VZCZCXRO9531
RR RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHNJ #1404/01 3412010
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 072010Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4670
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1265
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 0153
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 1430
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0882
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0937

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001404 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS, ROME FOR UN MISSION 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV SU CD
SUBJECT: UN DRAWDOWN IN EASTERN CHAD 
 
 
NDJAMENA 00001404  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. The UN convoked donors and UN agencies to 
describe the deteriorating security situation in eastern Chad 
and steps the UN has taken to protect staff and ensure the 
delivery of essential services.  Refugee camps in northern 
Chad are essentially being run by refugee committees with 
intermittent visits from UN staff. The 90,000  Internally 
Displaced Persons (IDPs), less able to run on "auto-pilot," 
require presence of UN and NGO workers to deliver essential 
services. It is estimated that under current circumstances 
food, fuel and water will be available for about two months. 
After moving out non-essential staff, the UN reports that 
approximately 300 staff (including NGO partners) would need 
to leave in the event of a full evacuation.  UNHCR Director 
stressed that "no one has been abandoned;" while they 
recognize the vulnerability of the refugee camps, so far the 
food and fuel at the camps has not been the target of rebels 
or other marauders and essential services continue.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2. (U)  The UNDP Resident Representative and the Head of UN 
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) briefed donors and 
representatives of other UN agencies on December 7 concerning 
the deteriorating situation in eastern Chad and the steps 
which the UN has taken to protect safe and safeguard 
essential services for refugees and IDPs. 
 
UNSTABLE AND VOLATILE 
--------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) UN Security Officer Idriss Mbaye described the 
current "unstable and volatile" security situation in eastern 
Chad where an accelerating deterioration in security has 
taken place since the end of November 2006. He recalled the 
taking of Abeche for 24 hours by the rebel group UFDD, the 
subsequent looting of UN property and humanitarian goods and 
further tentative movements of Chad rebels towards Ati and 
Moussoro  On December 1 rebels attacked Guereda and then 
retreated to the border town of Koulbous.  In Guereda, armed 
men forced their way into the UN compound, threatened staff 
at gunpoint, and stole two vehicles.  Presently, according to 
Mbaye, the UN believed that Am Zoer was under the control of 
the UFDD and that Biltine had been retaken by the UFDD as 
well.  Mbaye noted that on the Sudan side of the border, both 
Koulbous and Al Fasher were currently experiencing extreme 
instability.  Movement of troops and locals indicated that 
there may be some activity in the Goz Beida area.  And 
finally, there was a concern that Central African Republic 
(CAR) rebels might infiltrate into Chad.  Mbaye commented 
that UFDD and RAFD appeared to be working together; it was 
clear that the ultimate goal was N'djamena. 
 
¶4. (U) UNDP Resident Representative Kingsley Amaning repeated 
that the situation had deteriorated rapidly.  In an interview 
with President Deby, the President had told him that the 
rebels had between 5,000 - 6,000 men, and 400-500 vehicles. 
According to Amaning, the rebels were here to stay -- they 
were not returning to Sudan. The UN, NGOs, Chadian army, 
Chadian rebels, Sudanese rebels and Chadian IDB were now all 
occupying the same perilous zone.  Amaning thanked the 
Embassy of France for permitting UN and NGO partners to stay 
in the French base during the last attack on Abeche.  He 
explained that the UN intended to continue working, but 
sought to minimize the exposure of UN staff and assets. 
Accordingly, the UN had moved to level IV security in the 
East, and level III security in N'djamena. 
 
REFUGEE COMMITTEES IN CHARGE 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) UNHCR Director Serge Male explained that UNHCR was 
drawing down to essential staff so as to reduce its footprint 
in the event of a full evacuation.  He noted that some 250 UN 
and NGO workers had been trapped in Guereda during the recent 
fighting December 1, and the aim was to avoid a similar 
situation. But no one will be abandoned.  The UN will focus 
on the essential activities, which are protection, food, 
water and sanitation.  As Guereda, Iriba and Bahai were 
deemed the most vulnerable security-wise, UNHCR is leaving a 
skeleton staff and has instructed partners to focus on the 
essential sectors only.  Core staff from Abeche were flying 
out for 24-hour visits to provide support, but essentially 
refugee committees were running the camps -- including food 
and fuel distribution.   Male commented that the December 4 
food distribution had been performed successfully.  WFP 
 
NDJAMENA 00001404  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Representative Bamezon stated that there were stocks in 
transit to guarantee sufficient food for the camps for 
January.  Libyan truckers were continuing to bring food down 
through Libya for the time being. However, WFP, which lost 
some 489 metric tons of looted commodities in Abeche 
(destined for school feeding), has suspended its development 
activities in eastern Chad and canceled or postponed all 
non-essential field missions. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Concerning President Deby's message on the need to 
move the refugee camps, Male explained that the UN agreed in 
theory.  However, suitable sites still needed to be found; 
the refugees would need to accept such a move, and the move 
would need to be financed. 
 
IDPs -- GROWING - AND VULNERABLE 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U)   Male explained that while the camps were, to a 
certain extent, able to operate on "auto-pilot", IDPs were 
not, and therefore they had kept some UN/NGO partners with 
the IDP groups. IDPs now numbered 90,000 according to Male 
and donors would be receiving a new appeal before Christmas 
for their support.  Male called the population in the east 
bitter and demoralized.  Dadjos were particularly targeted. 
The UN was being told by locals that Arabs have come asking 
them to join in raids of their neighbors.  They refuse, but 
are then the victims of raids themselves.  UNHCR reports 
continue to chronicle Arab militia attacks on small village 
in Dar Silla, leaving scores dead and forcing hundreds to 
flee -- mostly to the Goz Beida area.  UNDP Res Rep Amaning 
noted that it appeared to be more than coincidence that rebel 
attacks were often preceded by Arab militia raids.  Amaning 
also noted that the UN had not eliminated the possibility of 
negotiating with whoever is there to ensure access to 
humanitarian space. 
 
INTERNATIONAL FORCE 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) In response to the Ambassador's question on an 
international force on the border, Amaning responded that 
they did not know what kind of force it would be.  Would it 
be dissuasive only?  Would it interpose itself between 
warring sides? He emphasized that any force needed to be 
perceived by all sides as neutral.  It also needed to be 
strong, and be able to guarantee humanitarian space.  The 
African Union Ambassador asked if it was envisioned placing 
this force without the political support of all parties (i.e. 
Sudan)?  Amaning responded that Sudan had already said that 
it did not want a force next door; but if the UN agreed, and 
Chad accepted, then it could be placed regardless of Sudan's 
position.  But of course, he added, it was preferable to have 
unanimity on the question. 
 
¶8.  (U) Commenting on the deteriorating political situation, 
and the perspective of donors, the French Embassy Deputy 
commented that if Sudan continued to support the rebels, the 
situation would continue.  If Sudan ceased to support the 
rebels, the situation would not continue. 
 
UN CONTINGENCY PLANNING 
---------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Both the UN and WFP have established alternate command 
centers in Cameroon, and reported that they would be able to 
use UN planes currently operating in Sudan if the situation 
took a turn for the worse and widespread evacuation was 
necessary. 41 international staff are left in Abeche, 90 in 
N'djamena.  Humanitarian NGO partners in the region number 
¶140.  In the event of a full evacuation, the UN would be 
taking about approximately 300 staff members. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The UN considers that the most likely scenario is 
far more attacks by rebel groups inside the country leading 
to a breakdown in government control and increased 
insecurity.  They are planning accordingly. 
 
¶11. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. 
WALL