VZCZCXRO0144
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #0294/01 0171323
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171323Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6746
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0041
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000294 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
AID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KLUU, GGOTTLIEB, AFERRARA, ACONVERY, 
CGOTTSCHALK, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR WHAMMINK, JDWORKEN 
AFR/AFR/EA FOR JBORNS 
STATE FOR AF/E AND PRM 
STATE/AF/E FOR NGARY 
STATE/PRM FOR AWENDT, MMCKELVEY 
NSC FOR TSHORTLEY 
USUN FOR TMALY 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
USMISSION UN ROME FODAG FOR RNEWBERG 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PREF PHUM PREL EAGR SO
 
SUBJECT:  SOMALIA DART SITUATION REPORT 4 ? FOOD AID 
UPDATE 
 
NAIROBI 00000294  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1.  The 2007 UN Consolidated Appeals Process (CAP) for 
Somalia estimates that 1.4 million people are food 
insecure.  In response, the UN World Food Program (WFP) 
plans to deliver 114,000 metric tons (MT) to more than 
1 million people, and CARE plans to distribute food to 
approximately 400,000 others.  Distribution of food aid 
has been complicated by flooding, conflict, insecurity, 
closure of the Kenya-Somalia border, and other 
operational constraints.  Despite these challenges, 
distributions continue and food stocks available for 
Somalia are currently sufficient to meet the estimated 
caseload through May 2007.  As of January 16, the 
humanitarian community does not expect a significant 
increase in the current food caseload, unless the 
conflict in southern Somalia is prolonged or another 
climatic shock occurs.  End Summary. 
 
BACKGROUND 
 
¶2.  USAID?s major food distribution partners in Somalia 
are WFP and the non-governmental organization (NGO) 
CARE.  Both organizations transport food by air, road, 
and water to reach beneficiaries.  WFP operates in all 
regions of Somalia, and CARE operates in Gedo, Hiraan, 
and Middle Shabelle regions.  In 2006, through WFP and 
CARE, USAID provided 121,000 MT of food aid valued at 
$81 million to Somalia. 
 
¶3.  Large parts of southern Somalia received below- 
average rains in 2005 and 2006, resulting in failed 
harvests and stressed grazing areas.  Relentless rains 
at the end of 2006, although good for pasture and water 
replenishment, have only increased vulnerability by 
disrupting agricultural activities and destroying 
household assets. 
 
¶4.  Persistent insecurity and renewed civil strife in 
southern Somalia, including the recent intervention by 
Ethiopian forces, have further depressed the coping 
mechanisms of the population and exacerbated acute food 
shortages and hunger affecting an estimated 1.4 million 
people.  In December, the UN Food and Agriculture 
Organization?s (FAO) Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) 
reported a 17 percent global acute malnutrition rate 
and a 3.2 percent severe acute malnutrition rate in El 
Barde, Bakool Region.  Although malnutrition rates are 
not this high throughout Somalia, there are pockets of 
malnutrition caused by food insecurity nationwide. 
 
FOOD DELIVERY HAMPERED BY FLOODS AND CONFLICT 
 
¶5.  In November and December, heavy rains hampered the 
overland movement of hundreds of trucks delivering WFP 
relief food.  While trying to reach flooded villages, 
food convoys were unable to traverse inundated roads. 
In November, a special air operation was activated to 
transport critical food and relief commodities to 
inaccessible areas in southern Somalia.  WFP chartered 
two helicopters to ferry food to Lower and Middle Juba 
regions, the most severely flood-affected areas, basing 
them in Kismayo.  Additionally, WFP used nine 
riverboats, each with a two MT capacity, based in 
Buaale, Middle Shabelle Region, to deliver relief food 
to communities cut off by flooding along the Juba 
River. 
 
 
NAIROBI 00000294  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶6.  In recent weeks, the flood waters have receded and 
roads have begun drying out, allowing transport of 
commodities overland to resume on a limited basis. 
Road access is expected to return to previous levels if 
weather patterns continue to be favorable and the 
security situation stabilizes.  Overland transport is 
becoming increasingly important to WFP as flights out 
of Kismayo Airport have halted following the takeover 
of the airfield by Ethiopian forces the week of January 
¶1.  The last airdrops occurred December 25 and 26 in 
Afmadow District. 
 
¶7.  WFP predicts that in the near future humanitarian 
flights will not be able to use the Kismayo airfield. 
As a result, WFP may cancel the helicopter contract and 
redirect the remaining $3 million (from the UN Central 
Emergency Response Fund) to the movement of food and 
non-food commodities using Nairobi-based fixed-wing 
aircraft.  WFP has leased a Buffalo aircraft with an 
eight MT capacity and an Antonov-12 with a 12 to 15 MT 
capacity in Nairobi.  WFP expects to finalize these 
plans in the coming days. 
 
EXAMPLES OF OPERATIONAL CONSTRAINTS 
 
¶8.  Of the 1,000 drums of jet 1-A fuel WFP had in 
Kismayo for airdrops, WFP used 250 drums before 
insecurity grounded flights.  Ethiopian forces took the 
remaining 750 drums without reimbursing WFP, which had 
not yet paid the fuel supplier.  However, after high- 
level negotiation in Nairobi and Addis Ababa the week 
of January 8, Ethiopian forces finally made payment to 
WFP and the issue was resolved. 
 
¶9.  Additionally, an $80,000 Somali Transitional 
Federal Government (TFG)-levied tax on WFP for a 
recently off-loaded ship in Mogadishu Port has been 
rescinded after WFP refused to pay the tax.  The WFP 
chartered ship off-loaded 4,500 MT over three days at 
the end of December, during which control of Mogadishu 
Port changed hands three times. 
 
DISTRIBUTIONS 
 
¶10.  In 2007, WFP plans to deliver 114,000 MT to more 
than 1 million people in Somalia.  WFP?s projections 
are based on a contingency stock for internally 
displaced persons (IDPs) in the event of future 
displacement; relief and recovery assistance through 
March for flood victims; food assistance needs from 
April to July depending on the success of off-season 
crops; recessional flood harvests; and the August 
harvest following the long rains.  These projections 
may change after FSAU?s post-harvest assessment, which 
is due to be released January 31. 
 
¶11.  During the last two weeks of December, WFP 
distributed 2,000 MT of relief food to 93,000 flood- 
affected people in Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and 
Lower Juba regions.  Food distributions are ongoing in 
and around Afmadow District using relief supplies 
carried by a 54-truck convoy that was stuck in the mud 
for the last seven weeks.  Food distributions are also 
ongoing in Bay and Bakool regions.  More than 2,000 MT 
of food are currently being distributed in the Bardera 
and Garbahare districts of Gedo Region.  These 
commodities target 115,000 flood and drought-affected 
people. 
 
NAIROBI 00000294  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶12.  To assist people in and around Dobley town, across 
the closed Somalia-Kenya border from the Liboi border 
post, WFP will conduct a one?off distribution of 356 MT 
for 6,000 IDPs and 12,000 host community members.  WFP 
has acknowledged the potential for creating a draw to 
this area, but is confident this one-off distribution 
can be done successfully. 
 
¶13.  In December, CARE distributed two-month food 
rations in Gedo and Hiraan regions.  In Hiraan Region, 
the distribution targeted more than 23,000 flood- 
affected households.  The final stages of the 
distribution in Hiraan Region were underway as 
Ethiopian forces entered the area, prompting the 
distribution team to pull back to Mogadishu.  As a 
result, parts of Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions 
have not yet received food distributions. 
 
SOMALIA FOOD STOCKS 
 
¶14.  Currently, WFP has 33,400 MT on the ground in 
Somalia and Kenya, not counting the recent USG 
contribution of 17,920 MT valued at $11.5 million.  At 
an approximate burn rate of 12,000 MT per month, WFP?s 
pipeline is strong through April for the current 
caseload.  Including the recent USG contribution, a 
62,691 MT shortfall remains for planned WFP 
interventions through December 2007. 
 
¶15.  In Somalia, CARE currently has 12,633 MT located 
almost entirely in Mogadishu and a small amount in 
Merka.  In Kenya, CARE has 12,426 MT located primarily 
in Mombasa, with a few stocks in Mandera and El Wak. 
 
IMPACT OF INSECURITY AND BORDER CLOSURE ON FOOD AID 
 
¶16.  The results of recent military interventions 
inside Somalia and the subsequent closure of the 
Somalia-Kenya border have disrupted the movement of 
food aid commodities into and around Somalia.  Despite 
this disruption, WFP continues to transport food aid to 
vulnerable communities and conduct distributions. 
 WFP?s Somali staff members have weathered similar 
situations and are expert at maneuvering across clan, 
religious, and political lines. 
 
¶17.  The precarious security situation in Kismayo and 
Mogadishu has driven WFP to begin moving food stocks 
out of warehouses there, to sites in Bay, Bakool, and 
Middle Shabelle regions.  Clan fighting over the 
Kismayo Port has prompted WFP to move 2,000 MT (out of 
the 4,000 MT in the warehouse) to Buaale and Sakow.  In 
Mogadishu, WFP plans to move 3,500 MT (of the 6,000 MT) 
to Bay Region and Wajid town in Bakool Region. 
 
¶18.  CARE reports that its staff members are still able 
to access Gedo Region, but the closure of the Somalia- 
Kenya border prevents Somali staff from entering Kenya, 
or international staff from going into Somalia. 
Insecurity, reported harassment of humanitarian staff, 
and lawlessness are preventing staff movement in south 
and central Somalia.  As a result, CARE reports that 
food distributions are currently not possible in south 
and central Somalia. 
 
¶19.  CARE plans to distribute food in Gedo Region in 
February, but will not be able to unless the Somalia- 
 
NAIROBI 00000294  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
Kenya border re-opens.  In late January, CARE plans to 
distribute food in Hiraan and central regions if the 
security situation improves sufficiently. 
 
¶20.  Since mid-December, insecurity and limited road 
access prevented a WFP convoy carrying approximately 
1,000 MT of food from leaving for Afmadow District.  As 
of January 16, the convoy remains split between Dobley, 
Somalia, and Liboi, Kenya. 
 
CONCLUSIONS 
 
¶21.  Despite recent disruptions due to insecurity and 
conflict, the Somalia USG Disaster Assistance Response 
Team is confident that USAID?s partners will be able to 
continue activities at sufficient levels to meet 
Somalia?s humanitarian needs as soon as the border re- 
opens and security improves.  WFP and CARE both have a 
long history of working in Somalia and strong 
relationships with local partners that have enabled the 
agencies to maneuver among the myriad of clan, 
religious, and political actors. 
 
¶22.  Food stocks either on the ground in Somalia or in 
the region are sufficient to meet food requirements 
through May 2007. 
 
¶23.  The humanitarian community currently does not 
expect a significant increase in the number of food 
insecure Somalis in 2007.  However, if conflict and 
insecurity are sustained in south and central Somalia, 
and/or another climatic shock occurs, food aid needs 
will increase. 
 
RANNEBERGER