VZCZCXRO4013
RR RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHGZ #0216 0460727
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150727Z FEB 07 ZDK RUEHCB #7287 0520545
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5803
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS GUANGZHOU 000216 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PACOM FOR FPA 
STATE FOR EAP/CM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI CH TW
SUBJECT: South China View on Ma Ying-jeou Situation: Will 
the "Chaos" and Political Jockeying Stabilize Cross-Strait 
Relations? 
 
REF: A) Beijing 1064 
     B) Taipei 376 
 
(U) This document is sensitive but unclassified, please 
protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Professor Zhang Wensheng, Deputy Director of the 
Political Research Office at Xiamen University's Taiwan 
Research Institute, told Congenoff February 14 that 
Taiwan's political scene will be "chaotic" in the aftermath 
of Ma Ying-jeou's indictment and resignation as KMT 
Chairman.  Zhang believes the political struggle between 
and within the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green coalitions will 
intensify, especially as politicians vie aggressively for 
designation as the 2008 presidential nominee.  Zhang 
expects the "chaos" to last until the summer, adding that 
Chen Shui-bian may feel less pressured to use the Taiwan 
independence issue to draw attention away from his own 
corruption problems. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Despite his indictment and resignation, Ma's 
declaration that he will still run in the presidential 
election has led to an earlier start of the 2008 campaign 
than expected, Zhang said.  Zhang said that Wang Jyn-ping 
will lose no time in positioning himself for the KMT 
nomination, though he might back off a bit if former KMT 
Chairman Lien Chan were to contest it as well.  Zhang also 
thought that Lee Teng-hui, leader of the Taiwan Solidarity 
Union, had moderated his pro-independence stance as a 
prelude to an alliance with Wang.  The number of DPP 
candidates will widen, in Zhang's view, as they become 
encouraged by the possible loss of one of the KMT's 
strongest and most popular leader. 
 
GOLDBERG