VZCZCXYZ0009
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0106/01 0221941
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221941Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7027
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000106 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION KIRCHNER-LULA'S ROLE IN MODERATING CHAVEZ; 
CHINA AND THE SPACE ARMS RACE; THE US AND LATIN AMERICA; 2007 DAVOS 
WEF; TRI-BORDER AREA; EVO MORALES' FIRST YEAR IN POWER; CHAVEZ; US 
AMBASSADOR WAYNE MEETING WITH VP DANIEL SCIOLI; 01/22/07; BUENOS 
AIRES 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend stories include Argentine President Kirchner and Brazilian 
President Lula da Silva's role in moderating Chavez in favor of 
Mercosur's interests; fears of China re-launching its space arms 
race; the two highest-ranking Democratic leaders of Congress 
criticizing the White House for having "disregarded other 'threats' 
and 'challenges', such as those posed by Cuba and Venezuela;" the 
2007 Davos World Economic Forum vis-`-vis "uncontrolled 
globalization;" US intelligence reports on the Tri-Border area; the 
USG's priorities in Latin America; Bolivian President Evo Morales' 
first year in power; Venezuelan President Chavez' project; and US 
Ambassador Wayne's statement that Argentine President Kirchner's 
leadership has a positive impact on the region. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "Kirchner and Lula agree to keep Chavez 'in check'" 
 
Natasha Niebieskikwiat, political columnist of leading "Clarin," 
writes (01/20) "... Kirchner and Lula agreed on the need to moderate 
Chavez's speech in favor of Mercosur's interests, which could be 
affected by the Bolivarian president's rhetoric. 
 
"This is an irritant for the two countries vis-`-vis this wealthy 
and powerful new Mercosur full member, whom they consider a 
strategic partner in spite of his rebuffs." 
 
- "The uncomfortable partner" 
 
Walter Curia, political columnist of leading "Clarin," comments 
(01/20) "The only strategy Kirchner and Lula have available in order 
to deal with the uneasiness generated by Chavez is that one counts 
on the other one. The radicalization of Chavez's regime, which is 
now verging autocracy, posed a tough challenge to both Lula and 
Kirchner at the Mercosur Summit... 
 
"Chavez was included among the security 'challenges' to be met by 
Washington by US Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and the Leader 
of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi... 
 
"In a not too distant future, Chavez could be declared an open 
threat, which perhaps he wishes at some deeper level. Then, the 
balance will hardly be reached. It is difficult to imagine that 
Kirchner and Lula are not thinking about that." 
 
- "Fears of China re-launching its space arms race" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (01/20) "With the destruction of one of its weather 
satellites, China has just demonstrated that it is in a position to 
destroy any of the hundreds of US space espionage and military 
satellites. 
 
"Until now, only two countries have had this ability - the US and 
Russia... On January 12, the US Pentagon secretly watched the 
destruction of the Chinese satellite step by step... 
 
"As predictable, the Bush administration raised an outcry stating 
that China is jeopardizing Washington-Beijing cooperation in arms 
control... 
 
"The truth is that the US has systematically refused to sign a 
global space demilitarization treaty in order to have freedom of 
action in this regard. Some experts like Michael Krepon, from the 
Henry L. Stimson Center, believe that the Chinese test could mean 
the beginning of a diplomatic offensive from Beijing to negotiate 
arms space banning. 
 
"However, others, like Theresa Hitchens, head of the Defense 
Information Center, warn that 'China decided to become a heavyweight 
threat for US satellites.'" 
 
- "Bush is warned on Latin America's tilt to the left" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/20) "For the first time 
since they took over, the two highest-ranking Democratic leaders of 
Congress criticized the White House for having disregarded other 
'threats' and 'challenges', such as those bogged down in Iraq. 
 
"US Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and the Leader of the US 
House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, focused all their criticism 
on Iraq and, to a lesser extent, on Iran and North Korea, but they 
 
 
 
 
also criticized the (USG's) 'overlook' of Latin America. 
 
"According to Reid, Cuba and Venezuela are some of the 'world 
critical challenges that the US should meet.' For him, Fidel Castro 
and Hugo Chavez pose a threat because the two of them want 'to leave 
a leftist mark on young Latin American democracies.' 
 
"Reid was sorry that the two leaders are still broadening their 
influence on the hemisphere because US President George W. Bush is 
so 'absorbed' and 'overwhelmed' by the war in Iraq that he cannot 
focus on these and other 'challenges,' like those of Iran and North 
Korea. 
 
"... For her part, Nancy Pelosi, said that the US should 'pay more 
attention to our neighbors, with whom we share the hemisphere.' 
However, she did not mention any concrete proposal aimed at 
rebuilding bridges with them. She only emphasized the 'social and 
cultural' ties between the US and its 'neighbors' in the region." 
 
- "2007 Davos - an outlook on uncontrolled globalization" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
opines (01/20) "... The roughly 2000 academicians, economists, 
business leaders and political leaders in Davos who will attend a 
new World Economic Forum meeting should leave aside extreme 
simplicity and dogmatic tautologies on the abstract concept of 
'market' and reflect that even ideological systems that could appear 
obsolete could unexpectedly revive while others that seem eternal 
could be broken to pieces in the same bronze on which we attempted 
to perpetuate them. 
 
"... We witness a reaction against the damaging effects of 
globalization... 
 
"There is a growing resentment over asymmetries... Protectionism is 
gaining roots again in developed countries, but not only through the 
claim to protect certain products but for the governments to 
safeguard working positions." 
 
- "The Tri-Border area concerns the US" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/21) "Based on information 
gathered on the Tri-Border area, US intelligence services concluded 
there is no evidence of terrorist groups related to Hezbollah and 
Hamas in the area, but that funds are being collected in the region 
to finance the operations of the two groups, which are termed as 
'terrorist' and 'enemies' of the US. 
 
"US intelligence conclusions appear on the latest report submitted 
by the head of the UN Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican 
Richard Lugar... Its conclusions are in line with the Bush 
administration's prevailing view. 
 
"Entitled "Embassies as posts of command in the antiterrorist 
campaign,' the senatorial report analyzes the ordinary challenges to 
be met by US diplomats and government officials all around the world 
while they plead for the Bush administration's goals in the 
so-called 'war on terror.' 
 
"When speaking about Latin America, Lugar emphasizes that 'there is 
no global terrorist organization in the region posing a direct 
threat to the US.' He submits a 2005 US State Department report, 
according to which no 'terrorist Islamic groups' are acting in the 
hemisphere,' except in the US and Canada. 
 
"However, Lugar immediately focuses on the Tri-Border: 'There are 
isolated groups, particularly on theTriple Frontier, as well as in 
Venezuela and Guyana, that are ideological, financial and logistical 
supporters of Middle East terrorist groups." 
 
- "This will be the 'year of commitment'" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/21) "(A/S) Tom Shannon, the 
visible face of the Bush administration for the hemisphere, said 
during his latest 2006 press conference that '2007 will be the year 
of commitment' between the US and Latin America... He actually 
emphasized US policies. However, others outside of the Republican 
administration are skeptical. 
 
"Everyone acknowledges that Shannon represents conciliatory 
diplomatic practices. However, committing to such diverse countries 
as Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, 
 
 
 
 
Venezuela or Nicaragua will pose a major challenge... The reasons 
for this are diverse. 
 
"Democrats will promote some slight changes on the US policy on Cuba 
and will hinder trade with the region, thereby blocking the Bush 
administration's goals... 
 
"Latin American countries that wanted to have closer ties with the 
US have already built their bridges to achieve this goal. And those 
who have not been interested in this up to now will maintain their 
distance... All leaders of the region know that Bush is... already a 
'lame duck.' 
 
"The White House has a top international priority that will cloud 
everything else for years... - Iraq. And if this was not enough, 
there are other challenges surpassing Latin America - North Korea 
and Iran's nuclear ambitions, the war in Afghanistan and Lebanon's 
disintegration. 
 
"Such a panorama turns Latin America into 'a new Atlantis, the lost 
heartland.' 
 
"Shannon trusts, as well as diplomats from Argentina and other Latin 
American countries, that there will be more opportunities for a 
frank dialogue behind the scenes. He knows that Democratic leaders 
on Capitol Hill could well claim trade and immigration changes, but 
that the Executive Branch will retain day-to-day US foreign policy. 
 
"Then, what will be the (US) priorities for Latin America until 
January 2009 presidential change? Will those priorities change 
vis-`-vis previous years? Not much. 
 
"The Bush administration's priorities include approving FTAs with 
Colombia, Peru and Panama. Only after that, tackling with Cuba, 
Venezuela and Nicaragua will come... 
 
"Elections in Peru and Mexico appeased Washington, marked a brake on 
the hemispheric trend toward the left and also played down Ortega's 
return to Managua... 
 
"... To al this, one should add the Bush administration's public 
diplomacy', which in Buenos Aires is implemented by US Ambassador 
Earl Anthony Wayne (more active than his predecessor Lino Gutierrez 
in the public arena). 
 
"... Washington will make progress with Argentina on its topic of 
most interest - the fight against terror. Americans acknowledged the 
(Argentine) Government's alignment in this regard. But they want 
more - they take the AMIA case investigation as a conclusive piece 
of evidence with regard to the Iranian threat. When the time comes, 
they will use it to promote a diplomatic and military escalation 
against Tehran. This is why they are making progress on this without 
keeping Buenos Aires posted." 
 
- "Evo Morales - one year between heaven and hell" 
 
Ignacio Colo, on special assignment in La Paz for daily-of-record 
"La Nacion," writes (01/22) "... After one year marked by calling a 
Constituent Assembly, the hydrocarbon nationalization legislation 
and multiple popular outbursts in Bolivia, President Evo Morales has 
been in power for twelve months and he opens the doors to a second 
stage, which is marked by a new riddle - how to guarantee governance 
in this rocked and unpredictable country. 
 
"During the first year of his administration, and supported by 
almost 54 percent of the vote, Morales has launched transformational 
measures that have unleashed serious controversy in Bolivia, the 
region and even among foreign investors. 
 
"... Regarding hydrocarbon nationalization, Cayetano Llobet, 
Bolivian political analyst, said 'No one can deny that 
nationalization is a merit of the government.' 
 
"The expert emphasized that it was a publicity win for the 
government because the long-standing claim for nationalization was 
used as a strategy to renegotiate the agreements - in this way, the 
president was able to satisfy multinational companies as well as his 
followers. 
 
"Nonetheless, while the hydrocarbons nationalization issue no longer 
hits the Bolivian papers' headlines, it will have to overcome 
important challenges this year for it to be considered a really 
successful measure. 
 
 
 
 
"... The Morales administration's major Achilles' heel is the 
Constituent Assembly, whose main objective was to 're-found' the 
country. After five months of work, it is completely blocked due to 
internal reasons. 
 
"The controversy is focused on the voting system - either the 
two-thirds or the absolute majority." 
 
- "A new socialism or better democracy" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed story by Mario Toer, professor of 
Latin American Policy, Political Sciences, National University of 
Buenos Aires, who writes (01/22) "... Chavez has promised 
Venezuelans that he wants to lead the country toward 'Socialism of 
the 21st century'... 
 
"... The high Venezuelan growth rate has encouraged the emergence of 
something like 'a Bolivarian bourgeoisie.' Chavez also promised to 
revisit the territorial division and strengthen new communities to 
foster the participation of the social sectors that have recently 
entered the political scenario. 
 
"Chavez should attend to the complicated political configuration in 
the South of the country, which will compel him to be less blunt and 
more thoughtful with his Mercosur allies. Others have chosen more 
prudent statements. For instance, Bolivian VP Alvaro Garcia Linera 
said that what is taking place in his country and the region is 
'some deepening of the democratic revolution.'" 
 
- "Argentine VP Scioli receives the US Ambassador" 
 
Atilio Bleta, columnist of leading "Clarin," writes (01/20) "VP 
Daniel Scioli received credentials from six ambassadors, among them, 
US Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne and Spanish Ambassador Rafael 
Estrella Pedrola. The US and Spain are two of the countries on which 
Argentina places priority in its international relations. 
 
"... The most important visit was that of US Ambassador Wayne, whose 
dynamic attitude surprised the diplomatic circles ever since he 
arrived in the country. Wayne has already held meetings with most of 
the members of the National Cabinet, but he has not met with 
Kirchner so far. 
 
"... According to sources close to VP Scioli, Wayne surprised Scioli 
because he was informed about Scioli's conversation with US 
Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez during Ecuadorian President 
 
SIPDIS 
Rafael Correa's swearing in ceremony. 
 
"Both in his meeting with Gutierrez in Quito and with Wayne 
yesterday, VP Scioli insisted that the US 'should not think in terms 
of FTAA or no FTAA.' And that, on the contrary, it should have 'a 
view of self-criticism and acknowledgement of Latin America,' 
because, according to Scioli, 'there have never been so many 
democratic governments in the region.'" 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE