VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0220/01 0300856
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300856Z JAN 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3902
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6289
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7521

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000220 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - LLOYD NEIGHBORS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
 
Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage January 30 on the debt-ridden Rebar Asia Pacific Group; on 
the Legislative Yuan's decision Monday not to hold an extraordinary 
session; on the year-end legislators' elections; and on a young TV 
actress, who died Sunday in a serious car crash.  All three 
English-language papers ran on their inside pages a Central News 
Agency story which quoted AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt as saying 
on Sunday that " U.S.-China-Taiwan relations are currently stable, 
regardless of the state of Washington-Taipei, Washington-Beijing or 
cross-Taiwan Strait ties."  In terms of editorials and commentaries, 
an op-ed piece in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" commented on 
President Chen Shui-bian's recent remarks regarding Taiwan's new 
constitution and its UN bid.  The article said Chen has successfully 
taken advantage of the changing international situation and sown new 
discord between Washington and Beijing over the Taiwan issue.  End 
summary. 
 
"A-Bian [Successfully] Seizes the Achilles' Heel in the U.S.-China 
Relations" 
 
Emerson Chang, Director of Nan Hua University's Department of 
International Studies, opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" 
[circulation: 500,000] (1/30): 
 
"President Chen Shui-bian proposed January 26 in front of five 
former foreign heads of state that he will push for the writing of a 
new constitution and the island's bid to join the United Nations 
under the name of Taiwan.  He made the same announcement to the 
whole world again on CNN January 27.  It is generally believed that 
Chen's purpose for doing so is to seek to take on the role as 
paramount leader for Taiwan independence, to shift the public's 
attention from the scandals [involving the First Family], and to set 
the tone for the next election campaign.  Such a view is quite 
plausible and evident. ... 
 
"... After Chen gave his New Year address for 2007, China's Taiwan 
Affairs Office waited for two whole weeks before it announced that 
this year will be 'a critical year for anti-Taiwan independence.' 
As of January 29, Chinese officials did not say anything, not even 
giving an intimidating statement, to Chen's announcement on January 
¶26.  By coincidence, it was all silence for Washington as well. 
Neither the U.S. representative in Taiwan nor the State Department 
has released any routine or standard answer.  This deadlocked 
situation indicated that both Washington and Beijing are giving 
serious thoughts about how to respond [to Chen's remarks], and their 
pondering is a result of the changes in the international 
[political] climate. 
 
"It has been just a year since Chen mentioned the writing of a new 
constitution on the Lunar New Year holiday in 2006 (the first time 
he mentioned it was in October 2003), but for both Washington and 
Beijing, major changes in the international environment happened 
just during this past year.  In an attempt to safeguard its 
hegemonic position in East Asia, the United States has started from 
the beginning of 2006 to resume its plan about the island chain in 
the Pacific and to lure India into becoming its strategic partner. 
By doing so Washington will be able to contain China anytime from 
East Asia and South Asia; in the meantime, it intends to control the 
Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca, a path where oil delivered 
to China must pass.  But this strategy failed to work because the 
Pacific island chain has got rusty; China has long since established 
a 'pearl chain'-like strongpoint along the coast from Pakistan to 
Hainan; and China has successfully befriended India. 
 
"Pyongyang's nuclear test also sabotaged Washington's strategic 
containment attempt in Northeast Asia.  The United States has not 
only failed to contain China, but its territory has also been 
surrounded by China, North Korea, and Russia in the shape of a sack. 
 Washington thus urgently needs to strengthen its alliance with 
Japan, and the strategic importance of Taiwan, as a result, has 
risen all of a sudden.  One evident consequence was that the United 
States could no longer follow its previous practices and publicly 
rebuked Chen's remarks.  Washington's changing attitude toward Chen 
was actually traceable:  It granted Chen's transit of California in 
early January.  The cross-Strait issue will also be included and 
play a significant role on the agenda of the (two plus two) meetings 
between high-ranking U.S. and Japanese defense and foreign affairs 
officials in February. 
 
"... Since Chen has successfully seized the opportunity and taken 
advantage of the change in the international environment, and he has 
presented an appropriate position paper (namely, Taiwan's UN bid 
under the name of Taiwan does not violate the 'Five Nos' pledge, and 
that writing a new constitution is meant to stabilize the results of 
[Taiwan's] democratization), it is expected that the United States 
will let him do it.  Washington indeed has yet to give any negative 
response [to Chen].  The earliest public reaction from the United 
States came from AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt, who merely said on 
January 27 that the U.S.-Taiwan relations are currently stable. 
 
Such a development put Beijing into pondering on how it should react 
when it obviously cannot 'restrain Taiwan via the United States.' 
 
"... Regardless of how China reacts, Chen has successfully cashed in 
on the changes in the outer environment and destroyed the possible 
situation that Washington and Beijing will work together to 
marginalize Taiwan.  In addition, he has sown new discord between 
the two over the Taiwan issue.  No matter whether it bodes well for 
Taiwan or not, Chen's resourcefulness in terms of [Taiwan's] foreign 
relations is as good as his predecessor's." 
 
YOUNG