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RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0008/01 0050738
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 050738Z JAN 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5492
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1389
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000008 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PHUM BO
SUBJECT: A STIFF LUKASHENKO SENDS A MELANCHOLIC NEW YEAR'S MESSAGE 
 
REF: MINSK 003 
 
MINSK 00000008  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) An exhausted-looking Lukashenko on December 31 delivered 
his yearly New Year's address to Belarusians before the stroke of 
midnight.  Standing stiffly next to a fireplace mantle and eyes 
noticeably shifting to the teleprompter behind the camera, 
Lukashenko slowly, without his infamous "charisma" or emotional 
outbursts, gave a politically charged New Year's greetings.  The 
president lamented the pressures Belarus faces from the West and 
countries that were supposed to be friends [i.e., Russia].  He 
warned listeners that the road to prosperity would be rough, but 
lauded Belarus' 2006 economic accomplishments and predicted that 
the country would accomplish more in 2007.  End summary. 
 
Bread Does Not Come Easy 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Lukashenko said that the New Year brought sadness and 
happiness.  Sadness because precious days of our lives are behind 
us, and happiness because the future holds new hope and 
expectations.  However, "bread did not come easy" for Belarusians 
in 2006 and the same could be expected for 2007.  According to 
Lukashenko, 2006 was a "tense" and "complicated" year for Belarus. 
Although Belarus wanted to focus on the economy and social welfare, 
outside and inside forces exerted massive internal and external 
pressure during the presidential elections.  However, efforts to 
"rock" the country failed, because the "wise" Belarusian people 
voiced their choice clearly and with resolve. 
 
How Could Our Friends [Russia] Do This! 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The president noted that "once again" Belarus was threatened 
with economic sanctions and isolation, because other countries did 
not want Belarus to become fully independent and self-sufficient. 
Pressure from Western countries was no surprise, but anti- 
Belarusian attitudes among friends of Belarus [i.e., Russia] raised 
concern.  Belarus' "friends" violated earlier agreements made with 
Belarus, striking a serious blow to their "age-old" friendship with 
Belarus.  Lukashenko warned that Belarus' policies of a peaceful 
world outlook, sovereignty, and social welfare would not be 
sacrificed in the face of threats and pressure.  According to the 
president, it was obvious that "friendly" neighbors had forgotten 
the old Russian saying "God is not in power, but in the truth." 
 
New Years a Good Time To Discuss Five-Year Plans and GDP 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶4. (U) Lukashenko reassured his listeners that 2006 was a 
successful year, because Belarus met its economic, social, and 
cultural goals, fulfilled the "intensive" missions of the first 
year of the new five-year plan, and increased reserves for the 
future.  Gross domestic product growth dubled that of the world 
average and Belarus expaded its geopolitical ties in all 
continents, becoing a vanguard in the international wars on 
trafficking in persons and drugs, and other crimes. 
 
No One Can Protect Us But Ourselves 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Lukashenko noted the lessons learned in 2006, primarily that 
no one but Belarusians cares for the welfare of the Belarusian 
government and people.  The country's welfare depends on 
Belarusian's hard work, cultural activeness, unity, and willingness 
to love and protect the Fatherland.  Belarusians must value peace 
and stability and have faith in the future; things other 
governments can only dream about.  Bearusians must stand up for 
the nation's interest just as their ancestors did during tough 
times n history. 
 
No Roses On Belarus' Path 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) The president admitted tat his speech may not be in the 
holiday spirit, ut he was "used" to speaking "openly" and 
"honestly" to the people.  He warned that a thorny and complex 
path, not one "draped in roses" lay ahead of Belarus.  Belarusians 
must be prepared to make extraordinary and complicated decisions in 
order to stave off those who wish to receive "tasty morsels" of 
Belarusian property for free using economic and political tools. 
In order to make Belarus a strong and flourishing nation, citizens 
must rely only on themselves, their hands, intelligence, and 
persistence.  "Wealth does not fall from the Heavens." 
 
¶7. (U) Lukashenko explained that economic conditions must correlate 
 
MINSK 00000008  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
with reality.  Belarusians have to live and work with zeal and 
caution and develop the new "economic knowledge" that includes 
modern technology and large efficient production.  New economic 
conditions would strengthen Belarus' sovereignty and preserve 
Belarusians' comfortable, clean and beautiful country for the 
future generations. 
 
Do Not Buck the System 
---------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Lukashenko warned Belarusians not to allow dissent, 
disorder, and confusion to flourish in the country.  "Destroyed is 
that home and killed is that government which is splintered from 
the inside."  According to the president, Belarus' strength comes 
from unity, agreement, and each citizen's desire to aid in the 
country's development.  Belarusians can be sure that their 
government will do everything to provide them a suitable life. 
 
Birth Rates A Sign 
------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) Lukashenko predicted that 2007 would be a good year because 
2006 witnessed an increase in birth rates, the first such increase 
in a decade.  This indicated that Belarusian women were confident 
in Belarus' future. 
 
Finally, New Year's Wishes 
-------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) Finally, Lukashenko wished Belarusians all the happiness, 
good health, energy and success that life can offer.  He wished for 
the New Year to fill each house with children's laughter and wealth 
and asked Belarusians to take care of their family and friends and 
show each other happiness, kindness, and love. 
 
Past Happy New Year's Addresses Not So Happy 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Lukashenko's past New Year's addresses have always been 
filled with strong political statements and quirky phrases.  Below 
are examples: 
 
1996: "We will create a democratic, social oriented government, 
perfect the economy and spiritual sphere in order to satisfy the 
material and cultural needs of the citizen." 
 
1997: "Belarusian territory did not turn into an arena of conflict 
and fights.  A decisive step was taken towards stability, 
tranquility, and continuing democracy and away from anarchy and 
chaos." 
 
1999: ". a year of strengthening and developing the integration 
processes.[and] coming together of two brotherly peoples 
[Belarusians and Russians]." 
 
2000: "This year was a difficult one for our country, especially 
for agriculture.  But the peasants stood their ground!  We bow to 
you for saving the harvest." 
 
2001: ". social-economic stability in society is considered by our 
foreign partners as a great accomplishment." 
 
2002: "This year we built new metro stations, modernized the 
Berezovskiy hydroelectric station, extended gas lines to Polyessa, 
Minshin, and homes of Chernobyl victims." 
 
2004: "We completed gas lines to Polyessa.  In a few years we 
fulfilled promises that the Soviet Union made 30 years ago." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Lukashenko's tired appearance is probably attributed to 
the then-ongoing gas negotiations with Russia that ended two 
minutes before the New Year (reftel).  His indirect references to 
Russia highlighted his anger and signaled what has recently been an 
obvious change in GOB relations with the "brotherly" nation. 
Although melancholic compared to the holiday greetings from Russian 
President Putin an hour before, the content of Lukashenko's address 
surprised few of his listeners. 
 
MOORE