         4 
Australia         1.4       1.0       40         4 
Other            18.4      15.9       16        21 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Total            71.9      60.1       20       100 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
* Percentage contribution to total non-oil export growth rate. 
Source: Ministry of Trade 
 
 
JAKARTA 00000309  003 OF 003 
 
 
Export Performance in Line with Regional Competitors 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶8. (U) Indonesia's export growth is largely in line with regional 
competitors, such as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and 
Singapore, but lags regional economic giants China and India. 
According to Citigroup, total exports from Malaysia, Thailand, the 
Philippines and Singapore will grow in an estimated range of 13-16% 
(YoY) in 2006, slightly below Indonesia's 17.6% export growth this 
year.  Looking more closely at data for Malaysia, one of Indonesia's 
closest competitors in terms of export composition, Indonesia's 
non-oil and gas exports again compare favorably, growing over 19% 
(YoY) during the first 11 months of 2006, in contrast to 10% (YoY) 
growth in Malaysia.  However, Malaysia outperformed Indonesia in 
terms of exports of electronic goods, with Malaysian electronic 
exports expanding 7% YoY during the January to November period, 
compared to the 0.2% contraction in electronics exports in 
Indonesia.  As state above, Indonesia's export performance 
significantly lags that of China and India, where analysts expect 
exports to expand by 25% or more (YoY) in 2006. 
 
Comment: Export Growth a Blessing and a Curse 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Despite record exports and respectable GDP growth in 2006, 
Indonesia's open unemployment rate has remained stagnant at 10.3 
percent throughout 2005 and 2006.  In the short term, rising world 
commodity prices will likely continue to support export and GDP 
growth in Indonesia.  Surging demand for basic commodities from 
China and other emerging markets has shown no signs of abating to 
date, and demand for crude palm oil and other biofuel feedstocks is 
rising in the EU and other developed country markets.  In the longer 
term, however, continuing low levels of investment in Indonesia's 
manufacturing sector and growing infrastructure bottlenecks will 
likely limit Indonesia's ability to maintain current export and GDP 
growth levels if commodity prices flatten out.  If or when this 
happens, it will be all the more important for the GOI to have put 
in place meaningful reforms making the investment climate more 
transparent and competitive. 
 
PASCOE