VZCZCXRO8689
PP RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0220/01 0221501
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221501Z JAN 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5640
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3558
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000220 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR SA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN 
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A. CG CJTF-76 POLAD 
OSD FOR KIMMITT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID AF
SUBJECT: USING THE BERLIN JCMB MEETINGS TO FLAG NEED FOR 
EARLY ELECTION PREP 
 
KABUL 00000220  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY: The next presidential election is 
scheduled to take place in 2009, followed by national 
assembly elections in 2010.  Given the significant steps that 
must be taken before the next elections, it is imperative 
that preparation begin immediately and have the support of 
the international community.  Key tasks include: establishing 
a permanent Civil Voter Registry (CVR); passing an updated 
Election Law; and organizing and conducting the actual 
elections.  UNAMA is working on a framework, timeline and 
budget estimates for these preparations, but has not begun 
consultations with the GOA, including through the JCMB. 
Embassy and UNAMA agree that the goal should be a plan that 
is as simple as possible, given Afghanistan's limited 
bureaucratic capacity, and affordable, given the governments' 
limited resources and the competing demands on international 
donor support.  One important step would be to combine the 
presidential and parliamentary elections on one date.  Post 
believes that a new JCMB working group is the best place for 
these issues to be addressed.  UNAMA supports the idea of 
using the JCMB Political Directors' meeting in Berlin to flag 
the need to begin the preparation process and to suggest the 
formation of a JCMB working group.  Post recommends points to 
be included in the U.S. delegation's remarks on the second 
day of the Berlin meetings.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The last election cycle in Afghanistan required 
massive international involvement and financial support.  The 
cost to the international community came close to $300 
million, of which the U.S. contributed $150 million.  The 
London Compact mandated greater GOA involvement in the 
preparations for conduct of the next national elections, 
currently secheduled for 2009 and 2010.  It is critical that 
the Political Directors' meeting in Berlin urge the GOA to 
use the JCMB process to begin preparations for elections that 
can be supported organizationally and financially Afghanistan 
itself and by the donor community.  There must be realistic 
expectations regarding key elements of the plan. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Civilian Voter Registry Decisions Needed 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  The London Compact identified the establishment of 
a Civilian Voter Registry (CVR) as a key benchmark in 
promoting Democracy, Justice and Human Rights in the country. 
 Election experts and UNAMA judge that a CVR will 
significantly improve the integrity of the election process, 
and a pilot project, overseen by the Afghan Independent 
Commission and supported by the UN Democracy Fund and UNDP 
core funds, is scheduled for completion in May 2007.  Under 
the current timeline, the national CVR project would have to 
begin this summer in order to be completed by the end of 
¶2008.  Funding has not been established, and estimates range 
from $50 million.  The Ministry of Interior, which has weak 
institutional capacity, is designated as the principal 
implementing agency for the CVR, with help from the 
Independent Election Commission.  It is difficult to be 
optimistic.  While there has been some resistance to the idea 
in the past, Deputy SRSG Chris Alexander has shared that 
UNAMA is prepared to look at piggy-backing the national CVR 
effort on the national census, which is also mandated in the 
London Compact.  This would keep costs down and may help 
ensure quality.  Donor clarity on expectations and an 
acceptable budget for a CVR would help guide the GOA as it 
makes decisions. 
 
----------------------------- 
New Election Law In the Works 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U)  A new election law is required to enshire the 
electoral process established in the first elections.  The 
Independent Election Commission has prepared the draft law 
following a long consultative process in which political 
groups, civil society, partiamentarians, provincial 
representatives and international stakeholders reviewed 
 
KABUL 00000220  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
options.  The draft law is now with the Legislative Office in 
the Ministry of Justice.  It has not yet been submitted to 
the National Assembly, and there are several pieces of 
legislation in front of it, including the budget, the 
restructuring of government law, and the media law.  It is a 
comprehensive law which covers all elections.  The prospects 
for passage are good, but debates will last at least until 
the spring and could become contentious.  Some members of 
parliament will favor the system which got them elected, but 
there is also support for movement from a Single 
Non-transferable Vote (SNTV) to a system which includes at 
least some element of proportional representation. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Expanded Role of the Afghan Election Commission 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) UNAMA has begun work on a draft framework, 
timeline, and budget estimates for initiatives to address 
these and other elements of the election preparation effort. 
They have not submitted their proposal to the GOA for 
consideration, but the plan does provide for a significant 
and expanding role for the Independent Election Commission, 
as mandated as a London Compact benchmark.  This includes a 
field presence in the provinces and will require significant 
investment in capacity building and support for that 
organization as well as the Ministry of Interior. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
Finding a Plan that Fits Afghanistan's Needs/Donors' Budgets 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) UNAMA understands the need to develop a workable 
and affordable plan the GOA and international donors can 
support.  It has signaled openness to the possiblity of 
changing the election schedule to put the presidential and 
parliamentary elections on the same date to reduce financial 
and bureaucratic costs -- an idea we should push.  UNAMA 
supports the idea of using the Berlin JCMB Political 
Directors' meeting to flag the need to get the planning 
process underway and to ask the JCMB to assume the lead in 
sorting through the issues and mobilizing international 
support. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The reciprocal quality of the elections issues 
makes it well suited for the JCMB.  On one hand, donors need 
to be pressed early for financial support without which 
planning cannot proces and the next elections are unlikely. 
On the other, the current schedule that spreads the next 
national elections over two years would vastly increase the 
cost and complexity.  A change in the schedule will require 
adjustments in the constitution, which only underlines the 
need for early pressure to fix the problem. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Points for Consideration for Berlin 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Post recommends the following points as part of 
the U.S. delgation's remarks on the second day of the JCMB 
Political Directors' meeting in Berlin. 
 
The 2004 Presidential Elections and the 2005 National 
Assembly/Provincial Council Elections in Afghanistan were 
tremendous successes and critical milestones for Afghanistan. 
 
 
Those elections required a massive Afghan and international 
effort, which produced results far beyond expectations. 
 
The next Afghan presidential elections are scheduled to take 
place in March-April 2009.  The next parliamentary elections 
are due in 2010.  Elections over two years vastly increase 
the security issues.  They will cost more than donors are 
likely to pay and more than the Afghan Government can afford. 
 The two elections should be held together. 
 
KABUL 00000220  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
There are major tasks that must be completed before the next 
elections take place.  These include: passage of the new 
election law, the development of a civil voter registry; and 
the organization of the elections themselves. 
 
These challenges require the organizational and financial 
support of donors as well as capacity-building within the 
Independent Election Commission and other elements of the 
Government. 
 
We would like to ask the JCMB to consider the establishment 
of an elections working group, supported by UNAMA and the 
donor community at large, to oversee these preparations. 
NEUMANN