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FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5990
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6296
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2256
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JAN 0305
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1260
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1647
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 000028 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC EC
SUBJECT: NEW CONGRESS TAKES OFFICE OPPOSING CORREA'S 
ASSEMBLY 
 
REF: QUITO 3086 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Ecuador's newly-elected Congress takes 
office on January 5 with a decisive majority proposing to 
oppose President-elect Rafael Correa's demands for a 
referendum on whether to convoke a national constituent 
assembly.  Instead, this working majority will seek to pass 
its own constitutional reforms, and reconstitute both the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (which would implement any 
referendum) and the Constitutional Court, which would rule on 
any legal challenges to Correa's proposed referendum.  With 
Correa calling for his supporters to press Congress (from the 
streets, if necessary) to go along with his proposed 
referendum, the stage is set to test Correa's ability to 
mobilize popular support, even before he is sworn in on 
January 15.  End Summary. 
 
Anti-assembly Majority Intent on Reform 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) According to media reports confirmed by our 
political contacts (RefTel), after nearly a month of 
negotiations, a 70-member majority of the 100-member Congress 
(comprised of Alvaro Noboa's PRIAN, Lucio Gutierrez' 
Patriotic Society Party (PSP), the Social Christian Party 
(PSC) and the Christian Democratic Union (UDC)) has agreed on 
a plan to divide up leadership positions in Congress and to 
allocate leadership positions on congressional committees. 
The agreement gives seven committee leadership slots to the 
PRIAN, including the Labor Commission; six to the PSP, 
including Investigations; four to the PSC, including the 
Economic Commission; and one to the UDC, the Constitutional 
Affairs committee, which will be key on reform issues. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) After taking office on January 5, the alliance 
would set to work to pass legislation intended to defend the 
institution of Congress from the threat of Correa's planned 
referendum on a national constituent assembly.  Measures 
would include reducing to 60 days the current one-year debate 
period mandated for constitutional amendments, and possibly 
also using Congress' power of appointment to gain control of 
institutions which could act independently of the Executive 
branch.  These posts include the Supreme Electoral Tribunal 
(TSE), the Constitutional Court, and the offices of Attorney 
and Comptroller General, and the Superintendent of Companies. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The majority would reportedly first act to 
reconstitute the two institutions most directly involved in 
the contest over whether to convoke a referendum on a 
national assembly:  first the TSE and then the Constitutional 
Court.  Parties are already selecting their representatives 
to the seven-member TSE board, for the approval of a simple 
 
majority of Congress.  The constitution provides for the 
board to be composed of representatives from the seven 
political parties or movements with the highest vote count in 
the October election (which would include Correa's PAIS 
movement).  The majority of the new TSE board will likely 
reject any Correa order to organize a referendum without the 
approval of Congress as unconstitutional.  The anti-assembly 
alliance would then use the TSE to convoke the selection of a 
new nine-member Constitutional Court (appointed by Congress 
in 2005, after the removal of then-president Gutierrez) with 
new members for a four-year term.  The current Supreme Court 
would not be replaced. 
 
Correa Calls for Support from the Streets 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) On January 3, after meeting with the indigenous 
Pachakutik movement leaders who pledged to support his 
national assembly proposal, President-elect Correa began a 
new round of campaign-style provincial outreach in an effort 
to thank voters and rally popular support for his proposed 
referendum.  Six hundred "brigade" members of Correa's PAIS 
movement reportedly began going house to house in Guayaquil 
to educate the public about the assembly.  At a public rally 
of a reported 11,000 in a Guayaquil stadium on January 4, 
Correa insisted his second presidential decree after taking 
office on January 15 would be to order the TSE to organize 
the referendum on a constituent assembly.  Calling members of 
the anti-assembly majority "pseudo-representatives" of the 
people, Correa claimed his electoral victory constituted a 
mandate in favor of a new constitution.  Correa denied any 
dispute with Congress or the courts, saying his fight is with 
the "backwardness, corruption and mediocrity" of those who 
would thwart his plans. 
 
¶6.  (U) Minister of Government-designate Gustavo Larrea is 
reportedly negotiating the text of Correa's assembly 
referendum (including rules for the direct election of 100 
national assembly members by province and the selection of 32 
others representing the nation as a whole, minorities and 
migrants) with leaders of the ID, RED, Pachakutik, MPD and 
Socialist parties.  The assembly would meet for six months, 
but could be extended to nine. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Pachakutik leaders on January 4 reportedly called 
out their supporters to block access to the newly-renovated 
Congress building on January 5.  PSP leader and likely VP of 
Congress, Edison Sanchez, called on the Palacio government to 
guarantee Congress' security in the capital, threatening to 
move Congress elsewhere if necessary.  Police sources expect 
several hundred Correa supporters to march to the Congress 
building at approximately 1030 am.  Police have orders to set 
up an extended perimeter to prevent the demonstrators from 
approaching and gaining access to the building. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Correa reportedly denied any intention to urge his 
supporters to the streets to press Congress or the TSE to 
permit his proposed referendum, but claimed it was within the 
public's right to do show their support for the government 
"in the streets."  Answering speculation that the incoming 
president of Congress (likely Jorge Cevallos of Noboa's 
opposition PRIAN) would refuse to swear Correa in as 
president, Correa announced that by agreement with his 
predecessor, he would receive the presidential sash directly 
from outgoing president Alfredo Palacio. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) With both sides hardening their public positions in 
recent days, Congress appears set for an initial skirmish 
with Correa over the constituent assembly.  While the 
opposition has the numbers to control institutions which 
could block Correa's referendum, the potential for pressure 
from the streets is making the opposition skittish.  Lucio 
Gutierrez' PSP appears the most likely opposition alliance 
member to consider a middle path, provided its own interest 
in punishing members of the Palacio government are addressed. 
 But compromise seems unlikely to emerge until after an 
initial attempt by the opposition to use its numbers to 
advance its own agenda.  Correa will need to mount a strong 
showing from his supporters on the streets of Quito to force 
any deal on Congress. 
JEWELL