VZCZCXYZ0009
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #1286 3561117
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221117Z DEC 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6190
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7278
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7671
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2663

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001286 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CUBA; SAO PAULO 
 
 
"Cubans Awaiting The End Of Fidel's Era" 
 
Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo's reporter Luiz Zanin Oricchio 
reports from Havana (12/22): "Cubans are awaiting with apparent 
serenity the transition that will follow the end of Fidel Castro's 
era.  There is a clear farewell climate in the air.  Even the 
official tone of the newspapers seems to be exaggerated.... The cult 
of personality extends to the television with an overdose of 
video-clips on the revolution and debates on the historical 
importance of the leader.... It is the reaffirmation process of an 
already built image, aimed at reinforcing social cohesion for a 
transition that the regime intends to carry out without any risk.... 
There is no credible news on Fidel's health.... The media prepares a 
farewell and at the same time reaffirms that he continues alive and 
alert.... No one believes that Fidel will reassume the post 
completely. People believe that he may survive, but this is all. 
Transition is inescapable and everyone is aware of that.  There is a 
general sensation of farewell involving the nation.... There are 
those who believe that the transition will be quick and radical, as 
the Cuban exile community in Miami wishes.  But there are also those 
who think that it will be slow and gradual, but inexorable towards 
capitalism and democracy. And there are some who believe that the 
transition is already taking place, as is the case of British 
historian Richard Gott, who says in his recent book that while 
superficial conservatives believe that Cuba is a gerontocracy, the 
decision making power has actually been transferred to talented 
young politicians such as Carlos Lage Dvila, secretary of the 
Executive Committee of the Ministerial Council, and Ricardo Alarcon 
de Quesada, president of the National Assembly. Raul Castro heads 
the Army and Fidel is now a sick and aged chief of state who 
symbolizes the revolutionary achievements.  When he dies, everything 
will allow an already outlined course." 
Wolfe