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RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 060838Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 4669
RUEHRK/AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK 0274
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2940

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HELSINKI 000075 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND'S 2007 ELECTION:  CONSERVATIVES MAKE THE 
FIRST MOVES IN A QUIET CAMPAIGN 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
¶1. (U) January marked the unofficial opening of 
Finland's Parliamentary election campaign, and most of 
the country's eight political parties appear a bit slow 
coming out of the gate.  To be fair, the election is 
still nearly two months away -- quite a long time, in 
the Finnish context -- and most candidates and their 
organizations are still in the early phases of defining 
agendas.  Some first-time candidates have started 
pounding the pavement in their districts, but many 
relatively "safe" incumbents admit to us that they are 
unlikely to begin campaigning in earnest until as late 
as the final four weeks before the vote.  Electioneering 
is always a low-key affair in this Nordic welfare state, 
to be sure.  The various parties' platforms differ 
little, if at all; more importantly, clean campaigns, 
respectful tactics and consensus politics are highly 
prized by candidates and voters alike.  Still, even 
Finns have commented on what appears to be a notable 
lack of urgency. 
 
¶2. (SBU) But lest our readers think party politics are 
actually boring in Finland, we begin our analysis of 
March's Parliamentary elections with a look at the 
Conservative Party (CONS) -- which, as an outsider 
looking in, has certainly stepped out more boldly and 
more colorfully than the other parties at this early 
stage.  CONS is Finland's third largest party, but after 
four years in opposition it desperately wants to return 
to government.  Early polls, press gossip and rumors 
within all the parties suggest, however, that the 
incumbent Center Party (CEN) / Social Democratic (SDP) 
coalition will be difficult to dislodge, and CONS 
strategists admit that they face very long odds.  The 
governing CEN-SDP coalition has presided over good 
economic times; the SDP boasts, by most accounts, the 
nation's best electoral machinery; and CEN Prime Minster 
Matti Vanhanen has rebounded in stunning fashion from 
the thumping he took in last year's Presidential 
elections to become Finland's single most popular 
politician going into March's contest.  Perhaps more 
importantly, senior SDP and CEN politicians have openly 
stated that they like the current working relationship 
and believe it works for the country as a whole. 
 
The Niinisto Factor 
------------------- 
¶3. (U) Still, CONS has made some early splashes.  By far 
the biggest has been the surprise candidacy of Sauli 
Niinisto, the popular former finance minister and  EU 
central banker who almost scored a dramatic upset 
victory in last year's Presidential election.  Incumbent 
Tarja Halonen (SDP), an icon in Finland with especially 
strong support from women across the political spectrum, 
was widely expected to win re-election in a landslide. 
Niinisto's brash, energetic campaign focused on security 
policy, entrepreneurship, Finland's "European" identity, 
and a rejection of the isolationist or exceptionalist 
strain in SDP politics.  The Conservatives were 
particularly successful in appealing to younger voters, 
effectively countering a trend in which the SDP had been 
the "hip choice" for younger Finns. After losing to 
President Tarja Halonen by fewer than three percentage 
points, Niinisto vowed to quit politics once and for 
all.  However, his unexpected return to the ring has 
provided a shot in the arm for the Conservatives at the 
polls, and even other party strategists expect CONS to 
pick up at least two additional places in the 200-seat 
Parliament on the strength of Niinisto's coattails 
alone.  Niinisto, a great campaigner, has chosen to run 
in the Uusimaa district, Finland's largest and most 
competitive -- and the home of Niinisto's biggest rival, 
CEN Chairman and Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen. 
 
¶4. (SBU) But if Niinisto's entry in the race has CEN and 
SDP looking over their shoulders, it has also caused an 
unwelcome disturbance within his own party.  The 
Conservatives' Party Leader is the young (35 years old), 
capable and charismatic Jyrki Katainen -- but Niinisto 
is the closest thing in Finland to a superstar.  Except 
in the rarest of circumstances, party leaders 
automatically serve as prime ministerial candidates, and 
both Katainen and Niinisto have gone to great lengths 
publicly to make clear that Jyrki (often referred to in 
the press as "Jyrki-Boy") is in charge.  However, in a 
recent poll in which voters were hypothetically asked, 
"Who would make the best Prime Minister?", Katainen ran 
a distant third. (Vanhanen clocked in at a whopping 44%, 
compared to 12% for SDP Chair Eero Heinaluoma and a mere 
 
HELSINKI 00000075  002 OF 003 
 
 
9% for Katainen.  Comment:  Heinaluoma's poor showing -- 
and his widely-rumored unpopularity within his own party 
-- also represent internal wild cards for the SDP and 
will be examined septel.)  More strikingly, almost a 
third of self-identified CONS voted indicated a 
preference for Niinisto as their PM candidate despite 
his name not even being on the poll questionnaire. 
While our contacts within CONS have nothing but respect 
for Katainen, some strategists are already whispering 
about the potential need for a change in leadership if 
CONS has any hope of returning to government.  Power 
struggles are not common or welcome in Finnish politics, 
but one may indeed loom for the Conservatives. 
 
BOURGEOIS COOPERATION OR, MY FRIEND'S BEST ENEMY 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶5. (SBU) Leadership squabbles notwithstanding, CONS has 
also managed to roil the waters by resurrecting a call 
for a "non-socialist" alliance -- or "bourgeois 
cooperation," as the Finns are fond of saying -- to 
defeat the SDP.  A year ago, after finishing a lonely 
third in the Presidential elections, PM Vanhanen shocked 
the SDP by asking CEN voters to back Niinisto, despite 
his close relationship with his SDP coalition partners 
and his renowned cooperation with President Halonen. 
The move almost gave Niinisto the victory.  This time, 
the "non-socialist" trial balloon was floated by 
Conservative MEP Alex Stubb (a close personal friend of 
Niinisto), who called on CONS and CEN to join forces 
with two small parties -- the Swedish People's Party 
(SPP) and the Christian Democrats (CDP)-- to form a 
right-leaning coalition.  Stubb even offered as a model 
the coalition that unseated the SDP in Sweden last year. 
(NOTE: Unlike in much of Europe, the CDP is tiny in 
Finland, currently holding six seats in parliament.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) "Bourgeois cooperation" may ultimately be a 
tough sell.  A Finland-Gallup poll quickly revealed that 
while 42% of voters favor an SDP-CONS governing 
coalition, only 18% supported CONS-CEN combination.  Our 
contacts in the small SPP and CDP tell us they are not 
overly interested in being swallowed up by what would 
amount to a big party alliance, and without them CEN and 
CONS would both have to increase significantly their 
share of seats in Parliament (in which case, the CDP and 
SPP would probably be happy to jump on the bandwagon). 
More importantly, the only thing that really unites CONS 
and CEN in Finland is the desire to beat the SDP. 
Generalizing grossly, Center Party voters are rural and 
agricultural; very conservative on social issues; 
adamantly opposed to nuclear power, EU enlargement and 
Finnish NATO membership; and staunch supporters of high 
taxes and the welfare state, so long as they translate 
into farm subsidies and good rural transportation 
infrastructure.  Generalizing again, Conservative voters 
are overwhelmingly urban and business based; arguably 
Finland's most liberal on social issues; pro-nuke, pro- 
EU and even pro-NATO; and staunch supporters of the 
welfare state, so long as there are the appropriate tax 
breaks for entrepreneurs.  And in the end, CEN and SDP 
have made good bedfellows over the past four years and 
show every sign of wanting to continue that 
relationship.  (Comment:  Another small-party wild card 
will be the Greens, who badly want to get into 
government -- possibly as a replacement for the SPP. 
Septel will look in further detail at the small-party 
dynamic.) 
 
SDP TEMPERS FLARE 
----------------- 
¶7. (SBU)  The idea nonetheless prompted emotional 
responses from the SDP.  Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja 
-- who has emerged from Finland's EU Presidency as an 
enormously popular candidate who could create some 
coattails of his own -- told journalists that he was not 
interested in an SDP-CONS government and accused the 
Conservatives of having turned "hard to the right" since 
the 2003 election.  SDP Interior Minister Rajamaki 
stepped outside the bounds of Finnish consensus politics 
by stating publicly that a CEN-CONS coalition would 
offer policies and values that "threaten primarily 
Finland's internal security."  As for the CEN reaction, 
PM Vanhanen has played down any discussion of 
"bourgeois" cooperation (his stunt in the Presidential 
elections notwithstanding), although few observers have 
failed to notice that his senior advisor for economic 
affairs has been one of the few outspoken CEN voices 
arguing in favor of a CONS-CEN alliance. 
 
COMMENT 
 
HELSINKI 00000075  003 OF 003 
 
 
------- 
¶8. (U) The Finnish campaign will likely pick up steam 
once the current Parliament finishes its final session 
in early February and the parties begin going at it in 
earnest.  In particular, a series of televised debates 
will give voters the opportunity to take a closer look 
at the men and women who would be Finland's next PM, and 
to hear their parties' platforms and positions on key 
issues.  Subsequent telegrams will look at the 
personalities and strategies of the other large parties, 
the role of the small parties, key personalities, and 
impacts on US interests. 
WARE