VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0155/01 0220904
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 220904Z JAN 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3811
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6253
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7482

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000155 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - LLOYD NEIGHBORS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA'S ANTI-SATELLITE MISSILE TEST, 
U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage January 20-22 on the brawl at the Legislative Yuan's final 
session last Friday, which resulted in failure to pass the FY 2007 
budget for the Central Government and other bills; on the 
debt-ridden Rebar Asia Pacific Group; and on the trial hearing in 
the Presidential Office Allowance for State Affairs case last 
Friday.  In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed piece in 
the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed China's recent 
anti-satellite missile test, saying China's move was a military 
intimidation strategy with the intent of warning Japan and testing 
the United States' military strength.  An editorial in the 
limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taipei 
Times" wrote that "it has become clearer that the Chinese military 
is growing more confident and playing the Pentagon for a pack of 
fools."  An editorial in the limited-circulation, conservative, 
pro-unification, English-language "China Post," on the other hand, 
discussed a book by a U.S. professor, Bernard Cole, on Taiwan's 
security, which talked about Taiwan's soldiers lacking the will to 
wage a fight in the event of a cross-Strait war.  The article said 
"there are other factors besides over-reliance on American help" 
behind the declining morale of Taiwan's armed forces.  End summary. 
 
¶2. China's Anti-Satellite Missile Test 
 
A) "[Starting] an Anti-Satellite Missile War, China Publicly 
Challenges Japan and the United States" 
 
Emerson Chang, the Director of Nan Hua University's, Department of 
International Studies, opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" 
[circulation: 500,000] (1/22): 
 
"What was the real reason behind China's launching a ground-based 
missile to destroy its weather satellite?  Why did Beijing choose to 
take this internationally controversial military action on January 
11?  This article believes that this is not a random incident but 
the execution of a military intimidation strategy with the intention 
of expressing [China's] strong displeasure over the recent 
development of the U.S.-Japan military alliance.  First, [this 
incident] is China's counterattack against the U.S.-Japan 
containment moves. ...  Second, since China's diplomatic strategy 
can hardly stop the recovery of Japan's militarism, it needs to 
adopt tougher means to warn Japan. ... 
 
"Third, China decided to adopt the means of military coercion so as 
not be taken as a paper tiger. ...  Fourth, [Japanese Prime 
Minister] Abe is also seeking to strengthen his country's 
cooperation with NATO in an attempt to play a more important role in 
global security affairs.  Such a move has further threatened China. 
... In the face of Japan's hostility, China has no intention of 
backing off; it acted as planned and used the anti-satellite missile 
to counterattack Japan's militarism, as symbolized by the latter's 
move to change the status of its Defense Agency to that of a 
cabinet-level Defense Ministry. ... 
 
"This incident [and the other one in which a Chinese attack 
submarine stalked the USS Kitty Hawk carrier battle group in late 
October 2006] indicated that China was obviously testing the United 
States' military strength and its determination.  But the U.S. 
reactions were almost the same; it hesitated over how to respond to 
China's provocative moves. ... Washington's hesitation will surely 
encourage [Chinese President] Hu Jintao to resume the path of 
peaceful rising, and he will put his emphasis on rising rather than 
on peace." 
 
B) "China's Missile Tests the US" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (1/20): 
 
"... The US has been joined by Japan, Australia and other countries 
in demanding some form of accountability from the Chinese for their 
extraordinary behavior, but regardless of how Beijing responds, this 
incident demolishes the suggestion that the Chinese military and its 
Communist Party bosses can behave in an accountable, let alone 
responsible, manner in military and space affairs.  In the wake of 
the North Korean nuclear test, this missile test suggests that 
Beijing has, if anything, taken on Pyongyang as a role model. ... 
 
"In tandem with this, it has become clearer that the Chinese 
military is growing more confident and playing the Pentagon for a 
pack of fools.  It defies common sense that the Chinese could launch 
this missile without informing Washington and international 
scientific organizations beforehand, yet this is just what appears 
to have happened.  Almost as worrying as the missile test is the 
fact that the Bush administration sat on the news of this 
development for a week before bringing it to public attention. 
Washington's delay suggests that it has frighteningly little 
comprehension of the need for an immediate and unequivocal response 
 
- if not retaliation - over Beijing's misuse of space technology and 
its ramping up of military tensions in what is already a tense 
region. 
 
"The theory that the Middle East quagmire is compromising the 
security interests of the US by giving the Chinese diplomatic room 
to maneuver and allowing it to expand its military capabilities with 
impunity is gaining more currency.  Of greatest concern for Taiwan, 
therefore, is the possibility that the US government's ability to 
retaliate against symbolic and technical advances in China's 
military capabilities has been dulled.  The US State Department, and 
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in particular, must denounce the 
 
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Chinese launch in the strongest terms and prepare a practical 
response if they are to be taken seriously in the region. 
Tongue-clucking and muted expressions of regret from the State 
Department will not wash.  The Chinese can destroy satellites from 
ground-based missiles and they want the world to know it.  Beijing 
must be made to understand that responsible nations will not 
tolerate the direction in which it has chosen to travel." 
 
¶3. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
"Factors Behind Declining Morale in Our Armed Forces" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (1/21): 
 
"... It is most amazing that our American friends have trouble 
understanding delays in the process of approving arms budgets, since 
the U.S. Congress is notorious for doing exactly the same thing year 
after year.  While the Bush administration's proposed arms purchase 
package has indeed been delayed in our Legislature for six years, it 
is common for weapons systems budgets to get delayed in the U.S. 
Congress for much longer.  While we accept criticism from our 
American friends, who after all are only concerned about maintaining 
our security, we do wish that they would spend less time listening 
to each other inside the Washington Beltway and more time thinking 
about the implications of what they say. 
 
"We can hardly imagine that there is any country in the world, 
perhaps except for Israel, that can stay in a state of perpetual 
readiness for the outbreak of war.  While there are surely problems 
with morale in our armed forces, there are other factors besides 
over reliance on American help for these problems.  For example, 
President Chen Shui-bian's administration has fomented widespread 
discontent among officers of the arms forces by reducing retirement 
budgets and cronyism in promotions.  And while the former goal of 
'recovering' mainland China from the communists has been abandoned, 
the new government has yet to lay out a goal that all members of the 
armed forces, regardless of party affiliation, can rally around." 
 
YOUNG