VZCZCXRO8944
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0068/01 0161642
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161642Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5804
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS AND AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU SU UN EUN
SUBJECT: DARFUR: MOMENTUM ON COMMANDERS CONFERENCE 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 44 
     ¶B. KHARTOUM 54 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary and comment: The long-proposed conference of 
Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) non-signatory commanders is 
moving forward.  Following a January 15 Sudanese government 
guarantee of security assurances, the AU may begin to 
transport rebel commanders to a conference site in North 
Darfur within the next five days.  Continued rebel 
infighting, however, could still derail the conference. 
While recognizing that any movement to advance the political 
process is positive, the USG should support UN and AU efforts 
through direct engagement with non-signatory leaders to 1) 
articulate the benefits of participation in the conference; 
2) emphasize that ongoing disunity strengthens the Sudanese 
government's hand and makes a solution to the Darfur crisis 
less likely in the near term; 3) underscore the negative 
consequences of two competing conferences of rebel factions; 
and 4) urge them to use the conference as an opportunity to 
resolve their differences.  This will contribute to whether 
the conference is seen as a process-oriented attempt to unify 
the rebel movements in support of peace or as a one-time 
event that could further splinter the rebel movement.  End 
summary and comment. 
 
------------------------------ 
NEW MOMENTUM AND US ENGAGEMENT 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) In recent days, the UN and the AU have demonstrated 
a newfound willingness to facilitate a conference of DPA 
non-signatory rebel commanders.  In a January 13 note 
verbale, the AU requested Sudanese Government security 
assurances for a commanders conference to include Osman 
Bushra, Abdul Yahya, Jar Al Nabi, Suleiman Marjan, Saddiq 
Burra, and Abdul Baker.  The note also asked that observers 
from the USG, EU, the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), and the AU 
Mission in Sudan (AMIS) be allowed to attend.  The Government 
responded with a January 15 note granting the security 
assurances.  Pending logistical arrangements, the AU could 
begin to transport rebel commanders to an as-of-yet 
unspecified location in North Darfur within the next five 
days.  The conference would aim to promote unity among the 
plethora of rebel factions, increase their bargaining 
position vis-a-vis the Sudanese government, and enhance the 
chance of success for a broader political dialogue as 
stipulated in the November 16 Addis Ababa framework -- all of 
which would advance the political process in Darfur and 
encourage non-signatory leaders' support of the DPA.  Despite 
the Sudanese government guarantee of security for the 
conference, however, continued rebel infighting could derail 
it. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Building on the momentum generated by the recent 
visits of UN Special Envoy for Darfur Jan Eliasson and New 
Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (reftels), the USG should 
support the UN and AU in their efforts to organize the 
conference.  Through direct engagement with non-signatory 
leaders -- in both Sudan and Chad -- and with the Chadian and 
Sudanese governments, the USG should: 1) articulate the 
benefits of participation in the conferece; 2) emphasize 
that ongoing disunity strengthens the Sudanese government's 
hand and makes a solution to the Darfur crisis less likely in 
the near term; 3) underscore the negative consequences of two 
competing conferences of rebel factions; and 4) urge them to 
use the conference as an opportunity to resolve their 
differences. 
 
----------------------------------- 
EFFECTIVENESS LINKED TO INCLUSIVITY 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Though any movement to advance the political process 
is positive, the effectiveness of the conference will depend 
on which non-signatory leaders it includes.  Reports indicate 
that a faction led by Adam Bakhit and Khamis Abdullah met 
with representatives of the Justice and Equality Movement 
(JEM) in Chad in the last week.  They are not planning to 
attend the conference, and JEM has claimed that it may hold 
its own, competing conference.  The USG should engage with 
Bakhit and other G-19 leaders to outline the benefits of 
attending the AU-supported conference and encourage them to 
use it as a forum for resolving their differences with other 
non-signatory groups.  Bakhit's attendance would lessen the 
likelihood that the AU commanders' conference would further 
splinter the non-signatories and could draw him away from 
JEM, whose stated goal is the overthrow of the Sudanese 
government.  In turn, the USG should engage with the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000068  002 OF 002 
 
 
non-signatory leaders who are already planning to attend the 
conference, including Bushra and Al Nabi, to underscore the 
value of Bakhit's attendance. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The level of inclusivity and the success of the 
conference will depend on whether it is perceived as a 
one-time, two-day event or a process-oriented attempt to 
unify the rebel movements in support of peace.  This approach 
would allow the conference to evolve over the course of 
several days and leave the door open for a follow-up 
conference after this initial "test run."  According to the 
AU, the Sudanese Government is willing to accept the 
participation of any commanders interested in attending the 
conference, provided they do not represent JEM.  The 
international community, including the AU and the UN, are 
unified in encouraging a process-oriented approach while 
supporting the commanders to take the lead in structuring and 
organizing the conference, with AU logistical support. 
 
----------------------- 
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 
----------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Sudanese Government's January 15 note appointed 
Presidential Advisor Maghzoub al-Khalifa as the government's 
point of contact for the conference and stipulated that the 
"expected support by the UN for that conference should be 
provided directly and not through UNMIS."  UNMIS has not 
received any clarification on this point, but is planning to 
send its head of office in El Fasher and a security officer 
as observers.  The rebels have welcomed international 
observers, as they believe the government is less likely to 
attack the gathering if they are present.  The AU has said 
its role will be limited to facilitating logistics for the 
conference.  The EU plans to send a working-level observer, 
and Post is also prepared to have a political officer attend. 
HUME