VZCZCXRO8024
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0437 0571758
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 261758Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7648
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS DAKAR 000437 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR S/ES-O, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA 
PARIS FOR POL - D,ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP 3: WADE 
WAITING FOR A DEFINITIVE 50 PERCENT 
 
REF: A. DAKAR 0427 
 
     ¶B. DAKAR 0426 
 
¶1.  (SBU) President Abdoulaye Wade is leading the first round 
presidential pack throughout the country and is ahead by 
surprising margins (80 percent in Touba) and in unexpected 
areas (Podor).  The Government made an early claim that Wade 
was winning 57 percent, but the opposition is brandishing 
unofficial and partial vote tallies to claim Wade will finish 
with 48 percent.  Both sides are conducting a psychological 
war designed to comfort supporters, demoralize rivals, and 
influence first the National Vote Count Commission 
(Commission Nationale de Recensement des Votes) and then the 
Constitutional Council, which will determine official 
results.  Wade is ahead by a long distance, but it is not yet 
clear that he has surpassed 50 percent need to avoid a second 
round. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) With over 60 percent of the vote counted, turnout 
appears to have been between 60 and 80 percent.  Former Prime 
Minister Idrissa Seck and Socialist Party leader Ousmane 
Tanor Dieng and are in a tight race for second place with 
percentages in the mid-teens.  Moustapha Niasse, earlier 
considered a contender, has apparently collapsed to single 
digits.  Ziguinchor Mayor Robert Sagna, who deserted the 
Socialists to run an independent campaign, is suffering the 
embarrassment of losing to Wade in the Casamance.  None of 
the other ten presidential candidates garnered significant 
support. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) There was little or no violence in the election, 
and the situation in the streets is calm but could depend on 
how the vote count shapes up and how the Vote Count 
Commission interprets results and calls the winner.  The 
public would have calmly accepted a clear result leading to a 
second round.  Alternatively, a clear Wade victory such as 
the 57 percent claimed by the Prime Minister would have 
discouraged even opposition diehards from taking to the 
streets.  If results are very close to 50 percent, though, 
either Wade or opposition backers could end up disappointed 
and angry. 
JACOBS