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PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #0269/01 0301819
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 301819Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8884
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0932
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000269 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU PREL
SUBJECT: RIZO: PLC AND ALN UNDERESTIMATED ONE ANOTHER TO 
THE BENEFIT OF ORTEGA 
 
REF: 2005 MANAGUA 2864 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) Jose Rizo, the Liberal Constitutional Party's (PLC) 
presidential candidate in the November 2006 race, 
acknowledged to PolCouns on January 23 that he had 
miscalculated the strength of rival Nicaraguan Liberal 
Alliance (ALN) candidate Eduardo Montealegre, while 
Montealegre had also underestimated the PLC's political 
machinery, name recognition, and popular "staying power' in 
Nicaragua's deep-rural northern areas.  He lamented his 
"failure to convince" U.S. officials before the election that 
he could have reformed his party and sidelined PLC caudillo 
Arnoldo Aleman, but also conceded that Aleman's power sharing 
pact with Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) leader 
Daniel Ortega would probably have precluded a Rizo victory in 
the November 2006 election. 
 
¶2.  (C) Visibly sobered by Ortega's victory, Rizo warned that 
the new president's efforts to consolidate power auger poorly 
for Nicaragua.  He remarked that the two estranged Liberal 
parties must set aside their differences for the common good. 
 However, he acknowledged that Ortega and Aleman will do 
their utmost to prevent Liberal unity. 
 
¶3.  (C) Rizo, who is determined to continue his appeal before 
the Supreme Court regarding his entitlement to an alternate 
(suplente) seat in the National Assembly, recounted how 
Supreme Court Justice Martinez had recently told him that his 
claim is valid, but political interests stand in the way. 
According to Rizo, PLC caudillo Arnoldo Aleman is the 
political force behind the Supreme Electoral Council's (CSE) 
decision to disallow Rizo's right.  Rizo explained that if he 
fails to win his seat after exhausting all legal avenues, he 
intends to file a complaint before the Inter-American Human 
Rights Commission.  (Note: According to Article 133 of the 
Constitution, the elected incumbent president and vice 
president are accorded principle and alternate seats, 
respectively, in the legislature.  The Constitution makes no 
mention that the resignation of the elected vice president is 
grounds for disqualification.) 
 
¶4.  (C) While conceding that Aleman continues to hold the 
reins of the party, Rizo asserted that discontent among the 
PLC's rank and file, and even among the party's traditionally 
obedient Assembly lawmakers, is growing.  He attributed their 
disaffection to the party's abysmal electoral loss (in the 
presidential race, the PLC placed third) and the realization 
that Liberal disunity and the longstanding pact between 
Ortega and Aleman had allowed Ortega to win the election. 
According to Rizo, in his numerous consultations with PLC 
followers since the electoral loss, they consistently call 
for Liberal reunification and party reform -- including 
ending Aleman's destructive hold over the party. 
¶5.  (C) Rizo agreed that the PLC and ALN should refrain from 
public attacks and efforts to "steal" one others' followers - 
actions that serve only to advantage Ortega further divide 
the opposition.  By crafting a common legislative agenda and 
strategy, the two estranged parties could gradually build the 
confidence to form a broader political alliance, suggested 
PolCouns. 
 
¶6.  (C) Comment: Rizo's remorse and determination may be 
theoretically encouraging, but he has lost the modest 
political clout he once enjoyed.  Nonetheless, some Assembly 
lawmakers owe their candidacies to Rizo and he may still 
exercise some influence over them.  Rizo's comments also 
track with those of his erstwhile running mate, Jose Antonio 
Alvarado, who recently told DCM that he and Rizo had been 
"duped" ("embarcado") by Aleman and that he was now fully 
convinced that Aleman had deliberately worked against them to 
deliver the presidency to Ortega.  While trying to minimize 
his own substantial role in the campaign attacks and 
fabrications against ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre, 
Alvarado also insisted that it was time for the two Liberal 
parties to bury the hatchet and work together.  He indicated 
there was significant disenchantment among the PLC faithful 
and professed his commitment to continue loosening Aleman's 
stranglehold on the party.  Alvarado's political capital has 
fallen even further than Rizo's, however, and it is unlikely 
he will have much influence in either PLC or ALN circles in 
the political serpent-dance ahead. 
 
MANAGUA 00000269  002 OF 002 
 
 
TRIVELLI