VZCZCXRO2989
RR RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHFR #0218/01 0191422
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191422Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4297
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHMRE/AMCONSUL MARSEILLE 1488
RUEHSR/AMCONSUL STRASBOURG 0302

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000218 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/WE, INR, R 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC PREL KPAO FR
SUBJECT:  WEEKLY MEDIA WRAP-UP: IRAN; SECRETARY RICE IN THE MIDDLE 
EAST; PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SARKOZY.  JANUARY 19, 2007. 
 
 
PARIS 00000218  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Iran dominated international news this week with the visit 
to Latin America of Iranian president Ahmadinejad, the deployment of 
an American aircraft carrier to the Gulf (described as a "warning to 
Iran" by right-of-center Le Figaro on January 16); and President 
Chirac's initiative to send a French envoy to Teheran ostensibly to 
stabilize Lebanon and to "avoid isolating Iran" from the 
international community (January 17 edition of Le Figaro).  On 
January 19, left-of-center Le Monde's editorial questioned Jacques 
Chirac's "going it alone... when he had always previously 
coordinated with the U.S. concerning Lebanon... and the Iranian 
nuclear issue."  Secretary Rice's trip to the Middle East this week 
was deemed "futile" by left-wing Liberation on January 15, and most 
commentaries agreed that the U.S.'s top priority is no longer the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict but Iraq and Iran.  UMP leader and 
Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy officially became his party's 
candidate for the presidential race in France.  The national dailies 
tended to praise Sarkozy's acceptance message while several regional 
commentaries likened the UMP convention to the "coronation of 
Napoleon" and said that Sarkozy was "hailed like a Roman emperor," 
(Regional Le Midi Libre and Le Courrier Picard respectively on 
January 15).  End Summary. 
 
---- 
IRAN 
---- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On January 17, left-of-center Le Monde's headline announced 
that President Chirac was "attempting to open diplomatic dialogue 
with Iran just when the latter is facing UN sanctions."  The French 
president would like to send a high ranking envoy to Tehran to 
discuss the situation in Lebanon.  "President Chirac intends to make 
Lebanon one of his top foreign policy priorities in the period 
leading up to the presidential election...  To this end he has 
organized a Donor's Conference in Paris on January 25...  The 
objective is to send a signal to the Iranian authorities that 
dialogue can be maintained in spite of UNSC Resolution 1737 calling 
for sanctions." 
 
¶3. (SBU) On January 18, Catholic La Croix's Jean-Christophe Ploquin 
noted that the "Iran nuclear issue no longer unites the U.S. and 
France as it once did... and the rift is growing...  The Bush 
Administration appears to be ready for a test of strength between 
the U.S. and Iran over the latter's influence in Iraq while Jacques 
Chirac, for his part, is trying to guarantee the stability of 
Lebanon where Iran has a large degree of influence via Hezbollah... 
The elections in Iran showed that the issue of its nuclear program, 
which has led to the isolation of Iran on the international scene, 
is not perceived as a priority by the Iranian people...  Jacques 
Chirac may have had this shifting political situation in mind 
thinking the timing perfect to convince Tehran to cool its heels. 
But it may already be too late because of the new American strategy 
in Iraq which will give new impetus to the most anti-Western faction 
in Tehran and force those who are favorable to a possible overture 
to close ranks." 
 
¶4. (SBU) The unsigned editorial in left-of-center Le Monde on 
January 19, "Going it Alone," opined that President Chirac's 
objectives vis-a-vis Iran are comprehensible and laudable but the 
way he wants to carry them out is strange... just when the UNSC is 
trying to implement sanctions on Iran...  The concern is that the 
spiral of sanctions will, as in Iraq in 2003, lead to a U.S. 
military intervention.  Chirac therefore, is trying a last-ditch 
effort to find a solution to the Iranian problem...  But what can he 
give Tehran in exchange for cooperation on Lebanon?  The recognition 
of Iran as an influential regional actor?  Tehran is seeking that 
from the U.S., not France, and Chirac is not in a position to speak 
in the U.S.'s name...  The problem is that Jacques Chirac has given 
contradictory signals according to the circumstances.  France was in 
the forefront of threatening Iran with sanctions...  By shifting, 
Jacques Chirac is running the risk of endangering his country's 
credibility." 
 
¶5. (SBU) An op-ed in the January 17 edition of left-of-center Le 
Monde by Daniel Vernet noted that "Two months after the defeat of 
his Republican friends during the midterm elections, George Bush has 
not changed strategies in Iraq but has opened a new front in the 
Middle East.  From Baghdad, attention has shifted to Tehran.  The 
shift seems to be the end result of discussions that are as old as 
this administration...  Washington has sent a second aircraft 
carrier to the Gulf.  This could be a deterrence tactic, or a 
starting point for commando operations designed to 'punish' Iran or 
 
PARIS 00000218  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
inflict damage on certain infrastructures, including nuclear...  The 
Bush Administration and Israel are displaying growing impatience 
with the futility of the efforts expended at the UN to attempt to 
prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb.  In order to reach consensus, 
the West was forced to empty the Resolution of all substance. 
Europe, which instigated the diplomatic effort, is not admitting its 
failure but should acknowledge that the unity of the international 
community that it bragged about is a recipe for powerlessness... 
Europe has tried to avoid facing the prospect of deciding between 
American bombings in Iran or the Iranian bomb.  Most likely there 
will be bombings and the bomb." 
 
¶6. (SBU) State-run France Inter radio commentator Dominique 
Bromberger told listeners on January 17 that "just when the American 
president has given the order to reinforce troops in Iraq, Russia 
has announced that it is delivering TOR-M1 missiles to Iran... 
Missiles that can shoot down a jet or intercept a cruise missile and 
that could be deployed around Iran's nuclear installations...  The 
signal sent to Washington is clear.  Russia opposes an intervention 
against Iran and wants this to be known." 
 
--------------------------------- 
SECRETARY RICE IN THE MIDDLE EAST 
 
SIPDIS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) On Monday January 15, right-of-center Le Figaro reported 
that "Condoleezza Rice tried, without too much success, to clear the 
murky political horizon between the Palestinians and the Israelis. 
Considering the difficulty of the task, she prudently announced that 
she would be arriving in the Middle East without a trace of a 
revised peace plan in her pocket." 
 
¶8. (SBU) On January 16, dailies put the emphasis on Secretary Rice's 
allegedly "not having a plan" with regard to her trip to the Middle 
East.  "She has repeated that she supports the creation of a 
Palestinian state and that the Road Map needs to be re-launched... 
But this trip has once again clearly shown that the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not a real priority for Washington 
which is much more preoccupied with the war in Iraq and the Iranian 
nuclear issue... as well as the tensions between Lebanon and Syria" 
(right-of-center Le Figaro). 
 
------------------------------ 
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SARKOZY 
------------------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU) On January 15, the day following the UMP convention at 
which Nicolas Sarkozy was chosen as the party's presidential 
candidate, headlines and commentaries analyzing Sarkozy's 
performance abounded.  Laurent Joffrin in left-wing Liberation 
warned that "this man is dangerous:  especially for the Left...  He 
has triumphed through his energy, talent and organization.  He knows 
what he is doing and that is what has his adversaries worried..." 
For Catholic La Croix's Francois Ernewein, "the Left is still 
swimming in its contradictions, while Nicolas Sarkozy is pushing 
ahead with a detailed plan for the future.  A plan that leaves no 
one, or almost no one, behind... and that serves to underscore the 
vagueness of the Left's candidate Segolene Royal..." 
 
¶11. (SBU) Headlines on January 16 focused on Nicolas Sarkozy's 
acceptance speech following the UMP's 98 percent vote to designate 
him as their candidate for the upcoming presidential election.  For 
left-of-center Le Monde, Sarkozy is seeking to "unite his Party" and 
right-of-center Le Figaro leads with the claim that "the Right gets 
a new boost and the Left is at a loss."  The unsigned editorial in 
left-of-center Le Monde, "A New Sarkozy?" notes that "Sarkozy has 
donned the double appearance of a man who can unite and who 'has 
changed...'  He no longer speaks of a 'quiet rift' but instead 
highlights his admiration for Jacques Chirac, he also makes amends 
for the war in Iraq acknowledging that the French president "was a 
credit to France" by opposing it...  Sarkozy is defying the Left on 
its own turf." 
STAPLETON