VZCZCXRO5758
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #0131/01 0231436
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231436Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8388
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0079
RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0077
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5966
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000131 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W AND INR/AA 
NSC FOR CHUDSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA ELECTION SNAPSHOTS #4 
 
REF: A. 06 ABUJA 3216 
     ¶B. 06 ABUJA 3061 
     ¶C. 06 ABUJA 2917 
 
ABUJA 00000131  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) This cable is the fourth in a series of elections 
snapshots designed to provide a sense of the local 
environment in the run up to the elections planned for April 
¶2007.  In-depth information will continue to be reported in 
septels, with the snapshot format being used to convey 
interesting and pertinent anecdotes or facts. Post welcomes 
any comments or suggestions. 
 
------------------- 
TALLY OF CANDIDATES 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  As the February 3 deadline to withdraw candidates 
and the February 13 deadline for their replacement 
approaches, the leading political parties have held their 
conventions, named their candidates and, in most cases, 
selected vice presidential running mates.  The list at 
present is: 
 
People's Democratic Party (PDP): Katsina Governor Umar Musa 
Yar,Adua. Running mate is Bayelsa Governor Goodluck 
Jonathan.  The PDP announced the kick-off of their 
presidential campaign will be January 27 in Lagos; however, 
Yar'adua has already been making a series of appearances 
around the country. 
 
All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP): General Muhammadu Buhari. 
Running mate is Chief Edwin Umeh Ezeoke (from the southwest), 
current ANPP Chairman.  Buhari,s running mate is rumored to 
be likely to change as negotiations continue.  Two front 
runners at the moment are John Nwodo, former Minister of 
Information, and Ken Nnamani, current Senate President.  In a 
January 22 public statement, Buhari warned of a "crisis of 
very serious proportions" if the April elections are marred 
by rigging. 
 
Action Congress (AC): Atiku Abubakar.  Running mate is Chudi 
Nwuke. 
 
African Democratic Congress (ADC):Professor Pat Utomi 
 
Alliance for Democracy (AD): Adebayo Adefarati 
 
Democratic People's Party (DPP): Sokoto Governor Attahiru 
Bafarawa.  Bafarawa will launch his campaign on January 24 in 
Kaduna.  He later plans to travel to Enugu, Port Harcourt, 
and Lagos. 
 
Progressive People's Alliance (PPA): Abia Governor Orji Uzor 
Kalu.  Running mate is Mariya Baba 
 
All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA): Odumegwu Ojukwu 
 
National Democratic Party (NDP): Habu Fari 
 
Fresh Democratic Party (FRESH): Reverend Chris Okotie 
 
National Conscience Party (NCP): Osagie Obanuwa.  Running 
mate is Yanusa Tanko 
 
African Renaissance PArty (ARP): Yahaya E. Ndu 
 
Citizen Popular Party (CPP): Maxi Okwu 
 
Massess Movement of Nigeria (MMN): Mokisola Adekunles Obasanjo 
 
Better Nigerian Progressive Party (BNPP): Iheanyi Godswill 
Nnaji 
 
--------------------------- 
INEC AND VOTER REGISTRATION 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Media reports on January 23 indicate that the Villa 
 
ABUJA 00000131  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
is concerned by a move in the Senate to declare a vote of no 
confidence in Maurice Iwu's leadership of INEC.  A two-thirds 
vote would theoretically compel President Obsanjo to remove 
Iwu from office, although there is speculation over whether 
the president would comply.  The bill is sponsored by Senator 
Timothy Adudu of Plateau State. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Action Congress (AC) secured an injunction in 
Abuja High Court on January 22 preventing INEC from 
continuing its candidate verification exercise.  If INEC 
honors the order, they would be prevented from issuing any 
statement saying that Atiku's legal troubles disqualify him 
from seeking the presidency.  Atiku's campaign claims that 
this is the only purpose of the verification exercise, which 
has already screened and cleared PDP candidate Umaru 
Yar'adua.  Other political parties and, in fact, state and 
local PDP candidates have also maintained INEC's screening of 
candidates is outside its mandate and authority.  INEC 
continues to claim that its screening process is aimed at 
"verifying the validity of credentials;" however, no 
specifics have been given on what this means. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Press reports indicate that two direct data capture 
machines were found in the home of former Chief of Staff to 
the former Oyo State Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala.  The 
machines were allegedly being used to carry out duplicate 
registrations.  Despite attempts to flee with the machines, 
three persons were arrested, including one INEC official, and 
the machines were recovered.  The Oyo State INEC Resident 
Commissioner claimed to have no knowledge of how the machines 
ended up in a private residence on the opposite side of the 
state from their appointed site.  The arrests were made by 
SSS, with local sources telling the press that calls to the 
police and INEC to alert them of the abuse were ignored. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Kwara and Ekiti states both declared two work-free 
days during the week of January 22-26 in order to allow 
workers to register in larger numbers for the upcoming 
elections. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
ATIKU RETURNS - LONDON MEETING WITH BUHARI 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Vice President Atiku Abubakar returned to Abuja on 
January 21 following a month's vacation in the United States. 
 Press reports indicate that before returning to Abuja, Atiku 
met in London with ANPP candidate General Buhari to discuss a 
possible ANPP/AC alliance for the forthcoming elections.  The 
GON prevented all but 20 of Atiku's supporters from meeting 
his plane as it landed in Abuja.  Upon his return, the Vice 
President says is unable to return to his official residence 
and office because the President continues to deny him perks 
of the office such as security details and paid staff. 
Representatives of the presidency maintain that Atiku has 
simply chosen to stay away.  The Supreme Court will hear the 
suit brought by Atiku, seeking to stop Obasanjo's attempts to 
remove him as Vice President, on January 25. 
CAMPBELL