VZCZCXRO3138
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0075/01 0191651
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191651Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0094
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000075 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SR
SUBJECT: POLLING: DEMOCRATIC BLOC PARTIES STILL LEADING 
NATIONALISTS ON EVE OF ELECTIONS 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) Most observers and pollsters give the Radical 
Party an edge over the Democratic Party in the contest for 
the top vote-getter in Sunday's elections, although two 
respected Serbian polling agencies for the first time since 
2003 have give the DS higher political ratings than the 
SRS. Prime Minister Kostunica's DSS places a strong third 
in all major surveys, while G17 Plus is the only party of 
the four remaining contenders that looks virtually certain 
to make the five-percent threshold. Turnout, which is 
projected to be between 50-60 percent, is likely to 
determine whether the Socialists and Ceda Jovanovic's LDP 
make threshold, with lower turnout favoring SPS and higher 
turnout favoring LDP. Kostunica may be counting on the G- 
17+ and 6-7 minority party seats to give him enough 
bargaining power to remain prime minister. DS officials, 
however, hope to outpoll the DSS and its allies to place 
them in the driver's seat in coalition talks.  It seems 
unlikely that any coalition emerging from these elections 
will espouse a fundamentally different position on Kosovo 
than the current government.  End Summary. 
 
FINAL PREELECTION POLLING NUMBERS 
--------------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) Twenty election lists will be on the ballot when 
Serbian voters go to the polls on Sunday, including six 
representing ethnic minority parties. Of the 14 parties 
subject to a five-percent threshold necessary to earn a 
place in parliament, however, only three--the Serbian 
Radical Party (SRS), Democratic Party (DS), and the 
coalition led by the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)--are 
guaranteed to cross the threshold and only four others 
appear to have a fighting chance of doing so, according to 
the latest survey results from Serbia's most respected 
polling agencies. 
 
         SCAN     CeSID    SMMRI     Gallup    Avg. 
SRS       27       26        30        29       28 
DS        31       30        26        24       28 
DSS-NS    16       19        18        19       18 
G17+       6        8         8         7        7 
SPS        5        6         4         6        5 
LDP+       5        5         5         5        5 
SPO        4        4         3         4        4 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The Scan and CeSID polling results are notable 
for marking the first time since 2003 that a party other 
than the Radicals commands the highest political ratings in 
Serbia. Even high-level DS officials, however, have 
expressed strong doubts to Poloffs about their chances of 
outpacing the Radicals on Sunday, and both Strategic 
Marketing (SMMRI) chief Srdjan Bogosavljevic and Medium 
Gallup chief Srbobran Brankovic are convinced that the 
SRS's dedicated electoral base and campaign surge since 
Orthodox Christmas will be enough to beat the DS. 
 
TURNOUT CRITICAL TO CHANCES OF SMALLER PARTIES 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶4.  (SBU) Of the four other main contenders, pollsters 
agree that Mladjan Dinkic's G17 Plus is almost certain to 
cross the election census and Foreign Minister Vuk 
Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) has only a slim 
chance of doing so. Dinkic by all accounts has conducted 
the most focused, energetic, and effective campaign, while 
Draskovic has largely failed to overcome the perception 
that a vote for his party is a wasted one. Ceda Jovanovic's 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition has seen its 
prospects suffer from a surging DS campaign and less 
exposure granted to the coalition's campaign by Serbia's 
media. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Pollsters generally have been surprised at the 
degree to which the coalition bringing together the United 
Pensioners Party and Nebojsa Covic's Social Democratic 
Party (PUPS-SDP) appears to have siphoned off votes from 
the Socialist Party and put the SPS at risk of falling 
short of the five-percent threshold. Brankovic and Scan's 
Milka Puzigaca both expect the SPS to make it into 
parliament if turnout does not exceed 55 percent, as they 
both currently project, but the SPS's chances are dim if 
turnout reaches 58-60 percent, as Strategic Marketing and 
CeSID project. Bogosavljevic believes that SPS leader Ivica 
Dacic's 3.6 percent showing in the 2004 presidential 
elections are a more accurate barometer of the SPS's 
current chances than the party's 7.6 percent result in the 
2003 parliamentary elections, since the party can no longer 
rely on their traditional voters' loyalty to the late 
Slobodan Milosevic. 
 
MINORITY PARTIES 
 
BELGRADE 00000075  002 OF 002 
 
 
---------------- 
¶6.  (SBU) Six out of the 20 election lists represent ethnic 
minority parties, which only need to cross the "natural" 
threshold of 12,000-16,000 votes per deputy seat, depending 
on turnout. The Republican Election Commission also granted 
these parties a lower threshold of required signatures-- 
3,000 instead of the minimum 10,000 demanded by the 
election law--to make it onto the ballot. This 
controversial decision may face a legal challenge by Josef 
Kasa's Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM) if its co- 
ethnic competitor, the Hungarian Concord coalition, passes 
the natural threshold, since the SVM is the only minority 
party that obtained 10,000 signatures. In addition to these 
two Hungarian parties, Sulejman Ugljanin's Bosniak List for 
Sandzak (LZV), the Coalition of Albanians of the Presevo 
Valley, and two Roma parties--the Union of Roma of Serbia 
(URS) and the Roma Party--also are on the ballot. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Kasa has stated publicly that he would be 
disappointed if he does not earn at least four deputy 
seats, while Ugljanin is unlikely to win more than two 
seats and the ethnic Albanian list will be lucky to win 
more than one seat. Ugljanin's archnemesis, Rasim Ljajic, 
chose to piggyback on the DS election list, in exchange for 
guarantees that his Sandzak Democratic Party would get at 
least three parliamentary seats. The two Roma parties' 
chances are far more uncertain, given the traditional 
factionalization of Roma politics, the high abstention 
rates of Roma, and the tendency of the vast majority of 
Roma voters to support the major Serbian parties, including 
the Radicals. 
 
POST-ELECTION CALCULATIONS 
-------------------------- 
¶9.  (SBU) It is possible that the votes of the minority 
parties will be necessary to secure a parliamentary 
majority for Serbia's new governing coalition and will be 
critical in determining whether President Tadic or Prime 
Minister Kostunica has the upper hand in coalition 
negotiations. The DSS is supporting, to varying degrees, 
the SVM, LZV, and URS campaigns, so even if DS 
significantly outpaces the DSS, Kostunica appears to be 
counting on the 6-7 seats that these three minority parties 
are likely to gain and G17's support to give him sufficient 
bargaining power to retain his position as prime minister. 
Bogosavljevic, who regularly advises the DS, warned that a 
parity of seats between DS on the one hand and DSS and G17 
on the other could be a formula for stalemate in coalition 
negotiations and even increase the risk of repeat 
elections. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Tadic's deputy chief of staff Branko Radujko 
told us, however, that the DS will be in the driver's seat 
in coalition talks as long as the total number of seats 
gained by the DSS and SRS does not reach 126 seats, which 
represents a parliamentary majority. Although DSS officials 
have told us privately that they have no intention of 
exploring a coalition with the Radicals, they have refused 
publicly to exclude the possibility apparently in order to 
maximize the party's leverage in future coalition talks 
with the DS.  The SRS has publicly ruled out a coalition 
with the DSS. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶11.  (SBU) The latest poll results reaffirm that a DSS-DS 
government is the most likely coalition emerging from 
Sunday's parliamentary elections.  Negotiations will depend 
on the final seat count in an election in which it is 
almost impossible to predict final numbers.  The latest 
polling is within the margin of error on whether the 
Socialists, the SPO and the LDP cross the five percent 
threshold, a critical factor in the final distribution of 
mandates.  In any event, negotiations to form a government 
will not be easy and could drag on for several months. 
 
POLT