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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000313 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL BR XM SCUL
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA'S GROWING MILITARY PROWESS AND CLAIMS 
AGAINST GUYANA WORRY FORMER BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT SARNEY 
 
REF: 06 BRASILIA 2411 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  Ambassador Sobel gave a dinner on 
February 13 for veteran political figures that drew out 
opinions on political reform, relations with the U.S., party 
behavior, and grave concerns about a perceived growing menace 
from Venezuela.  Guests included a former president; the 
president of the Senate and past justice minister; the 
communications minister; a past president of the Supreme 
Court, past justice minister and probable next leader of 
Brazil's largest political party; the chairman of the Senate 
committee on the Constitution, Citizenship and Justice; and a 
prominent Green Party politician.  Former president Jose 
Sarney spoke at length about Brazil's security posture in the 
region and his preoccupation over the threat of instability 
along the northern border from irredentist Venezuelan claims 
against Guyana.  Sarney dismissed any cross-border threat 
from Bolivia.  Several participants urged the USG to increase 
youth, educational, and international visitor exchanges with 
Brazil.  They underscored the importance of personal contacts 
in fortifying the bilateral relationship.  End summary. 
 
Political reform 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel asked about the outlook for reform 
in Brazil during the current congress (2007-2011).  Senate 
president Renan Calheiros implied the system needed to be 
reformed by noting that Brazil's system of uninominal 
elections is now almost unique in the world.  Deputy Sarney 
Filho criticized the system for its undesirable effect of 
making candidates from the same party adversaries at election 
time, since they have to run not only against other parties' 
candidates, but against their own party colleagues to try to 
get a large enough percentage of the vote to be elected. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Ambassador asked Calheiros what major reforms could 
also be accomplished now.  Calheiros replied that earlier 
that day (February 13) the Senate had approved legislation to 
improve business conditions and the environment, and the 
government had presented a reform program.  This was a first 
step, he said.  He said that an ongoing problem is that a 
project in one house of congress may not find receptivity in 
the other house.  Reform is needed, he said, "to guarantee 
the country."  He added that he hopes to see the passage of 
new laws on regulatory agencies and the use of provisional 
measures (MPs).  His mention of MPs generated an animated 
discussion around the table about what was wrong with 
provisional measures and why they should be abolished. 
(Note: A provisional measure is issued by the president, has 
the force of law, but Congress can immediately strike it 
down.  If an MP is not approved or rejecte within 45 days, 
Congress is forced to vote on the MP and nothing else can be 
considered.  For this reason, MPs can cause legislative 
gridlock until Congress acts, while in the meantime the MP 
has force of law.  If no action is taken within four months 
the MP expires, but the president can reissue it in the next 
legislatve session.  End note.)  Calheiros also said there 
is much work to do on the budget, as well as on he 
consolidation of laws.  He repeated the familar complaint 
that some laws are passed, but do no "take" (nao pegam). 
Continuing to point out how much work the Congress has before 
it, Calheiros said over 200 supplemental laws are waiting to 
be voted on by Congress. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel offered to try to bring past 
chairmen of our political parties to consult on political 
reform, provided the Brazilians could develop an agenda to 
put their talents to work.  Sen. Sarney replied that he would 
be willing to help organize such a visit.  The Ambassador 
also said he was interested in the Senate and Chamber of 
Deputies television stations, and offered to bring U.S. 
leaders to discuss how best to use them.  The Ambassador said 
he would also like to invite U.S. Supreme Court justices to 
 
BRASILIA 00000313  002 OF 003 
 
 
Brazil.  Guests agreed this would be very useful.  Nelson 
Jobim also said Brazilians need contacts in the U.S. 
Congress. 
 
More Exchanges, Please 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Senator Jose Sarney, a former president of Brazil 
(1985-90), said that in spite of much public comment that the 
bilateral relationship is good, the missing element is 
personal contact.  He said ongoing personal contact between 
Brazilians and Americans has been lost.  He, Senator 
Magalhaes and Minister Costa praised USG exchange programs. 
Costa thought they no longer existed.  Ambassador said we 
still have an active exchange program and invited them to 
advise him of deserving candidates.  Sarney spoke highly of 
youth exchanges and recounted that he had sent his children 
and grandchildren on them to the U.S. and hosted a 
participant from the U.S.  Sarney Filho echoed the point and 
said his son is studying at Purdue University.  He said 
university exchanges are important.  There are many, many 
Asians studying at U.S. schools, he said, and asked why there 
are not more Brazilians.  Ambassador mentioned that while 
there are 100,000 Indians studying in the U.S. there are only 
6,000 Brazilians.  Ambassador noted he had discussed the 
subject with Education Minister Fernando Haddad.  Sarney, 
Magalhaes and Costa recalled that they had participated in a 
USG exchange for young leaders and it had had a great impact 
on them. 
 
More Engagement, Please 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel asked where the USG could be of 
greatest help in terms of political reform.  Senator 
Magalhaes said Brazil needs more engagement (entrosamento) on 
the part of the USG.  He added that this would go a long way 
to avoiding unnecessary antipathy toward the U.S. 
 
Venezuelan Danger 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Senator Sarney made a lengthy exposition on 
Brazilian history, including Brazil's historical admiration 
for the United States, the U.S. influence on figures such as 
Tiradentes and Ruy Barbosa, Brazil's preference for peace and 
democracy, and, in his view, Brazil's resultant aversion to 
hegemony in its foreign policy.  Ambassador said he gives 
Brazil much credit for its patience in the face of worrisome 
developments in Venezuela and Bolivia.  Sarney responded that 
Brazil does not want to interfere in others' affairs. 
Interference has a price to pay and Brazil does not want to 
pay that price, he explained.  Sarney continued by recalling 
that military regimes have historically liquidated many 
political classes, in some cases leaving only those who had 
managed to live clandestinely.  As a result, in Latin 
America, when the era of military dictatorships ended, the 
remaining political actors were mainly on the left.  In 
Brazil, he said, the country has the good fortune to have as 
its president now a worker from Sao Paulo, a major urban 
center.  Compare this, he said, with Bolivia, which has as 
its president a miner.  Sarney then turned to Venezuela.  He 
predicted that in the long run the current leaders will be 
gotten rid of and Venezuela will "go back to normal."  But in 
the meantime Venezuela is becoming a destabilizing military 
power.  He said he was especially concerned about Venezuela's 
irrendentist claims on Guyana's Essequibo region.  He said 
two thirds of Guyana is rich in diamonds and Chavez will 
cause trouble over an area of 170,000 square kilometers. 
Essequibo is hard for a bellicose soldier to resist, said 
Sarney, who predicted that conflict over the region was 
inevitable.  In that event, a burden will fall on Brazil's 
shoulders, he said. 
 
Venezuela, not Bolivia, Is the Threat 
 
 
BRASILIA 00000313  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Ambassador asked about Brazil's border with 
Bolivia.  Sarney said Bolivia would never present a danger to 
Brazilian sovereignty.  Returning immediately to Venezuela, 
Sarney said the scenario he described with Guyana is a 
realistic possibility.  Ambassador asked what it would take 
to get Brazil more engaged in Venezuela.  Sarney responded 
that Brazil must be careful and cannot spend the amount of 
money Venezuela does on foreign programs.  Chile has a 
respectable military because it had prepared itself for war 
with Argentina, while Brazil has not faced war for a hundred 
years, he opined.  (Note: Sarney must have meant a land war 
on Brazil's borders, since he omitted its participation in 
WWII, when its Expeditionary Force of 25,000 troops saw 
action in Europe.  End note.)  Brazil has no outstanding 
border issues, he continued.  "The military issue is the only 
one we have with Venezuela."  He mentioned having been shown 
shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall a document he 
described as a U.S. military paper that forecast only two 
possible major conflicts in the future in the Western 
Hemisphere: one in Central America, and another related to 
indigenous peoples in Brazil.  Brazil had to direct its 
military toward the north along the Amazon because of threats 
from that direction, such as Sendero Luminoso, according to 
Sarney.  If Venezuela becomes a military state it will create 
an imbalance and Brazil will have to safeguard its 
sovereignty, Sarney said.  But Brazil does not have the 
resources, and will have to rely on the NATO umbrella, he 
concluded. 
 
Jobim: Parties Fail to Set the Agenda 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The Ambassador spoke in favor of reaching a 
bilateral investment treaty with Brazil.  Calheiros said the 
government would take steps to simplify conditions for small 
and medium enterprises.  Nelson Jobim, apparently replying 
more to Calheiros than the Ambassador, criticized the way 
parties relate to the government.  He said parties should 
establish policy lines and make their participation in 
government conditional on them, while as things are now, 
parties only demand posts but attach no policy baggage.  He 
said his own party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party 
(PMDB), does this.  Parties should establish the agenda for 
dialogue for the government, while now the government defines 
the agenda for dialogue with the Congress, in Jobim's view. 
Finally, he asked rhetorically when the PMDB had ever raised 
the matter of bilateral investment treaties.  Costa, also 
from the PMDB, replied that the Senate Foreign Relations and 
National Defense Committee still has many pending bills to 
review. 
 
¶10.  (U) Participants: 
U.S. 
Ambassador Clifford Sobel 
Dale Prince, Political Officer (notetaker) 
 
Brazil 
Jose Sarney, Senator and former President 
Helio Costa, Minister of Communications 
Renan Calheiros, Senator, President of the Senate, and former 
Minister of Justice 
Jose Sarney Filho, Federal Deputy, Green Party 
Carlos Alberto Vieira, President of Safra Bank 
Antonio Carlos Magalhaes, Senator and Chairman of the 
Constitution, Citizenship and Justice Committee 
Nelson Jobim, former Supreme Court President and former 
Minister of Justice 
Rodrigo Gabsch, diplomatic adviser to Senator Sarney 
 
SOBEL