null
Carol X Weakley  12/07/2006 04:14:32 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Carol X Weakley

Cable 
Text:                                                                      
                                                                           
      
UNCLAS        TEL AVIV 04752

SIPDIS
CXTelA:
    ACTION: PD
    INFO:   POL DAO DCM AMB

DISSEMINATION: PD
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: PAO:HKFINN
DRAFTED: PD:MKONSTANTYN
CLEARED: AIO:GJANISMAN

VZCZCTVI812
PP RUEHC RHEHAAA RHEHNSC RUEAIIA RUEKJCS RUEAHQA
RUEADWD RUENAAA RHEFDIA RUEKJCS RUEHAD RUEHAS RUEHAM RUEHAK
RUEHLB RUEHEG RUEHDM RUEHLO RUEHFR RUEHRB RUEHRO RUEHRH
RUEHTU RUCNDT RUEHJM RHMFISS RHMFISS RHMFIUU
DE RUEHTV #4752/01 3411049
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071049Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8049
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEADWD/DA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUENAAA/CNO WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 1328
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 8091
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 1184
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 2095
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 1311
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 9008
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 2033
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 8953
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 9397
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 6073
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 3452
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 8331
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 2565
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 4472
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 5283
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT  PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TEL AVIV 004752 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
DA WASHDC FOR SASA 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR PA 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL FOR POLAD/USIA ADVISOR 
COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE FOR PAO/POLAD 
COMSIXTHFLT FOR 019 
 
JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶1.  Iraq Study Group Report 
 
¶2.  Iran 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
Leading media (banner in Ha'aretz) cited the recommendations of the 
Iraq Study Group (a.k.a. Baker-Hamilton committee), which were made 
public at the US Senate on Wednesday.  Ha'aretz quoted President 
Bush as saying that the US administration will reflect on the 
recommendations but that it does not pledge to adopt them.  The 
media said that the Group's report called for a "Madrid Conference 
framework," referring to the 1991 Madrid Conference, as well as 
direct Israeli-Syrian negotiations that could lead to a return of 
the Golan Heights.  The Group said that the US must support PA 
Chairman [President] Mahmoud Abbas and the creation of a Palestinian 
national unity government.  Leading media reported that PM Ehud 
Olmert's bureau and other GOI officials are not concerned about 
President Bush modifying his Mideast policy.  Olmert said in a 
speech today that the report is primarily a domestic American issue, 
and that President Bush and senior US officials recently assured him 
that they do not support Israeli-Syrian talks over the Golan 
Heights.  The Jerusalem Post quoted senior diplomatic sources in 
Jerusalem as saying on Wednesday that the White House will not 
pressure Israel into talking to Syria.  The media also cited the 
main recommendations of the report: shifting the role of US forces 
in Iraq from fighting to training the Iraqi military, diminishing 
the number of American soldiers in Iraq, and encouraging direct 
talks between the US and Iran and Syria.  The Jerusalem Post 
reported that Knesset members from across the political spectrum 
noted how drastically relations between Israel and the US had 
changed in the past year. 
 
Yediot reported that Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh (Labor 
Party) was an adviser to the Iraq Study Group. 
 
Israel Radio quoted Defense Secretary-appointee Robert Gates as 
saying at a Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday that Israel has 
nuclear weapons.  Yaron Dekel, the radio's Washington correspondent, 
said that Gates infringed the ambiguity policy that had been 
maintained by all Israeli governments and embraced by successive US 
administrations. 
 
Maariv quoted senior GOI sources as saying that Israel accepts the 
original Saudi initiative (as made public at the time by New York 
Times newsman Thomas Friedman, among others).  The newspaper 
reported that the US and Israel are holding confidential contacts in 
order to adapt the "Arab initiative" to Israel's diplomatic 
limitations and reach an agreed-upon formula that would the start of 
negotiations with the "Arab Quartet"  composed of Saudi Arabia, 
Jordan, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates.  Maariv wrote that 
those four countries are involved in the contacts.  Maariv quoted 
Saudi sources as saying that, should Israel accept the principles of 
the Saudi initiative, this would change the entire region and Saudi 
Arabia would lead that change. 
 
Israel Radio quoted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak as saying on 
Wednesday en route to Europe that the negotiations over the release 
of kidnapped IDF soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit have reached their last 
stage and that Hamas's assent is being awaited.  However, Mubarak 
was quoted as saying that other elements are intervening -- in 
contradiction with the Palestinians' interest.  Ha'aretz reported 
that among those whose release Hamas intends to demand is Abbas 
Sayed, the mastermind of the massacre at the Park Hotel in Netanya 
over Passover in 2002, in which 29 civilians were killed.  Israel 
Radio quoted the Palestinian daily Al-Ayyam as saying that 
Palestinian factions in Gaza, with the exception of Hamas, have 
devised an expanded "tahdiya" (calm period) for 2007, during which 
Israeli forces would pull out from Palestinian cities and make other 
concessions. 
 
Major media cited an IDF report released on Wednesday that IDF 
soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev are thought to have 
suffered serious injuries-- one of them critically -- at the time of 
their abduction last July by Hizbullah.  The media cited the 
dissatisfaction of the abductees' families over Olmert's recent 
statements that they may not be alive. 
 
Ha'aretz and Maariv reported that French President Jacques Chirac 
told FM Tzipi Livni in Paris on Wednesday that Israel should stop 
flying warplanes over Lebanon in what Israel says is an effort to 
gather intelligence on Hizbullah arms smuggling.  The Jerusalem Post 
quoted French FM Philippe Douste-Blazy as saying at a press 
conference with Livni that the overflights cannot be considered a 
separate element of UN Security Council Resolution 101, and that all 
elements need to be implemented.  Maariv cited Livni's belief that 
the crisis over the overflights is over.  Various media reported 
that Livni told Chirac that the flights are for intelligence 
purposes only. 
 
Maariv reported that Olmert will meet next week with Pope Benedict 
XVI in the Vatican, and that the two are expected to discuss Iran's 
nuclear program and the situation in the territories.  Olmert's trip 
will include Germany and Italy. 
 
The Jerusalem Post quoted a member of the Hamas-led PA government as 
saying on Wednesday that Hamas officials have managed to smuggle 
more than USD 66 million in cash through the Rafah border crossing 
in the past eight months.  Citing the Palestinian news agency Maan, 
Hatzofe quoted a Hamas source as saying that several European 
countries, including the UK and France, have started a channel of 
talks with Hamas.  Hatzofe quoted Palestinian Legislative Council 
member and chair of the Palestinian prisoners' committee Issa Karaka 
(phon.) as saying that the Palestinian government has paid hundreds 
of thousands of shekels to Israel (one shekel equals approximately 
USD 0.24) for the release of Palestinian cabinet ministers who were 
detained in Israel. 
 
The Jerusalem Post and Maariv reported that serious unexplained 
technical glitches are plaguing the Iranian nuclear program.  The 
newspapers cited a Western assessment that the malfunctions will be 
fixed in two months.  Ha'aretz, Yediot, and The Jerusalem Post 
reported that Iran's Foreign Ministry will hold a conference next 
week at which scholars from 30 countries will discuss the scale of 
the Holocaust and whether the Nazis really used gas chambers to kill 
Jews. 
 
Major media reported that in a report he presented to the IDF's 
General Staff in November, Maj. Gen. Amiram Levine was highly 
critical of the conduct of Northern Command during the recent war in 
Lebanon. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that Israel plans to set up a 160 
million-shekel (approximately USD 38 million) private equity fund to 
help develop the businesses of the country's Arab citizens over the 
next decade. 
 
Ha'aretz printed a Reuters story about heart surgery performed by 
Israeli doctors on Palestinian children. 
 
---------------------------- 
¶1.  Iraq Study Group Report: 
---------------------------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Washington correspondent Shmuel Rosner wrote on page one of the 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz: "About half the report covered 
something allegedly unrelated to the matter at hand -- a 
comprehensive solution to the Middle East problem centered on an old 
idea that never loses its vitality." 
 
Foreign News Editor Arik Bachar wrote in popular, pluralist Maariv: 
"The message conveyed in the recommendations of the Iraq Study 
Group] Report is weakness -- American exhaustion in the face of the 
fanatical determination of Islamic extremists." 
 
Zalman Shoval, senior Likud member and former ambassador to the US, 
wrote on page one of the conservative, independent Jerusalem Post: 
"Israeli diplomacy ... must now make a major effort to resist the 
attempts to 'Palestinianize' the situation in Iraq, with Israel 
being asked to pay for it." 
 
Washington correspondent Orly Azolai wrote in the mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot: "Bush now has the opportunity of showing 
how much he loves Israel." 
 
Military correspondent Alex Fishman wrote in Yediot Aharonot: "The 
report that was submitted on Wednesday by Baker and Hamilton about a 
change in American policy in the region reflects the process in 
which the momentum of the extremist Shi'ites in the region has 
gained strength, while the 'American regional order,' which peaked 
in 2003, is in decline." 
 
Arab affairs correspondent Zvi Bar'el wrote on page one of Ha'aretz: 
"The solution must be found within Iraq, among the various political 
and ethnic forces that constitute that nation." 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "Old Idea Still Fresh" 
 
Washington correspondent Shmuel Rosner wrote on page one of the 
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (12/7): "About half the report 
covered something allegedly unrelated to the matter at hand -- a 
comprehensive solution to the Middle East problem centered on an old 
idea that never loses its vitality: Resolving the Arab-Israeli 
problem is the key to stabilizing the entire region.  US 
administrations from Eisenhower to Clinton have thought so, James 
Baker apparently thinks so, having proven it throughout his term as 
secretary of state.  The report could be seen as a policy proposal, 
 
SIPDIS 
but no less as the chair's ego trip as well.  Baker proposes a 
summit 'like Madrid' and refers positively to the measures of the 
early '90s.  The Baker Report undermines everything Bush and his 
aides have believed, everything they have declared in recent years. 
The question is how they will neutralize the clauses that bother 
them without angering a public thirsty for new solutions." 
 
II.  "Call When You Find a Serious Palestinian Leadership" 
 
Foreign News Editor Arik Bachar wrote in popular, pluralist Maariv 
(12/7): "In an uncharacteristic outburst for the No. 1 American 
diplomat, [then Secretary of State James] Baker made public the 
phone number of the White House in 1990 and told the Israelis: 
'Please call when you are serious about the peace process'.... The 
message conveyed in the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group] 
Report is weakness -- American exhaustion in the face of the 
fanatical determination of Islamic extremists chasing the West from 
all sides.  When America is tired of fighting, it is easy to look 
for solutions under the streetlamp, especially if it is in some 
negligible Israeli settlement in Samaria [the northern West Ban]. 
This is easier than understanding that the enemy facing the United 
States will not express his thanks for solving the Palestinian or 
Iraqi problem, and return to his cave.... We can only tell [James 
Baker] that the phone number of the Prime Minister's Office in 
Jerusalem is 02-6705555.  Let him call when he finds a serious 
Palestinian leadership." 
 
III.  "Israel Must Not Pay Price For Iraq Mess" 
 
Zalman Shoval, senior Likud member and former ambassador to the US, 
wrote on page one of the conservative, independent Jerusalem Post 
(12/7): "Though common sense should show that the Palestinian 
problem or the Golan have nothing to do with Iraq -- the combination 
of Arab fears of a Shi'ite Crescent and European attitudes in 
general (as we saw in the recent Spanish-French-Italian initiative) 
and American frustration over Iraq could lead to a situation in 
which, in the absence of real solutions for Iraq, attention will be 
shifted to matters directly affecting us.  Israeli diplomacy, which 
has not been too successful in recent times in making its positions 
clear -- including with the Europeans but also with the victorious 
Democrats in Congress and perhaps even with parts of the 
administration -- must now make a major effort to resist the 
attempts to 'Palestinianize' the situation in Iraq, with Israel 
being asked to pay for it." 
 
IV.  "Bush's Opportunity" 
 
Washington correspondent Orly Azolai wrote in the mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot (12/7): "President Bush's personal and 
political history shows repeatedly that the moment he understands 
that he is about to lose everything, his stubbornness dissolves as 
well and he makes a U-turn.... Bush now has the opportunity of 
showing how much he loves Israel.  This is what Israel's supporters 
on both sides of the political arena in the United States believe. 
If he adopts the Baker-Hamilton document, he will be able to present 
an initiative that will lead to two routes of enmity: against the 
Palestinians and Syria.  Should he decide, however, to throw the 
recommendations away, this would be akin to pointing a gun at his 
temple and pressing the trigger." 
 
¶V.  "An Iranian Victory" 
 
Military correspondent Alex Fishman wrote in Yediot Aharonot (12/7): 
"An analysis of the mood in the Iranian leadership shows that the 
Iranians feel that no effective front is forming against them -- on 
the contrary.  Israeli security establishment officials say that the 
Iranians were pleased to hear the statements that were made by the 
incoming secretary of defense, Robert Gates.  Gates' statements -- 
during a Senate hearing this week -- that the US would use military 
force against Iran only as a last resort, strengthened the sense in 
Iran that they had bought themselves some more time in which they 
could to continue to work on acquiring nuclear weapons without any 
impediment.  And that is precisely what they have been doing, said 
Israeli security officials, at a heightened pace.  The security 
officials said that the current round of American-Iranian 
arm-wrestling ended with an Iranian victory.... As a rule, note 
political officials in Jerusalem, the Iranian influence in the 
region has been on the rise, while the American influence has been 
fighting a rearguard action.  The report that was submitted on 
Wednesday by Baker and Hamilton about a change in American policy in 
the region reflects the process in which the momentum of the 
extremist Shi'ites in the region has gained strength, while the 
'American regional order,' which peaked in 2003, is in decline with 
the entanglement of the American warfare in Iraq.  This process will 
have an impact on all the countries in the region, including Israel, 
say the political officials." 
 
VI.  "Iraq Will Solve Iraq's Problems" 
 
Arab affairs correspondent Zvi Bar'el wrote on page one of Ha'aretz 
(12/7): "Following the excitement stirred by the Baker-Hamilton 
report, because it referred to Iran and Syria as essential partners 
to solving the problem in Iraq, a small question remains: Will these 
two be willing to voluntarily take this role upon themselves? 
Without asking for something in return?  And, can the countries of 
the region, Egypt and Saudi Arabia foremost among them, help Iraq in 
view of the chaos there?.... The solution must be found within Iraq, 
among the various political and ethnic forces that constitute that 
nation." 
 
--------- 
¶2.  Iran: 
--------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: "Now it 
falls to President Bush to reveal whether Gates' thinking reflects 
his own, or whether he is still committed to preventing the world's 
most dangerous regime from obtaining the world's most dangerous 
weapons." 
 
 
 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
"Gates' Shocking Thinking on Iran" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (12/7): 
"[Defense Secretary-nominee Robert] Gates assures us that although 
Ahmadinejad may be wacko, his Iranian leadership higher-ups have got 
to be more responsible.  These moderate, reasonable, Iranian 
leaders, Gates calmly explains, have perfectly understandable 
reasons to want nukes to defend themselves.  Not to worry, it's just 
the Cold War Iranian-style. Israel, the US, and Pakistan have nukes, 
why not Iran?  But what if this sunny analysis is wrong and Iran 
lobs a weapon of mass destruction at Israel?  Well, that's a risk 
that Gates seems willing to take.... Gates has now made the case for 
tolerating an Iranian nuclear weapon and against taking military 
action to prevent that eventuality. In doing so, he elicited no 
discernible alarm from his Senatorial inquisitors.  We wish one of 
them had pointed out that an Iranian nuclear weapon would 
dramatically increase both Tehran's capability to inflict increasing 
damage against US interests and the likelihood of Iran doing just 
that. Now it falls to President Bush to reveal whether Gates' 
thinking reflects his own, or whether he is still committed to 
preventing the world's most dangerous regime from obtaining the 
world's most dangerous weapons." 
 
JONES