VZCZCXRO5545
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #0261/01 0231120
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231120Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6694
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 3694
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 1859
RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 2114

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000261 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS PREVIEW: STAVROPOL KRAY 
 
MOSCOW 00000261  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Regional duma elections in Stavropol Kray 
on March 11 will likely be dominated by the United Russia 
party, with the Communists and the second Kremlin party "A 
Just Russia" fighting for second place.  The Liberal 
Democratic party and the Union of Right Forces will struggle 
to pass the seven percent threshold.  United Russia's 
superior organization and regional control are expected to be 
too much for the fractured Just Russia party and its 
unpopular leader.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Stavropol Kray's Electoral System 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) According to Kray Election Commission chief Viktor 
Limanov, there are 20 registered political parties in the 
Kray, but only seven of them (United Russia (YR), A Just 
Russia (SR), the Communists (KPRF), the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDPR), Union of Right Forces (SPS), Agrarian Party, 
and Patriots of Russia) are fielding candidates in the 
regional Duma elections.  The number of seats in the Kray 
Duma has been doubled to 50, 25 of which will continue to be 
single-mandate seats, and the other 25 will be selected from 
party lists.  In order to win party list seats, a party must 
receive at least seven percent of the vote.  Parties 
currently holding seats in the Duma are automatically 
registered, while other parties must either collect 10,000 
signatures or pay a bond of 5% of the campaign spending limit 
(the limit for a party list campaign is 60 million rubles; 
for a single-mandate seat the limit is five million rubles). 
The bond is forfeited if the party or candidate does not 
receive at least seven percent of the vote.  According to 
Limanov and NGO leaders, corruption is limited to illegal use 
of administrative resources and minor abuses of campaign 
laws, but does not extend to electoral fraud. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
The Parties: United Russia vs. Everybody Else 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) United Russia organization: YR has a firm hold on 
the Kray government and will likely increase its share in the 
Duma on March 11.  According to Federal Duma Deputy Anatoly 
Semenchenko (a YR member from Stavropol), the party's goal is 
to gain more than 40% of the vote and to secure a majority of 
both the single mandate and party list seats. The YR 
campaign, based in an old fortress with a commanding view of 
the Stavropol plain, is being run by Sergey Ryanzantsev, a 
former colonel and current candidate.  "We are active in 
every electoral district and have candidates running for each 
single-mandate seat.  Our campaign materials, which were just 
approved by United Russia headquarters in Moscow, will 
feature (Duma Speaker Boris) Gryzlov's portrait and the 
portrait of the Governor."  Ryanzantsev said that his local 
party organization followed the administrative district 
structure, not the electoral district structure, because this 
was "more useful."  According to members of voter-rights NGOs 
and opposing parties, this is because YR relies upon 
administrative resources for campaigning. YR's primary 
campaign issues will be increasing living standards and 
economic development, especially in the rural areas. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Just Russia disorganization: In contrast to YR's 
stiff model of bureaucratic efficiency, SR is still 
solidifying the merger of its constituents, the Party of 
Life, Rodina, and Pensioners party. The Stavropol branch of 
SR was formed around the Party of Life structure. Sergey 
Shak, the head of the local SR branch told us, "It was not an 
easy process, but it's done now.  We have agreed to put aside 
our personal differences and ambitions for the good of our 
party."  Shak, in a meeting joined by the mayor, told us that 
the main campaign theme would be "spravedlivnost" ("social 
justice"), but he offered no specifics.  Similarly, SR 
leaders offered little in the way of concrete plans for their 
campaign, saying that they were waiting for the results of 
the SR national congress to be held in February.  Mayor 
Kuzmin noted that SR was stronger in the urban areas, and 
that the main concern was migration from the countryside 
straining municipal services and driving up the cost of 
living.  He offered no remedies for this issue other than 
plans to request more assistance from the regional and 
federal governments. Shak said that SR was going to register 
for the elections by paying the bond rather than spend time 
collecting signatures. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Other parties: The KPRF is probably the second 
strongest party in the Kray, but its support is shrinking as 
its elderly supporters die off and others move to YR and SR. 
 
MOSCOW 00000261  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
The solid core that remains will likely fetch 10-15 percent 
of the vote.  SPS local leader Boris Obolonets told us that 
he was doubtful that his party would exceed the seven percent 
threshold. "We thought the situation was hopeless until we 
saw what happened in Perm, so now we are a little bit 
optimistic." (Note: On December 3, SPS had a surprisingly 
strong showing in the Perm Duma elections, winning 16 percent 
of the vote. End note.) He said that SPS support was strong 
among businessmen, who privately backed SPS while publicly 
supporting YR. Obolonets said that SPS faced opponents using 
administrative resources in the cities (by SR) and 
countryside (by YR), but that they would campaign honestly 
and door-to-door.  The Agrarian party, which had been very 
strong in the Kray and currently holds 11 seats in the 
regional Duma, has practically disappeared.  United Russia 
claims that most of Agrarian supporters now support United 
Russia, and most of the prominent Agrarian politicians are 
now running under the United Russia banner.  The remaining 
candidates and their supporters have mostly been divided 
between the KPRF and SR. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Personal politics: The governor, Alexander 
Chernogorov, is a member of United Russia and is very popular 
in the region.  His main rival is Stavropol city mayor 
Dmitriy Kuzmin, a member of A Just Russia, whose popularity 
is low and decreasing.  According to members of the 
Governor's office, Mayor Kuzmin had attempted to join YR last 
year, but was refused because of his high negative rating. 
Kuzmin has a reputation as a heavy drinker, and his personal 
involvement in helping the mayor of Pyatigorsk flee the scene 
of an accident which killed five people last August has 
depressed his ratings in the countryside.  While the governor 
is not free of scandal -- his wife published an open letter 
in the local press on January 19, calling him a cheapskate 
who played billiards all day and who refused to grant her a 
divorce -- his personal ratings are very high, especially in 
rural areas. 
 
---------------------------- 
NGOs and other organizations 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Vasiliy Krasulya, the head of the local GOLOS 
voter-rights organization, offered a glum assessment of the 
electoral landscape in Stavropol Kray.  He said that the 
federal and regional government continued to stifle electoral 
competition through legislation and abuse of office.  The 
seven percent threshold makes it nearly impossible for 
smaller parties enter the Duma, and the government, 
especially the YR-dominated Kray government, uses its 
influence and administrative resources to reinforce its 
position in power.  Independent journalist Igor Voronin, who 
runs his own radio station and political talk show, was less 
concerned about fraud, and told us, "Sure, there is some 
rule-breaking and abuse of office, but the truth is that the 
majority of the people here support United Russia because 
they support Putin and because they know what to expect from 
them: Stability."  He said that the local SR organization was 
"half criminal" and they were much more dangerous.  "A Just 
Russia was created to keep United Russia from getting too 
fat, but they are not and cannot be a governing party."  The 
Bishop of Stavropol and Vladikavkaz, Theophan, noted that the 
Orthodox Church had a good working relationship with the 
government (although he thought that the government should 
give the church more resources), and that the church was 
impartial.  "We will work with the officials elected by the 
people.  Our priests are not allowed to participate in any 
electoral activities or to campaign from the pulpit." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The elections in Stavropol Kray are expected to show 
strong support for United Russia and for centrist policies. 
Support for other parties will reflect other currents in the 
region (such as the KPRF's support among nostalgic "old 
believers") or in the case of SR, general dissatisfaction 
with the government.  United Russia clearly has a huge head 
start in terms of organization, support, policies, and 
administrative resources that should result in a solid 
majority in the new Duma. 
BURNS