VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #0437/01 0222027
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 222027Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2142
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1428
INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 8586
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 9893
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 5304
RUEHSJ/AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE 4271
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JAN LIMA 4650
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 3833
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS BOGOTA 000437 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SECSTATE FOR PRM, WHA AND INL 
GENEVA FOR RMA 
USAID FOR LEMARGIE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PGOV PHUM PREF SNAR SOCI CO
SUBJECT: IS INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT DECREASING IN COLOMBIA? 
 
¶1. (U) Summary.  The Government of Colombia and a respected 
Colombian NGO, the Consultancy for Human Rights and 
Displacement (CODHES), are reporting marked decreases (16-30 
percent) in the number of new internally displaced persons 
(IDPs) in the first 9 months of 2006.  However, the 
International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)  argues that, 
based upon trends they observe in the field, there has been 
an increase in the rate of internal displacement from a year 
ago.  ICRC attributes the increase to a  rise in the rate of 
individual displacement, which is often underreported.  While 
the debate over the rate of new internal displacement and the 
number of IDPs overall continues, all sources say new 
displacements continue to occur primarily due to the actions 
of illegally armed groups and conflict between these groups 
and GOC security forces. End Summary 
 
New Internal Displacements: Government, CODHES Show Decline 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The GOC agency responsible for IDPs, Accin Social, 
records all IDPs that register with the government.   From 
January to September 2006, Accin Social registered 110,302 
new displacements.  This is a 16 percent drop from the number 
of IDPs registered during the same period in 2005 (131,716). 
 In contrast,  CODHES estimates that there were 175,216 new 
IDPs in the first 9 months of 2006.  Still, this is a 30 
percent drop from the number of IDPs reported by CODHES in 
the same period in 2005 (252,801), and matches the downward 
trend reported by the GOC. 
 
¶3. (U) The differences in the GOC and CODHES numbers reflect 
several key differences in how the GOC and CODHES statistics 
are determined.  While the GOC reports on the number of new 
IDPs that have been accepted into the national registry 
(Sistema Unico de Registro or SUR), CODHES estimates new 
displacements based on information obtained from the Catholic 
Church, ICRC, the media, civil society, and some field work. 
This information is then compiled and analyzed. 
 
¶4. (U) In addition to differing methodologies, CODHES' 
definition of an IDP is more expansive than the one used by 
the GOC.  CODHES includes individuals who have migrated in 
response to drug eradication efforts, as well as those 
displaced by natural disasters (CODHES cannot provide a 
breakdown of the number of IDPs by type of displacement). 
The GOC does not include these displacements in their 
figures. CODHES also counts multiple displacements. For 
example, if a family is displaced more than once, each 
displacement is considered new and included in the count. 
The GOC registry only counts a displaced individual at the 
time they register.  An individual can only register one time 
with the SUR, even if they have experienced repeated 
displacements. 
 
¶5. (U) These differences in GOC and CODHES statistics are not 
new and are also reflected in their accounting of the overall 
number of IDPs in the country.  Since 1995, the GOC 
identified 1,874,917 Colombians as internally displaced , 
while CODHES estimates the overall number of displaced to be 
3,175,544. 
 
¶6. (U)  The data that the GOC has reported for January 
through September 2006 are expected to change several times 
in the coming months.  As part of its effort to improve the 
registration system, a response to January 2004 and August 
2006 rulings by Colombia's Constitutional Court, the GOC has 
increased outreach efforts and is changing the methodology by 
which they compile, analyze and report displacement data. 
The GOC says these efforts will likely lead to substantial 
revisions in previously reported data. 
 
ICRC: Or is it Increasing? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The ICRC disagrees with the GOC and CODHES 
statistics indicating an overall decline in newly displaced. 
Based on figures it has collected from field operations, the 
number of IDPs ICRC assisted in 2006 increased by about 20 
percent, primarily due to a significant rise in individual 
displacements.  In the first nine months of 2006, ICRC 
assisted 50,415 persons (34,100 from individual displacements 
and 16,315 from mass displacements).  During the same period 
in 2005, ICRC assisted 40,672 persons (24,649 from individual 
displacements and 16,023 from mass displacements). 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The sharp rise in the number of individual 
displacements which, according to ICRC, are less visible and 
more difficult to detect than mass displacements, is a fact 
that neither the GOC nor CODHES may have accounted for. 
While victims of mass displacement events are often readily 
identified and assisted by the GOC and aid groups, 
individuals frequently face greater obstacles to accessing 
assistance and may be unwilling (due to fear) or unable (lack 
of knowledge) to register with the GOC. 
 
Locations of Displacement 
------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) According to all the sources, much of the new 
displacement is due to actions by the FARC, ELN and newly 
emerging groups in the departments of Nario, Antioquia, 
Meta, Caquet, Norte de Santander and Putamayo.  While it is 
generally agreed that paramilitary violence by the AUC has 
declined significantly due to the demobilization process, new 
emerging criminal groups continue to use forced displacement 
to gain control over strategic or economically valuable 
territory.  As fighting between the Colombian Army and 
illegally armed groups has intensified in certain areas (e. 
g. Nario, Antioquia, Norte de Santander and Choc); 
civilians have come under increasing threat.  In such 
situations, many IDPs remained trapped in conflict zones, 
unable to flee the situation and access assistance.  Many 
other new IDPs have moved to areas around large cities such 
as Bogot, Cartagena, Cali and Medellin.  In many big-city 
IDP slums, FARC/ELN sympathizers and/or ex-paramilitaries 
actively discourage IDPs from registering with the government 
through force, intimidation, and disinformation. 
 
Refugee Outflows Also Continue 
------------------------------ 
 
¶10.  (U) It is important to note that these displacement 
figures do not include refugees who may have chosen to cross 
national borders into neighboring countries in pursuit of 
permanent or temporary international protection. (CODHES 
estimates that from January to September 2006, at least 7,372 
Colombians may have crossed into Ecuador, Venezuela and 
Panama). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (U) Data from all sources - GOC, CODHES, and ICRC - shows 
that internal displacement is continuing at an average rate 
of more than 12,000 individuals per month.  With this number 
of forced displacements and their impact on communities 
throughout the country, there is a need to ensure that 
humanitarian attention, protection and reintegration 
assistance to IDPs remains a priority. 
WOOD