VZCZCXYZ0004
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #1248 3451221
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111221Z DEC 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6139
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7228
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7649
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2650

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001248 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ STUDY GROUP REPORT; WESTERN 
HEMISPHERE: PINOCHET'S DEATH; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "Exit Door" 
 
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo 
editorialized (12/10): "The Iraq Study Group report clearly says 
that the situation is bad and that there is not much one can do to 
improve it.... The document is an opportunity for the White House to 
change the focus of its policy and prepare the withdrawal, a 
graceful exit, as the US media says. The question is to know whether 
President Bush will grab it. So far, indications have been 
ambiguous. Bush continues to say that the US will remain in Iraq 
'until the victory' - something that the report discards as a 
feasible goal - but he has already removed the Secretary of Defense 
who planned the invasion, and replaced him with Robert Gates, who 
has a very critical view of the situation. Bush maintains that he 
will not negotiate with Iran or Syria directly, but has already 
authorized Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki to call a regional 
peace conference, an event that would put Washington in contact with 
Tehran and Damascus. Everything indicates that without admitting 
that the Iraqi adventure was a disaster, Bush is willing to adopt a 
damage reduction policy. It is possible, however, that it is too 
late for Iraq. The invasion launched Iraq into a civil war that is 
expected to prolong for years. If the US troops leave Iraq in a 
hurry it is possible that the nation will fragment into smaller 
states. The only certainty is that the intervention, whose only goal 
was to democratize and pacify the Middle East, has become another 
focus of tensions and terror." 
 
¶2. "Bush's Chance To Save Face" 
 
The lead editorial in cener-right national circulation daily O 
Estado de S. Paulo (12/8) underscored:  The Iraq Study Group report 
giver President Bush everything he could hope for if he has a spark 
of common sense: bipartisan  political support to terminate his 
[Iraqi] adventure before leaving the White House in January 2009. 
The report is highly realistic: it does not see any possibility of a 
proud US withdrawal or  civilized Ira after that, in addition to 
condemning the conduction of the post war period. It recognizes that 
there is no hypothesis for Washington to win by the force the 
insurrection against the occupation.... The Group supports the 
participation of both Iran and Syria in the process, and goes deep 
into the problem by indicating that without fostering peace between 
Israelis and Palestinians, involving Syrians and Lebanese, nothing 
good will happen in the Middle East.  The report does not leave room 
for misunderstandings. Its intention is to pave the way to prevent 
the worst - a bloodshed tending to spread as result of an 
intervention, in opposite fields, of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and 
possibly Turkey, thereby inexorably involving the 140,000 US troops 
who are already cornered and disoriented midst the chaos (already 
longer that the US involvement in the WWII).... But Bush's initial 
reaction to the document was only tepid.... Actually, Bush does not 
need to surrender.  It will be sufficient just by continuing saying 
the wrong things, and allowing the right thing to be done that he 
can save  face." 
 
¶3. "Two Pinochet periods - One Alive, Another Dead" 
 
Political columnist Clovis Rossi wrote in liberal, largest national 
circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (12/11): "Pinochet, synonymous 
with human rights violations and disrespect to public liberties and 
civil rights, has fortunately disappeared from Latin America.  The 
fact that Pinochet died in the same month that concluded a 
successful electoral cycle in the region - the civilized way of 
resolving political or ideological differences - is a pleasant 
coincidence.  It is true that in the recent series of elections, 
voters elected in some cases caudillo candidates such as Venezuelan 
Hugo Chvez and Bolivian Evo Morales. But regardless of totalitarian 
temptations, the fact is that there are no political prisoners in 
Venezuela or Bolivia, the media is free, the political parties are 
working regularly, the elections were considered free and fair by 
foreign observers - everything contrary to what happened in 
Pinochet's Chile." 
Wolfe