VZCZCXRO4309
RR RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHFR #7898/01 3561108
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221108Z DEC 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3939
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHMRE/AMCONSUL MARSEILLE 1478
RUEHSR/AMCONSUL STRASBOURG 0285

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 007898 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/WE, INR, R 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC PREL KPAO FR
SUBJECT:  WEEKLY MEDIA WRAP-UP: HAMAS ON THE BRINK OF CIVIL WAR; LE 
PEN AND THE NATIONAL FRONT; IRAN PLAYING THE EURO AGAINST THE 
DOLLAR. DECEMBER 22, 2006. 
 
 
PARIS 00007898  001.4 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The threat of civil war in Gaza and Palestinian President 
Abbas's proposal for new elections led to speculation about the 
Middle East as a spawning ground for civil strife.  France's 
National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen received widespread 
attention in the context of an alleged "softer" policy line.  As 
Iran demanded that its exports be purchased in euros, commentators 
tried to shed light on Iran's motivations.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
HAMAS:  CIVIL WAR IN THE MAKING IN GAZA 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Editorialist Pierre Haski contended in left-wing Liberation 
that the "injured and the dead in Gaza were the symbols of what was 
turning out to be a civil war that would spare no one."  Haski 
argued that Mahmoud Abbas's plan for anticipated elections "served 
to trigger new violence" and that "the reigning confusion could not 
help guarantee free and fair elections."  Haski concluded that 
"Abbas's 'diktat' was probably one last attempt to bluff Hamas into 
yielding."  But Haski also warned that "if Abbas's argument does not 
work, the only way to separate the two rival currents, Hamas and 
Fatah, will be with weapons."  Haski called for help from the 
international community "to stop a civil war, the most serious of 
the many threats the Palestinians have had to endure in the past 
forty years."  In Catholic La Croix, Dominique Quinio argued that 
"the fratricidal war raging between Hamas and Fatah confines the 
Palestinians to a dead-end situation."  For Patrice Chabanet in 
regional Le Journal de la Haute Marne, "the renewed cycle of 
violence in Gaza is proof that once again the international 
community is incapable of bringing peace to the region, with a 
powerless Europe watching and America too preoccupied with Iraq." 
 
¶3. (SBU) In regional La Montagne, Alexandre Morel argued that "more 
than a risk for world peace, the Middle East is today a cauldron of 
endless civil wars which turned the myth of an Arab nation into an 
illusion."  In regional Sud Ouest, Patrick Berthomeau decried the 
widespread notion that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was "the 
cause of all confrontation in the Middle East."  Instead Berthomeau 
pointed to "sectarian confrontation" in the Arab-Muslim world as 
"generating local wars" and triggering "new and unpredictable 
alliances with unforeseeable consequences for regional stability." 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
A KINDER, GENTLER LE PEN FOR THE ELECTION YEAR?? 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Left-wing Liberation proclaimed that "despite attempts by 
his daughter to portray Jean-Marie Le Pen in a softer light, he has 
not changed."  But in right-of-center weekly Le Point, Christophe 
Ono-dit-Biot concluded that "Marine Le Pen, the National Front 
Party's campaign strategy manager, is close to winning her wager and 
normalizing the image of the party."  In popular right-of-center 
France Soir, Maud Guillaumin asserted that "more than just a mere 
change, the National Front has undergone a 'mutation.'"  Left-wing 
Liberation insisted that the National Front was simply "revamping 
old stuff," and that Jean-Marie Le Pen wanted to "position himself 
at the center of the political spectrum, without giving up on his 
basic anti-Semitism."  Editorialist Jean-Michel Thenard commented in 
left-wing Liberation on Le Pen's "gentrification" and on Le Pen's 
"new, cautious and non-provocative anti-Semitic stance."  Thenard 
warned, however, that "behind the face-lift" orchestrated by his 
daughter, "Le Pen's extremism remains unchanged" and warned about 
the dangers of "turning Le Pen into a household word" in a landscape 
where Sarkozy "shifted to the right and Le Pen to the center." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Left-leaning television personality Serge Moati of France 5 
TV recently devoted his talk show "Ripostes" to Le Pen.  Soon 
thereafter, Le Pen's Internet site claimed that the show's audience 
rating had doubled, thanks to Le Pen's performance.  Other 
commentators criticized Moati for having conducted the interview 
"with empathy" and for having avoided controversial questions about 
Le Pen's previous comments about the Holocaust having been "a detail 
of history."  In an interview in right-of-center Le Point, Moati 
argued that "previous attempts to demonize Le Pen had failed to stem 
the phenomenon," and concluded: "We either outlaw the movement or we 
don't.  If we don't, then we have a democratic obligation to 
interview Le Pen."  Moati agreed that "Le Pen's ideas were 
dangerous," but insisted that "closing one's eyes to French reality 
was also dangerous." 
 
PARIS 00007898  002.5 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) A poll conducted for left-of-center Le Monde on December 15 
indicated that "more people are adhering to Le Pen's ideas" and that 
his daughter had succeeded in "un-demonizing" Le Pen.  Left-wing 
Liberation asked whether "more people in France are rallying Le 
Pen's camp because they agree with him and the National Front or 
because he has been sweeping his provocations under the carpet," and 
warned against "making too much of the 'Le Pen effect.'"  Christophe 
Forcari, in his analysis in left-wing Liberation, explained that 
voter intentions, "which was what counts," was lower, "between 10 
and 11 percent" although "growing steadily."  But Forcari also 
warned that Le Pen could "definitely" find himself in the run-off. 
Despite this projection, Guillaume Tabard predicted in 
right-of-center Le Figaro that, contrary to what happened five years 
ago, "Sarkozy and Royal had more to fear from a first round without 
Le Pen than from a threat of the National Front being present in the 
run off." 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
IRAN AND THE POLITICS OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶7. (SBU) On Monday Le Figaro Economie led with Iran's threat "to end 
its dependence on the dollar."  Delphine Minoui argued that while 
"this threat could be interpreted as a response to U.S. pressures, 
other countries are also looking to reduce their dependence on the 
dollar," among them Russia and China.  La Tribune concurred in its 
editorial that "the real danger for the U.S. currency lies in others 
following suit behind Iran, not for reasons of anti-Americanism, but 
because of real economic concerns."  In right-of-center weekly 
magazine Le Point, Mireille Duteil analyzed Ahmadinejad's recent 
posturing towards Israel and the U.S. and concluded that "by 
opposing the U.S., Ahmadinejad hoped to rally support from a world 
supposedly tired of America's superpower.  His decision on December 
18 to get Iran's oil exports paid in euros fits this logic.  While 
the fall of the dollar could explain such a move, the fact is that 
Iran already sells 57 percent of its oil in euros."  Duteil 
concluded that "Ahmadinejad's decision was a political response to 
Washington, which has been pressuring American banks, but also Arab 
banks in the Gulf, to refuse loans to Iran and Iranian businesses." 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) In left-wing Liberation, Laurent Mauriac interviewed 
American financial analyst Michael Malpede who argued that "the idea 
initiated by Tehran could be the beginning of a new worldwide trend 
among OPEC nations."  Malpede was also quoted as saying that, in his 
view, "the announcement was not triggered by political reasons." 
But he also warned that for OPEC nations "such a move would be like 
shooting themselves in the foot."  Malpede nevertheless concluded 
that the shift away from dollars "could be gradual." 
HOFMANN