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OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHBW #0085/01 0221328
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221328Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0104
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000085 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ELECTIONS: A MIXED PICTURE 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Serbian elections were free and fair 
with high turnout and no significant problems. The 
results suggest difficult negotiations for forming a 
government between the three strongest democratic 
parties: the DS, the DSS and the G-17+ -- the DS just did 
not do well enough to shake up the status quo.  While the 
democratic side of the house outpolled the Radicals and 
Socialists, the distribution of seats will not facilitate 
quick agreement.  We expect negotiations to drag on 
through the 90-to-120 day period required under the 
constitution for forming a government.  Kostunica has 
already suggested that agreement on Kosovo would be 
necessary for forming a coalition.  End Summary 
 
--------------- 
Legal Deadlines 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Official results will be announced by Thursday. 
President Tadic must then choose one of the parties to 
begin negotiations to form a government.  The 
Constitution requires that the parliament be constituted 
within thirty days.  After that, the parliamentary 
session continues for 90 days within which a government 
must be formed.  If there is no agreement at that point 
(latest possible date is May 25 if the RIK confirms the 
results by Thursday, and it takes 30 days for Parliament 
to convene), new elections are called with another 60 
days for campaign and another 120 days for forming a 
government. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Democrats Win -- But Deadlock Possible 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Preliminary results indicate high voter turn out 
with slightly more than four million voters -- officially 
60.4% but even higher since the 6.6 million "registered" 
voters" includes about one million who have died, re-located, 
or are no longer in Serbia.  Good turn out by youth and 
minorities gave democratic parties about 200,000 more 
votes than in the last parliamentary elections in 2003. 
The DS did better than ever with 23 percent of the vote 
(930,000), but the LDP was likely the major recipient of 
younger and return drop-out voters, squeaking in with 
just over 5% of the vote (and 15 seats).  The LDP's 
success in Belgrade (perhaps at DS' expense) meant the 
Radicals were the top vote getter in the capital, a DS 
stronghold.  Unfortunately, participation in Belgrade was 
significantly below the national average. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The DSS-NS coalition did worse than the DSS 
alone in 2003.  However, together with the G-17+ (6.8%), 
the two groupings probably have more seats than the DS, 
if they decide to work together to dictate the shape of 
the next government.  Also relevant to note is that the 
DSS was the top vote getter among Kosovo Serbs, not 
surprising given the DSS campaign and indicative of how 
Kostunica will play the negotiations.  The DS fell short 
on two counts that would have strengthened its hands in 
the negotiations to form a coalition: it received far 
fewer seats than the Radicals (DS-65 vs. SRS-81), and was 
not able to best the DSS and the G-17+ together (DS-65 
vs. DSS and G-17+ - 66).  Conventional wisdom is that DSS 
and G-17+ have an agreement to back each other up in the 
negotiations.  However, since the DS and the DSS cannot 
form a government on their own (their combined 112 seats 
is well short of the 126 seat majority) the G-17+ is in a 
fairly good position to negotiate for more. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Minorities -- Not Clear if Albanians Will Get In 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶5. (U) Minorities will take from 7 to 9 seats.  It is not 
clear yet whether the Albanians' Presevo Valley Coalition 
will get into the parliament.  They are within a couple 
hundred votes of the natural threshold required so there 
will be no definitive answer on their fate until later in 
the week.  Hungarian leader Kassa (SVM) has three; a 
rival Hungarian coalition could take another seat but 
again too early to tell.  Sandzak leader Ugljanin (LZS) 
will get two seats which are pledged in support of DSS. 
The two Roma coalitions got a seat each. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Continued Support for Radicals and Socialists 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Combined, the Radicals and the Socialists got 
virtually the same 1.4 million votes they received in 
¶2003.  Both parties ended up with slightly fewer mandates 
 
BELGRADE 00000085  002 OF 002 
 
 
(SRS 81, SPS 16) but the Radicals remain the top vote 
getter in Serbian national elections.  The Socialists 
took advantage of their extensive party structure to 
overcome a lackluster campaign; most pollsters were 
predicting they would not get into the parliament. 
 
---------------------------- 
LDP Will Be Vocal Opposition 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) The LDP will take its place in parliament as an 
opposition party: progressive, pro-Europe and supporting 
Kosovo independence and full cooperation with ICTY. 
There is very little chance that the party will join any 
coalition with Kostunica's DSS, given the personal 
dislike between the two leaders and the LDP's outspoken 
rejection of Kostunica's views on Kosovo.  LDP leader 
Ceda Jovanovic has good reason to be satisfied: his 
uncompromising position leaves him free to attack both 
the DSS and the Radicals as well as the DS for potentially 
joining a coalition with Kostunica.  Tadic will face 
significant unhappiness inside the party, with members 
likely demanding a high price for any collaboration with 
the DSS.  In the longer term, there could be significant 
defections from DS to LDP, particularly in Belgrade. 
 
-------------------------- 
What to Expect Immediately 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) We expect that Tadic will give the DS a first 
shot at forming a government.  It is likely that 
Kostunica, who will be intent on retaining the PM-ship, 
will be in no hurry, using the Kosovo issue and DS angst 
about new elections to press maximal demands.  In the 
end, it is very possible that the DS will cede the PM 
position and settle for a Deputy Prime Minister position 
(the VIP is suggesting PM candidate Djelic as DPM for 
European Integration) and will push for Interior and 
other key ministries.  Dinkic will push to stay at 
Finance (and with perhaps a DPM title), and maybe to 
control Energy.  DSS partner Ilic (NS) could get another 
Deputy Prime Minister slot and will likely retain control 
of at least part of his Capital Investments patronage. 
All in all, PM Kostunica looks to be in very good shape 
if he can keep Dinkic in his camp. 
 
--------------------- 
Our Public Commentary 
--------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The Ambassador is phoning all of the winners on 
the democratic side, including the LDP.  We have issued a 
press statement (text below) congratulating the voters 
for free and fair elections, and opting for democratic 
parties and a prosperous future.  The Ambassador will 
refrain from any local press commentary for this initial 
week; he will decide how to proceed publicly after the 
results are made official.  We would advise to follow 
broad press themes and stress the voters' choice for a 
stable, democratic and prosperous future. 
 
----------------------- 
Embassy Press Statement 
----------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U) Begin text: The preliminary results indicate 
free and fair elections on Sunday.  By their choices, the 
majority of Serbia's citizens have spoken out in favor of 
a secure, prosperous future inside the Euro-Atlantic 
community.  It is now up to their chosen leaders to form 
a government that delivers such a forward-looking Serbia. 
I would like to congratulate the people of Serbia.  The 
United States looks forward to continuing to work with 
you and your leadership as your country fulfills the 
promise of October 2000.  End Text