VZCZCXRO7944
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0260 0571649
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 261649Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0343
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3652
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1303
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000260 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SR YI
SUBJECT: BELGRADE TOUTS ICJ RULING AS A "NOT GUILTY" VERDICT FOR 
SERBIA 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) In early reactions, Serbian political parties, media and 
the government are touting the ICJ ruling today that Serbia failed 
to prevent genocide in Srebrenica and to punish those responsible as 
a "not guilty" verdict for the people and for the State, and a 
victory for international justice.  Although the reactions we are 
reporting here are only initial, we have seen no acknowledgement of 
the fact that the ICJ apparently seconded an early ruling by ICTY 
that (Bosnian) Serb forces committed genocide at Srebrenica. 
Despite strong urging from the ICJ for Serbia to cooperate better 
with the ICTY that came with the verdict, it is unlikely that this 
verdict will result in any immediate movement on the Mladic front. 
End Summary. 
 
THE ICJ RELEASES IT RULING 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The International Court of Justice released its findings 
February 26 in a three-hour media session and ruled that although 
then-Serbia and Montenegro (SCG) had violated some of its 
obligations as stipulated by the Genocide Convention, it could not 
be held directly responsible for the genocide which occurred in 
Srebrenica (it did not rule that genocide was committed throughout 
Bosnia and Hercegovina, but did make specific reference to genocide 
in Srebrenica).  It found that SCG failed to use its influence to 
prevent genocide, and that it also failed to punish the act -- in a 
direct reference to Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic and other 
indictees.  The court did not order any damages to be paid to 
Bosnia, but stressed that Serbia should immediately fulfill its 
obligations to ICTY. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Official reaction to the announcement has been trickling 
out, and initial signs are that the entrenched political elite will 
trumpet this as a victory for Serbia.  Ivica Dacic from the 
Socialist Party released a statement within an hour of the ruling 
stating that the decision is meaningful not only for the government 
and the people, but also for his party, which was in power during 
the war.  He reportedly also suggested that it undermined the ICTY 
strategy of "command responsibility" for war crimes.  On the other 
hand, a representative from the Belgrade-based NGO Youth Initiative 
for Human Rights expressed his shock at the ruling, and that it did 
nothing for the Serbian people, or for the victims of the massacre. 
On the whole, though, representatives from all the major political 
parties are speaking with one voice and stating that the court has 
proved once and for all that Serbia was not a "co-conspirator" at 
Srebrenica. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Local media outlets, regardless of their political slant, 
are also touting the decision as a victory for Serbia - progressive 
news website B92 claims "Serbia is not guilty of genocide," while 
pro-government Politika's website leads with "SCG: Not Guilty for 
the Genocide in Srebrenica".  International media, meanwhile, are 
highlighting the single ruling against Serbia and stating that 
"Serbia failed to prevent genocide". 
 
¶5. (SBU) Following the broadcast, some Serbian political analysts 
stated that the ruling has shifted the majority of the blame onto 
Republika Srpska, and that this will create significant tensions 
within the Bosnian Federation, making a lasting agreement between 
the entities a difficult - if not impossible - proposition. 
 
Comment 
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¶6. (SBU) We expect a fuller reaction from official Belgrade on 
February 27.  Disappointingly, we have not yet seen any 
acknowledgement (or contrition) over the fact that the ICJ agreed 
with the ICTY (Krstic case) that Serb forces did indeed commit 
genocide at Srebrenica.  This is significant, given the widespread 
public denial of Serb crimes in B-H and elsewhere.  For instance, 
only 30 percent of Serbs, according to numerous polls, believe that 
Serb forces killed large numbers of Muslims in Srebrenica. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Given the total lack of progress on the hunt for Mladic 
under Serbia's "Action Plan," the new ruling will almost certainly 
have little or no effect on the political will of the current 
caretaker government to do more to cooperate with ICTY.  Indeed, 
nationalists here may argue that Serbia -- exonerated of a direct 
role in Srebrenica -- has even less of an obligation to cooperate. 
Hopefully, clearer-minded politicians will turn the argument around 
the other way -- that a democratic Serbia has a moral and legal 
obligation to bring the perpetrators of genocide to justice. 
 
MOORE