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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #0110/01 0122200
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 122200Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6083
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6326
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2275
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JAN 0324
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1288
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1695
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 000110 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: LUCIO FLIPS TO PRO-ASSEMBLY MAJORITY 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  In a dramatic reversal, ex-president 
Lucio Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party pulled out of a 
rightist alliance opposing president-elect Rafael Correa's 
constituent assembly proposal and formed a new pro-assembly 
majority counting 54 votes in the new Congress and a majority 
in the new Supreme Electoral Tribunal.  The shift avoids a 
confrontation between the new government and Congress, and 
puts the constituent assembly on what most regard as a 
constitutionally-valid track.  Should it endure, the new 
majority could also permit the selection of a new Attorney 
General, a key Gutierrez goal.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The new majority is composed of the PSP (24 seats), 
ID (8), PRE (6), Pachakutik (6), RED (4), MPD (3), Socialist 
(1), and the Nuevo Pais Party (1), and the ARE (1).  The 
alliance also holds the balance of four votes in the 
newly-appointed Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), and on 
January 12 PSP representative Jorge Acosta was elected TSE 
president.  Acosta immediately announced his intention to 
approve the referendum and restore Gutierrez' political 
rights, which the former TSE had stripped, preventing him 
from running for office for two years. 
 
Why Now? 
-------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Gutierrez first signaled his party's vacillation on 
January 9, calling for direct dialogue with Correa.  Correa 
publicly responded positively, while continuing to lambaste 
the political party Mafias that composed the anti-assembly 
majority in Congress.  The PRIAN-led majority and Congress 
had planned to select an Attorney General (rumored to be 
chosen by the PRIAN) and Comptroller General (rumored to be 
chosen by the PSP) in a special session on the afternoon of 
January 11.  When the Ambassador met with him that morning, 
President of Congress Jorge Cevallos (PRIAN) seemed sanguine 
about the solidity of his 69-member majority, including the 
PSP.  The debate over constitutional reforms would take place 
after the majority acted to control these two key positions, 
he said. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) But talks between PRIAN leader Alvaro Noboa and the 
Gutierrez camp had broken down around midnight the previous 
evening over Noboa's stubborn resistance to consensus on the 
attorney general and comptroller general positions.  An 
exasperated Gutierrez--whose efforts to forge an alliance 
with Noboa during the presidential campaign similarly 
imploded--gave up and decided to change course.  Gutierrez 
reportedly spoke to Correa around one a.m. as the new deal 
began to take shape.  The following morning, Gutierrez and 
other party leaders were meeting with Correa MinGov-designate 
Gustavo Larrea at a local hotel, and shortly after noon 
announced the pro-assembly alliance had been formed.  Their 
first declared act was to boycott the special session of 
Congress later that afternoon, denying a quorum for the 
selection of an attorney general.  The alliance would follow 
due process by awaiting the National Judicial Council's 
recommendations on candidates for that position. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Gutierrez has publicly claimed his party's switch 
came out of frustration that the PRIAN-PSP-PSC-UDC alliance 
in Congress had delayed acting on constitutional reforms.  He 
also explained the decision as a move to avert confrontation 
between Congress and the incoming Correa administration and 
to bring the referendum on a constituent assembly into 
conformance with the constitution by offering Congressional 
support.  The PSP would actively seek representation in the 
assembly, he confirmed, and Congress would remain in session 
alongside the constituent assembly. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) On January 12 Gutierrez stated that any constituent 
assembly is by nature unbounded, but expressed hope that 
agreement could be reached with Correa to focus its 
deliberations.  Lucio's brother Gilmar Gutierrez declared 
that any new constitution created by the assembly should be 
submitted for approval to the people by referendum, before 
taking effect. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Gutierrez' move surprised most here except Gustavo 
Larrea, Correa's MinGov-designate and point man on the 
assembly, who publicly crowed that "I told you we would avert 
the train wreck."  The assembly remains vulnerable to a 
challenge to its constitutionality in the PSC-controlled 
Constitutional Court, but congressional approval (combined 
with still widespread public support) will make it less 
likely for that challenge to prosper--and opponents may 
decide now not even to try.  The new coalition, like its 
predecessor which survived only one week, is inherently 
unstable, and will be strained by the selection of the new 
Attorney General.  That position is crucial for the interests 
of both Gutierrez' PSP, which hopes to prosecute outgoing 
President Palacio for corruption.  The big loser is Noboa, 
who would have had an Attorney General of his choosing and 
remained a key arbiter of future reforms in Congress. 
Bucaram's PRE is one of the winners, and may press its 
perennial demand that its leader be cleared of corruption 
charges and permitted to return to Ecuador.  Bucaram is still 
anathema to many here, including members of the new majority, 
and his temporary return in 2005 contributed to the fall of 
Gutierrez' own government. 
JEWELL