VZCZCXRO7833
RR RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHNJ #1431 3521409
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181409Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4702
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 001431 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CD PGOV PHUM PREL SU
SUBJECT: CHADIAN OPPOSITION LEADER FLOATS IDEAS FOR DIALOGUE 
 
REF: A. A) N'DJAMENA 989 
 
     ¶B. B) N'DJAMENA 487 
     ¶C. C) PARIS 5106 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Southern Muslim opposition leader Saleh 
Kebzabo told Ambassador that he is floating ideas with 
President Deby, the French and leaders of Chad,s political 
and armed opposition for a dialogue that could lead to 
comprehensive internal and regional peace.  More flexible 
than the proposal proffered by the opposition in July, the 
approach would not require President Deby to relinquish 
executive authority.  Kebzabo said that his ideas are 
resonating among GOC, rebel and opposition leaders and that 
recent Chadian military successes increase the prospect of 
President Deby agreeing to meaningful dialogue.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Ambassador met December 13 with southern Muslim 
leader, Saleh Kebzabo, Chairman of the opposition National 
Union for Development and Renewal (UNDR) and member of the 
CPDC (Coordination of the Political Parties for the Defense 
of the Constitution), a coalition of some twenty legal 
opposition parties that boycotted the May 2006 elections. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) A supporter of Deby during his first term, when he 
served as foreign minister (1996-97) and subsequently held 
the public works/transportation and then mines/energy/oil 
portfolios, Kebzabo is currently an opposition party leader 
and member of parliament.  He told the ambassador December 13 
that he, along with fellow opposition leader Jean Alingue 
(URD), is currently floating ideas with Deby, the French and 
leaders of the political and armed opposition for an 
&approach8 that could achieve comprehensive peace.  He 
described a proposal that would include bordering countries 
and a supervisory role for the EU and/or other credible 
international players in a dialogue designed to address both 
the internal and regional dynamics of conflict. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Kebzabo said that were the dialogue to lead to 
political transparency and fair legislative elections in 
2008, President Deby could complete his third term and in 
fact run for a fourth term as long as the playing field was 
leveled. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Kebzabo insisted that the initiative was purely his 
and Alingue,s )- not a &CPDC thing8 -- and that their 
ideas were resonating among the key players they were 
cultivating.  He argued that Deby would be more likely to 
engage in the process if he were more secure in his own 
position.  In this context, he suggested that if the reported 
recent military successes of the Chadian army in the east 
proved to put the rebels at bay, Deby might be willing to 
engage in meaningful dialogue. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment:  Other CPDC members have complained that 
President Deby is seeking to divide the opposition by 
engaging prominent CPDC members individually.  Kebzabo,s 
thinking certainly appears to be more flexible with regard to 
President Deby,s role in a peaceful transition than the 
approach proffered by the CPDC last July (Ref. A), which 
called as conditions for dialogue a significant reduction of 
executive authority and explicit presidential acknowledgment 
of a crisis requiring wide-ranging political, economic and 
social reform.  Kebzabo is ahead of his colleagues in the 
political opposition in his efforts at exploring a path to 
democratic reform.  The problem now is that, with violent 
combat still raging in eastern Chad, neither President Deby 
nor his armed opponents appear open to this initiative. 
WALL