VZCZCXRO9873
RR RUEHAST RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0065/01 0261335
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261335Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5552
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000065 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - JANUARY 2617, 
2007 
 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
------------- 
 
- Gomel Opposition Files Suit against Election (para. 2) 
- GOB Detains and Drafts Youth Activists (para. 3) 
 
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
---------------------------------- 
 
- Deputy FM Calls Vietnam a Strategic Partner (para. 4) 
- Belarus to Sign Cooperation Agreement with Chechnya (para. 5) 
 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
- Ministers Approve Export Development Plan (para. 6) 
- MAZ Seeks Increased Auto Sales to Kazakhstan (para. 7) 
 
DOMESTIC ECONOMY 
---------------- 
 
- No Rise in GSM Velcom Rates Despite Tax Hike (para. 8) 
- Minsk Court Starts IECB-Bank Bankruptcy Hearing (para. 9) 
------- 
SOCIETY 
------- 
 
- Thirteen Executives on Trial for Human Trafficking (para. 10) 
- Belarus' Population Shrinks Annually by 50,000 (para. 11) 
- Belarus to Maintain Only One Juvenile Prison (para. 12) 
 
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 13) 
 
------------- 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Gomel Opposition Files Suit against Election Results 
 
On January 25, former opposition United Civil Party regional 
council candidate Leonid Sudalenko appealed to the Gomel Regional 
Court to invalidate the official election results in his 
district.  According to independent election observers, 
approximately 2,500 voters fewer turned out in five precincts of 
the district than were reported by the district election 
commission.  The district election commission head reportedly 
refused a recount on the grounds that observers from the pro-GOB 
Belarusian Republican Youth Union had not recorded any violations 
of electoral regulations. 
 
¶3.  GOB Detains and Drafts Youth Activists 
 
On January 24, independent media published several complaints of 
repression against the opposition youth organization Malady 
Front.  Youth activist Anna Chepeleva reported that authorities 
in the northern city of Vitebsk had detained several activists on 
the day of the municipal elections and threatened to take away a 
five-year-old child adopted by a local couple if their older 
daughter continues her political activism.  According to Malady 
Front member Dmitriy Fedoruk, 20 former students who were 
expelled from universities for political reasons were drafted 
into the army. 
 
----------------------- 
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
¶4. Deputy FM Calls Vietnam a Strategic Partner 
 
On January 25, the 15th anniversary of the establishment of 
Belarusian-Vietnamese diplomatic relations, Belarus' Deputy 
Foreign Minister Viktor Gaysenok described Vietnam as Belarus' 
strategic partner and expressed strong interest in further 
developing humanitarian, economic and military-technical 
relations.  Vietnamese Ambassador to Belarus Vu Xuan Ninh noted 
that President Lukashenko's upcoming visit to Vietnam would be a 
powerful impetus to the development of the bilateral 
relationship.  That same day, Belarus' Interior Minister Vladimir 
Naumov arrived in Hanoi to hold talks with top Vietnamese law 
enforcement officials and sign a 2007-2008 cooperation protocol. 
 
¶5.  Belarus to Sign Cooperation Agreement with Chechnya 
 
On January 25, a source in Belarus' Foreign Ministry confirmed to 
independent media that Belarus Prime Minister Sergey Sidorskiy is 
 
MINSK 00000065  002 OF 003 
 
 
expected to sign an agreement on social, economic, scientific, 
technical and cultural cooperation with the Chechen Republic of 
the Russian Federation.  According to the source, the parties 
continue to discuss certain provisions of the draft and therefore 
it remains unclear when the agreement will be signed. 
 
---------------------------------- 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  Ministers Approve Export Development Plan 
 
On January 22, Belarus' Council of Ministers authorized the GOB's 
2007 action plan for the 2006-2010 national export development 
program, which includes 172 measures aimed at boosting exports of 
goods and services.   The plan also calls for the creation of 
export crediting and insurance systems, including the 
reorganization of Belpromstroybank into an export-import bank. 
The 2006-2010 national export development program envisages two 
scenarios, one "basic" and the other "optimistic," with the 
latter being for a favorable situation in foreign markets. 
Export of services in 2010 would total USD 3.5 billion in 2010 
under the basic scenario and USD 4 billion under the optimistic 
one.  The export of goods would amount to USD 25.2 billion and 
USD 29.1 billion, respectively.  Both scenarios project a steady 
export surplus. 
 
¶7.  MAZ Seeks Increased Auto Sales to Kazakhstan 
 
On January 24, the Minsk Automobile Factory (MAZ) reported plans 
to export some 1,700 vehicles, including up to 1,200 trucks, to 
Kazakhstan in 2007.  MAZ began exporting its automotive equipment 
to Kazakhstan in 2002 and sold 939 and 1,408 vehicles there in 
2005 and 2006, respectively.  From January 16 to 19, MAZ 
management and eight Kazakh dealership heads discussed increasing 
sales in Kazakhstan. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  No Rise in GSM Velcom Rates Despite Tax Hike 
 
On January 23, Belarus' GSM operator Velcom announced that its 
rates will not rise despite recent tax increases.  The Minsk City 
Council has recently approved a measure raising the rate of the 
communication services tax from five to 10 percent, effective 
February 1, 2007. The tax rate also increased from seven to 10 
percent in the southeastern Gomel region and from five to 10 
percent in the eastern Mogilev region. 
 
¶9.  Minsk Court Starts IECB-Bank Bankruptcy Hearing 
 
On January 23, the Minsk Economic Court started bankruptcy and 
foreclosure proceedings for the open joint-stock company 
International Economic Cooperation Bank (IECB-Bank).  On July 19, 
the National Bank of Belarus (NBB) revoked in September 2006 the 
general and blanket licenses for banking operations in Belarusian 
rubles and foreign currency of IECB-Bank after the tax inspectors 
found that the bank did not possess enough property to meet 
claims.  The bank retained the right to keep corporate accounts 
and provide settlement services to individuals (except taking 
deposits) and corporate clients, including correspondent banks. 
International Economic Cooperation Bank was registered on March 
10, 2003 as a resident of the free economic zone in Minsk. 
Investors from Montenegro and the UK formed the authorized fund. 
 
------- 
SOCIETY 
------- 
 
¶10.  Thirteen Executives on Trial for Human Trafficking 
 
On January 23, Deputy Chief of Belarusian Interior Ministry's 
Trafficking Prevention Department Sergey Koltun reported that 13 
executives of Belarusian modeling agencies are standing trial on 
a charge of trafficking Belarusian women for sexual exploitation. 
The executives were part of an international human trafficking 
ring that had lured more than 600 Belarusian women into 
prostitution in France, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates 
between 2002 and 2005.  According to Koltun, during 2006 
Belarusian police broke up 111 trafficking rings, which smuggled 
Belarusian women into 17 countries, including Austria, Germany, 
Greece, Lebanon, Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Turkey. 
Belarusian authorities recorded 567 trafficking crimes. 
 
¶11.  Belarus' Population Shrinks Annually by 50,000 
 
On January 25, Belarus' Deputy Health Minister Robert Chasnoit 
announced that Belarus' population shrinks each year by 
 
MINSK 00000065  003 OF 003 
 
 
approximately 50,000 people because Belarus' death rate still 
exceeds the birth rate.  Chasnoit characterized these figures as 
"large losses" and called upon Belarusians "to take joint 
measures to preserve the population of the nation and strengthen 
the health of those who are born now."  The 1999 general census 
indicated that 10,045,200 people lived in Belarus.  In late 2006, 
the Statistics Ministry estimated the country's population at 
9,720,000. 
 
¶12.  Belarus to Maintain Only One Juvenile Prison 
 
On January 24, Belarusian Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir 
Naumov announced plans to maintain only one juvenile correctional 
facility in Belarus because juvenile crime appears to be 
declining.  Currently under construction, the facility will 
replace a juvenile prison closed in 2005 and house between 500 to 
700 inmates.   Authorities plan to close Belarus' other only 
facility at a date to be determined later. 
 
----------------- 
QUOTE OF THE WEEK 
----------------- 
 
¶13.  Upon the Belarusian upper parliamentary chamber's unanimous 
decision to reappoint her as Belarus' Central Election Commission 
Chair, Lidiya Yermoshina heralded the openness of the Belarusian 
election system and offered the following pledge: 
 
"I cannot say that I would perform better because this would be 
an indirect admission that I did not perform very well before.  I 
can only promise that I and other members of the Central Election 
Commission will honestly try to perform our functions for 
securing the electoral rights of citizens." 
 
Stewart