VZCZCXRO5048
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHBS #0477/01 0431558
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121558Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4354
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000477 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR OES/ENV, EB/OGE AND EUR/UBI 
USDOC FOR 3133/USFCS/OIO/EUR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV EINV BE
SUBJECT:  What does Climate Change Mean for Belgium? 
 
Ref: 06 Brussels 1637 
 
¶1. (U) Introduction and Summary. Publication of the UN's 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report has raised 
the profile of the issue in Belgium and given it a place in 
pre-election debate.  Belgium has a mixed record on 
environmental policy (noted reftel), and its complex 
federal structure that devolves much environmental 
responsibility to the regions slows decision making.  The 
clear political and public consensus that "something needs 
to be done" on global warming should help Belgium respond, 
however, even though the EU Commission noted in January 
that Belgium is lagging in achieving its Kyoto obligations. 
Government measures to date have focused on incentives 
rather than fines or compulsory limits to CO2 emissions. 
Belgian dedication to the ecological cause will be tested 
once EU-mandated restrictions and costs begin to bite.  End 
Summary. 
 
------------------- 
The Possible Impact 
------------------- 
¶2. (U) With the international scientific consensus agreed 
that climate change is real and lasting, Belgians are now 
taking the issue more seriously.  Scientists, political 
leadership and the public are trying to determine what the 
impact is likely to be on Belgium. 
While the Kyoto protocol obligations have engaged Belgian 
government planners for five years, intense media coverage 
of an abnormally warm Belgian winter and Al Gore's movie 
"An Inconvenient Truth" have pushed the issue to the 
forefront of Belgian public attention. 
 
¶3. (U) Climatologists are still considering the impact of 
global warming on Belgium.  Given that Belgium has, after 
the Netherlands, one of the lowest average elevations (300 
meters) of any Western European country, a rise of 0.8 
meters or more in average sea level (depending on 
scientific assumptions) in coming decades could devastate 
Belgium's coastline and economy.  63,000 hectares (243 
square miles) of land could be lost if sea levels rise as 
foreseen, according to a 2004 study.  The principal ports 
of Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Oostende and Ghent would need 
revamping, and property values in these cities and along 
the entire North Sea coast could plummet.  This would also 
represent a decapitalization of the equity many Belgians 
hold, wth consequences throughout the economy.  While 
Belgium's lynchpin commercial role in Europe's 
transportation logistics may not be endangered, the costs 
of maintaining facilities in the face of harsher 
hurricanes, higher storm surges and greater shore erosion 
could be significant. 
 
¶4. (U) While few Belgian residents would complain about a 
sunnier climate, global warming will be a double-edged 
sword.  The Royal Meteorological Institute spokesman says 
that climate change is already having an impact on 
Belgium's Ardennes piedmont region.  From 1948-1988, the 
region averaged 48 snowy winter days per year; from 1989 to 
2006 the average was only 36 snowy days.  This loss of snow 
days of 40 percent has contributed to a decline in cross- 
country skiing and other winter sports, and their 
associated tourism revenues.  The Institute expects the 
number of snow days to fall further to 50 percent over the 
next 25 years.  Declining snowfall also means declining 
water run-off in springtime, which may change the character 
and cultivation of Belgian farmland. 
 
¶5. (U) According to a 2004 study of Europe funded by 
Greenpeace, climate change could mean 2.4 to 6.6 degree 
warmer summers in Belgium by 2100.  Precipitation is 
expected to rise in the winter, but decline significantly 
in the summer, possibly over 40 percent.  Should a hotter 
average summer, such as in 2006, become the norm, the 
agricultural crop mix would have to change; one agronomist 
says that Belgium might become better for growing wheat 
than for endive and vegetables.  While agriculture accounts 
for less than 2 percent of GDP, major changes in vegetable 
crop supplies could push up food costs and inflation.  A 
rise in average temperatures means many species of fresh- 
water fish and long-lived deciduous trees (oak, beech, 
poplar) could be threatened if they were unable to adapt to 
the changed environment. 
 
--------------------- 
The Public Perception 
--------------------- 
¶6. (U) An IPSOS poll of 1,027 Belgians showed that 83 
percent of them are concerned about climate change. 
 
BRUSSELS 00000477  002 OF 003 
 
 
Francophone and older Belgians are more concerned than 
Flemish speakers and younger Belgians.  To address the 
problem, 78 percent respond that Belgium should use "green 
technologies," 76 percent say they would rely on less 
polluting modes of transportation, and 64% want to reduce 
packaging waste.  When questioned as to what measures they 
personally take at present, eight out of ten respondents 
claim they recycle household garbage, and three out of four 
say they use energy-saving light bulbs.  Nonetheless, only 
16 percent actually use any "green technology" and few are 
willing to spend more to curb climate change. 
 
------------------- 
Government Response 
------------------- 
¶7. (U) Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt reacted to the 
Intergovernmental Climate Change Report by calling for a 
"Kyoto-plus" plan.  Saying that Kyoto was not enough to 
save the planet, Verhofstadt claimed we have to "grit our 
teeth" and in collaboration with the regional governments, 
hammer out a plan to go beyond Kyoto, further limiting 
pollution and CO2 emissions.  He praised Belgian industry 
as already "among the 10 percent most energy efficient in 
the world," and called for greater efforts by households to 
change behavior and cut heating and lighting use. 
 
¶8. (U) Verhofstadt's plan was no surprise considering EU 
pressure.  On January 17, the European Commission asked 
Belgium to reduce the number of emissions permits it 
granted by 7.6 percent (equivalent to 4.8 million tons of 
CO2) in order to achieve its Kyoto targets of a 7.5 percent 
reduction in CO2 emissions by 2012 compared to the 1990 
reference year level.  The Belgian goal is 135.8 million 
tons annually, and as of 2004 the country was still above 
its target.  According to the EC, nearly 360 heavy 
industries and energy companies in Belgium should be 
permitted only 58.5 million tons in emissions permits 
annually, rather than the 63.3 million tons the government 
proposed to issue.  The Commission also faulted Belgium for 
being too quick to buy emission rights abroad. 
 
¶9. (U) Among the regions the call for further emission cuts 
is not welcome.  Walloon Environment Minister Benoit Lutgen 
claims his region already took a disproportionate share of 
cuts in the regional allocations to meet Kyoto, and that 
commercial industry took on most of the effort, compared to 
consumers and the transportation sector.  The Union of 
Walloon Enterprises environment director claims firms in 
the south are not getting the credit they deserve for cuts 
already made in previous years.  A similar complaint was 
voiced by ExxonMobil in the port of Antwerp.  A Walloon 
electricity supplier expressed the belief that further 
emissions cuts will result in lower energy production and 
higher prices.  Flemish Environment Minister Kris Peeters 
also expressed disappointment at the Commission decision, 
and said Flemish industry had already reached the limit of 
possible emissions cuts.  VOKA, the Flemish Employers 
Association, said further cuts would cost 300 million euros 
and involve cutting jobs. 
 
------------------- 
Push Comes to Shove 
------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) Belgian measures to reduce CO2 emissions until 
now have been largely administrative and jaw-boning: 
distributing allocations to underscore the value of CO2 
emissions, and urging manufacturers and energy distributors 
to curb pollution without imposing specific penalties.  On 
the consumer side, Belgian tax law has been larded with 
incentives to households to renovate heating and insulation 
systems (up to 2600 euros tax credit for 2007), and to buy 
hybrid low-pollution cars (up to 4270 euros tax credit 
depending on the model).  It is not clear how Verhofstadt's 
"Kyoto-plus" plan - nor the eventual coalition compromise 
that will have to be hammered out - will distribute the 
pain among industry, the transport sector, and consumers. 
Measures that would entail actual costs with an impact on 
business bottom lines and consumer pocketbooks will 
inevitably highlight differences among political parties in 
the run-up to federal elections June 10.  How heavily 
voters will weight environmental platforms in choosing 
parliamentarians remains to be seen. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Among the costly and thorny issues Belgium must 
address is the future role of nuclear energy ? until now 
Belgium's savior in curbing CO2 emissions.  The issue is 
more and more openly debated but still is an orphan to most 
of the political parties.  The nuclear power issue in the 
election campaign will be covered septel. 
 
BRUSSELS 00000477  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
IMBRIE