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UNCLAS QUITO 002937 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION WRAP-UP:  CORREA COMPLIMENTS BUSH; 
CABINET CHOICES; POLITICAL REFORM DEBATE 
 
REF: A. QUITO 2904 
 
     ¶B. QUITO 2455 
     ¶C. QUITO 2699 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Final certified results of the election 
are now expected by December 4, confirming a 57-43% 
presidential victory by Rafael Correa over Alvaro Noboa. 
Presumptive president-elect Correa received a congratulatory 
phone call from President Bush on November 30.  Correa 
subsequently publicly praised President Bush for his "class" 
in making the call.  Noboa has refused to comment publicly on 
the results until final.  Meanwhile, speculation is rampant 
over Correa's possible Cabinet picks, and public debate of 
his controversial Constituent Assembly proposal has already 
begun.  Signaling openness to dialogue, Correa has pledged 
not to dissolve the incoming Congress.  End Summary. 
 
Pres. Bush Call Very Well Received 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Immediately following President Bush's phone call to 
Rafael Correa on November 30, the Correa team put out a press 
release reporting that it took place.  Correa subsequently 
commented publicly that said President Bush had demonstrated 
his "classiness" in making the call despite Correa having 
made a well-publicized disparaging joke about the President 
during the campaign.  The call was reported prominently by 
national media, and was generally characterized as a very 
positive signal from the USG, building on earlier positive 
signals from the Department and the Ambassador's 
congratulatory call. 
 
Results Almost Final 
-------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) With 99.81 percent of the votes counted, Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal (TSE) President Xavier Cazar is now saying 
the final results will be announced on December 4.  Results 
have been stuck at 99% since November 29, with the overseas 
vote count delaying the process.  Once the TSE finally 
finishes the count, candidates will have two days to register 
appeals or complaints about the process and the TSE has up to 
seven days to resolve them.  The votes remaining to be 
counted will not change the outcome of 56.67% for Rafael 
Correa, 43.33% for Alvaro Noboa.  Noboa won only the three 
coastal provinces of Guayas, Manabi and Esmeraldas. 
 
 
Noboa Silent 
------------ 
 
¶4.  (U) Noboa has still not spoken publicly about the 
election results since November 27, when he hinted at 
"conditions of fraud" (Ref A) and said he would not 
acknowledge any election result until the TSE finished its 
official vote count.  Noboa met with all 28 newly-elected 
PRIAN congressional deputies on November 30, but no decisions 
were announced after the meeting about the elections, or 
PRIAN choices for President of Congress and congressional 
delegation chief, and a position on the presidential 
elections. 
 
Correa Re-Affirms Cabinet Choices 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The night of the election, Correa reaffirmed 
several of his earlier-announced Cabinet choices, including 
Ricardo Patino as Economy and Finance Minister; Alberto 
Acosta as Energy and Mines Minister; Janeth Sanchez as 
Secretary for Social Welfare; Gustavo Larrea as Minister of 
 
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Government; and Carlos Pareja as President of Petroecuador. 
The following biographic information supplements that 
reported in Ref B. 
 
--Originally from Guayaquil, Ricardo Patino met his wife 
while they both worked with labor and women's groups.  His 
wife, Miriam Alcivar, is the executive director of the 
Ecuadorian Center for the Promotion and Action of Women in 
Guayaquil.  Patino enlisted support for Correa's candidacy 
from ex-members of "Alfaro Vive y Carajo."  He is also one of 
the so-called "forajidos" who demonstrated to overthrow the 
Gutierrez government.  Patino is expected to take the lead in 
debt repayment restructuring, and created "Jubilee 2000," a 
 
Guayaquil-based group promoting forgiveness of Ecuador's 
foreign debt.  He was formerly a Socialist Party member. 
 
--Alberto Acosta, 58, was born in Quito to a well-off banking 
family.  In the 1980's he worked at Petroecuador's 
predecessor, the Ecuadorian State Petroleum Corporation.  In 
1995, he was sentenced to two years in prison after accusing 
financial entities of illegalities, later receiving a 
suspended sentence.  He has worked as an independent 
consultant and in recent years became known as a political 
activist and authored several books on economic issues and 
published articles critical of neo-liberalism.  He currently 
works at the Latin-American Institute of Social 
Investigation. 
 
--Gustavo Larrea is a leftist intellectual and human rights 
activist.  In contrast to his Marxist past, he has recently 
talked about the need for Ecuador to join the global economy. 
 He was at the forefront of demonstrations to remove from 
power former president Lucio Gutierrez.  During the campaign, 
Larrea served as campaign manager and head of Correa's 
political committee, charged with setting campaign policy. 
He has been charged by president-elect Correa to conduct a 
dialogue on political reform with political parties. 
 
Other Possible Correa Cabinet Choices 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In the wake of the election, speculation is rampant 
about other possible Correa Cabinet choices.  Left-leaning 
academic Beatriz Sanchez, a specialist in security affairs 
teaching at FLACSO university in Quito, appears to be the 
front-runner for Defense Minister.  Homero Rendon, Correa's 
personal secretary, is likely to continue in that capacity. 
Maria Sol Corral and Juan Carlos Toledo, who managed Correa's 
image and communications during the campaign, are reported to 
be the favorites for the Spokesperson and Communication 
Secretary portfolios, respectively.  Correa advisor Fander 
 
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Falconi is rumored to be named Minister of Environment. 
Correa has reaffirmed a campaign promise to form a new 
Ministry of Transportation, but has not named anyone 
preferred to lead the new ministry.  Biographic information 
on three other rumored cabinet choices follows. 
 
--Enrique Ayala Mora is rumored to be Correa's choice for 
Foreign Minster, among others.  Hailing from Imbabura 
province, Ayala Mora is the leader of the Socialist Party and 
rector of Universidad Andina Simon Bolivar. In contacts with 
the Embassy he has come across as moderate and knowledgeable 
about the U.S., and has advocated more study of the U.S. in 
local university curricula.  In addition to Ayala Mora, 
Javier Ponce Leiva, the architect of Ecuador's foreign policy 
whitepaper (Ref C), told the DCM on November 29 that he 
expected to be named to the same post.  There was also some 
speculation that FM Francisco Carrion would stay on in his 
position under Correa. 
 
--Carlos Vallejo Lopez is rumored to have Correa's support 
for the post of Minister of Agriculture.  Vallejo served as 
Minister of Agriculture under President Hurtado ('81-83).  As 
a member of the ruling Popular Democracy party he served as 
President of Congress in 1992.  He served in the 2002-2006 
Congress as a member of Congress for Noboa's PRIAN, before 
resigning from office in the wake of the Gutierrez overthrow 
and later joining the Correa campaign.  Vallejo, 67, is a 
native of Riobamba, Chimborazo province. 
 
--Mauricio Davalos is rumored to be Correa's choice for Trade 
Minister.  Davalos, 52, is an economist and attorney, and 
like Vallejo, originally hails from Riobamba.  He was served 
as Agriculture Minister under president Gustavo Noboa.  A 
member of and vice president of the centrist Popular 
Democracy (DP, now UDC) party, Davalos served as a member of 
the National Constitutional Assembly from 1997-98.  He also 
served as Minister of Natural Resources and Energy in 1979, 
under President Roldos; as General Manager of Ecuador's 
Central Bank (1979-81); as Governor of the IMF; and as 
President of the Ecuadorian Flower Exporter Federation 
(1990-94).  Davalos is a longtime member of the CORDES think 
tank, headed by ex-president Oswaldo Hurtado, since 1986. 
Davalos holds an economics degree from Catholic University in 
Quito and a Master's degree from Vanderbilt University in 
Nashville, Tennessee.  He has taught economics at Catholic 
University in Quito and at New Mexico University. 
 
Political Reform Debate Begins 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Since taking office Correa has signaled some 
openness to dialogue, if not compromise, on his controversial 
political reform proposal.  He has directed Gustavo Larrea to 
initiate dialogue with political parties on the new 
government's proposed referendum on whether to hold an 
unbounded Constituent Assembly.   Correa has also affirmed 
that creation of a Constituent Assembly would not 
automatically dissolve Congress; both institutions would 
function simultaneously, with the Assembly rewriting the 
constitution while the Congress limited itself to its 
"oversight" role. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Correa asserts authority under article 104 (2) of 
the constitution, which permits the President to convoke a 
referendum when "in his opinion, it deals with issues of 
transcendental importance for the country, different from 
those in the previous clause."  (Note:  the previous clause, 
104 (1) mandates that any referendum containing changes to 
the constitution be previously approved by Congress, leading 
opponents to conclude that a referendum to authorize an 
Assembly to rewrite the constitution must first be approved 
by Congress, which Correa refutes.  End Note.) 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Correa maintains that on taking office he would 
order electoral authorities by decree to organize the 
referendum consisting of a single question, along the lines 
of "do you approve a constituent assembly to be constituted 
under the following rules."  The Assembly would not have a 
time limit to complete its work, would be composed of 130 
directly-elected representatives, including 24 national 
representatives, six representatives of Ecuadorian migrants 
overseas, and 100 representatives elected under existing 
election rules for Congress, by province.  To run for the 
Assembly, individuals would be required to gather signatures 
from 0.5% of the national electorate.  All Assembly members 
would receive government funding for publicity, and would be 
individually elected;  no voting by party list or 
proportional representation schemes would be employed, 
leading, according to Correa, to election of "the most 
capable, not those with the most resources, or through party 
lists...totally different from the Congress." 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Thus far, Pachakutik, the far-left Movement for 
Popular Democracy (MPD), and the Socialist Party have openly 
supported Correa's referendum/Assembly proposal.  Other 
parties are more equivocal, but apparently leaning toward 
support, including the Democratic Left Party, Leon Roldos' 
RED movement, and Abdala Bucaram's PRE.  Together, these 
parties hold 38 of 100 seats in Congress. Lucio Gutierrez' 
Patriotic Society Party has signaled an openness to dialog on 
the idea, and will probably be the key swing element. Noboa's 
PRIAN bloc and the PSC are expected to oppose the proposal. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) President Bush's congratulatory call was clearly 
welcomed by Correa as a signal of USG respect for the 
democratic process here.  The Ambassador explored with Correa 
areas of cooperative bilateral relations in further detail in 
a meeting late on December 1  (SepTel).  Once the TSE 
announces final election results, Noboa may lodge procedural 
challenges, which are unlikely to change results in the face 
of Correa's large margin of victory.  The debate over 
Correa's Constituent Assembly proposal will continue up to 
and past inauguration day on January 15, 2007.  While 
Correa's openness to dialogue is positive, he is showing few 
signs thus far of willingness to compromise to the extent 
necessary to attract majority support and prevent a conflict 
with the new Congress. 
JEWELL