VZCZCXRO2848
OO RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0149 0191334
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 191334Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7360
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS DAKAR 000149 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA 
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM SG
SUBJECT: INTRIGUES TO POSTPONE ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. DAKAR 0129 
¶B. 06 DAKAR 2979 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) On January 18, the Minister of Information announced plans 
to postpone legislative elections in response to a January 12 ruling 
by the Council of State, Senegal's highest administrative body.  The 
Council voided President Wade's December decree allotting National 
Assembly seats (Ref B) on the grounds that it disregarded 
demographic criteria in defining electoral constituencies.  Critics 
suspect Wade provoked the Council decision and made election 
postponement more saleable to the public by intentionally violating 
the law.  The ruling Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) is in 
turmoil; the country's socio-economic situation is tense; and Wade 
may wish to focus on reelection rather than devoting energy to the 
even tougher task of maintaining his parliamentary majority.  Wade's 
plan for a new, largely appointed Senate may be designed to appease 
the PDS faithful, but it will give him or his successor at least one 
friendly legislative body.  END SUMMARY. 
 
TAKE IT AND RUN 
--------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) On January 12, Interior Minister Ousmane Ngom and 
Presidential spokesman Amadou Sall, both lawyers, announced within a 
few hours of the Council of State's decision that legislative 
elections would be postponed in order to have time to correct the 
violations censured by the Council.  Responding, the opposition 
argued that the Government lacks legal authority to postpone 
elections, and that the Constitution and law permit correction of 
redistricting violations even as the organization of elections 
proceeds.  On January 18, following the weekly Council of Ministers 
meeting, Minister of Information Bacar Dia announced that the 
legislative elections would take place on June 3, subject to 
approval by the courts. 
 
AN ORCHESTRATED RULING 
---------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) The opposition and some civil society critics accuse Wade 
of committing two violations of the law.  They say he blatantly 
ignored demographic criteria laid out in the Electoral Code when 
attributing seats to administrative districts, and that he signed 
the decree before signing into law the bill on which it is based. 
As an attorney surrounded by other attorneys, cynics argue, Wade had 
to have known he was transgressing, but they believe he did so 
purposefully to trap the opposition into a legal challenge that 
would freeze the redistribution of National Assembly seats and 
provide a plausible pretext for postponing elections. 
 
POLITICAL SURVIVAL 
------------------ 
¶4.  (SBU) By coupling legislative and presidential elections, Wade 
had thought his coattails would enable his ruling party to retain 
its parliamentary majority.  2006 has been a rough year for him, 
though, with growing social and economic tensions, the ongoing 
challenge of ex-Prime Minister Idrissa Seck, the dissatisfaction or 
departure of other young leaders such as ex-Environment Minister and 
influential Mouride Modou Diagne Fada, and Prime Minister Macky 
Sall's inability to resolve internal ruling party rivalries over the 
allotment of Assembly candidacies.  Wade by many accounts feared 
further dissension in his own ranks, and the possibility that his 
own supporters would simply stay home on election day in a fit of 
pique. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶5.  (SBU) It is unclear whether the opposition and Wade's civil 
society critics will get much popular or legal support in pressing 
Wade to maintain the February 25 date for legislative elections. 
Creating a new 100-seat Senate to which President Wade or his 
successor would appoint 65 members is presumably intended to appease 
PDS members and guarantee some control over the legislature should 
the President be forced into cohabitation.  END COMMENT. 
 
JACOBS