VZCZCXRO8821
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #5299/01 3531319
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191319Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6075
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 005299 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KLUU, GGOTTLIEB, AFERRARA, ACONVERY, 
CGOTTSCHALK, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR WHAMMINK, JDWORKEN 
USAID/AFR/EA FOR JBORNS 
STATE FOR AF/E AND PRM 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID SOCI PREF PREL SO
SUBJECT:  USG HUMANITARIAN PLANNING FOR SOMALIA 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. Fears of conflict between the Transitional Federal 
Government of Somalia and the Islamic Courts are 
growing.  USG and other humanitarian organizations are 
working together on contingency planning efforts.  These 
include developing scenarios (based on the assumption 
that non-combatants will be forced to flee, either 
within Somalia or to neighboring countries) and 
identifying organizations and resources to manage 
possible outcomes.  USAID and PRM continue to follow 
humanitarian events in Somalia very closely from Addis 
Ababa and Nairobi.  If conflict does break out and 
spread, substantial new humanitarian resources will be 
needed for affected Somalis.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
 
¶2.  The humanitarian community working on Somalia is 
concerned that tension between the Transitional Federal 
Government of Somalia (TFG) and the Council of Islamic 
Courts (CIC) could break into open warfare at any time 
and negatively impact a population already affected by 
years of conflict, drought, and flooding. 
 
¶3.  It is feared that if warfare breaks out between the 
two parties and their allies, large numbers of Somalis 
will be displaced (or further displaced) from their 
homes and livelihoods, and require substantial 
humanitarian assistance.  Most observers believe that 
any major fighting will start in the Bay region where 
the TFG is based, and generate substantial population 
movements both within Somalia and across international 
borders into Kenya and Ethiopia.  Once started, it is 
feared that the conflict may degenerate into a broader 
and bloodier war between the CIC and the Ethiopians. 
 
¶4.  We share these concerns, and have undertaken 
contingency planning of our own, while monitoring that 
of United Nations (UN) and other humanitarian agencies. 
 The Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees and 
Migration (PRM) and USAID/DCHA's Offices of Foreign 
Disaster Assistance (OFDA) and Food for Peace (FFP) in 
Nairobi and Addis Ababa are closely following events in 
Somalia, and provided the information below. 
 
¶5.  Note:  The humanitarian community working on Somalia 
has been largely based in Nairobi since the early 1990s 
due to insecurity in Somalia.  A substantial humanitarian 
infrastructure has been built up in Nairobi over the last 
15 year, which includes coordination mechanisms, think 
tanks, information gathering capacities, logistics 
(storage, shipping, airlift, procurement) and UN and NGO 
Somalia headquarters.  End note. 
 
Conflict in Somalia 
 
¶6.  OFDA and FFP are reviewing and revising the 
USAID/DCHA regional contingency plan for extensive 
conflict in Somalia.  The plan identifies the geographic 
locations for possible conflict between various actors 
in Somalia estimates the number of potentially displaced 
persons, and predicts where they will flee.  Based on 
this information, USAID/DCHA is reviewing humanitarian 
assistance resources needed, and identifying agencies 
with the operational capacity to meet the emergency needs. 
 
¶7.  The UN Office of Coordination of Humanitarian 
Affairs (OCHA) Somalia has outlined contingency plans 
for conflict in Somalia based on its new "cluster" 
system, to identify humanitarian needs, available 
resources and gaps, and potential implementing agencies 
and partners.  The clusters are chaired by designated UN 
agencies and include representatives of international 
organizations and NGOs operational in Somalia.  The main 
clusters are focused on water and sanitation, health and 
nutrition, protection, logistics, and food security. 
 
¶8.  The NGO Consortium of Somalia, made up of 190 
international and local NGOs and headquartered in 
Nairobi, has actively participated in the UNOCHA 
preparedness planning process and provides a wide range 
of logistical, technical and administrative expertise to 
the contingency planning processes; members of the NGO 
 
NAIROBI 00005299  002 OF 002 
 
 
Consortium are the primary implementers of UN programs 
in Somalia. 
 
¶9.  UN agencies had until recently healthy stockpiles of 
drug kits and non-food items (NFI) for Somalia.  However, 
over the last month they have utilized and distributed 
most of these resources in their response to the flooding 
in south central Somalia.  OCHA Somalia launched an appeal 
December 5 to address ongoing flood conditions in Somalia 
and to seek donations to replenish their stockpiles of 
drugs, NFI, and other resources that will be needed in the 
event of large scale conflict in Somalia. 
 
¶10.  OCHA Ethiopia has also drafted a contingency plan, 
based on the cluster system, and has called several 
meetings with USAID, PRM, and UN agencies for ongoing 
contingency planning for a modest influx of refugees and 
possible cross-border operations depending on how the 
potential conflict evolves.  The UN system in Ethiopia 
is less inclined to work with NGOs as implementers of 
their plan, leaving NGOs less involved in the contingency 
planning process than is the case in Nairobi. 
Consequently, USAID/OFDA, more experienced in integrating 
NGOs within its contingency plan, is facilitating a 
preparedness planning process with its NGO partners. 
 
UNHCR and Refugees 
 
¶12.  The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 
(UNHCR) has adjusted its contingency planning scenario 
upward to 200,000 asylum seekers entering Kenya from 
Somalia within a short (three to five month) time 
period.  The revision is based on the increased 
likelihood that large scale hostilities will break out 
in Somalia between the CIC and TFG/Ethiopia.  UNHCR and 
its partners have managed the current influx (37,000 to 
date in 2006), and, while stretched by the unanticipated 
flood response, are resourced and prepared to handle up 
to 40,000 more asylum seekers. 
 
¶13.  However, if large scale fighting occurs and 200,000 
new refugees enter Kenya, a humanitarian disaster for 
both the new arrivals and the host Kenyan population 
could result.  Additional financial and food resources 
will be quickly needed to respond to the health, food, 
and shelter needs of the new refugees and host population. 
 
Food 
 
¶14.  Both USAID-funded food agencies (CARE and the UN 
World Food Program - WFP) have adequate food stocks with 
over 70,000 MTs;  27,000 MTs in Somalia with the 
remainder in Kenya, Djibouti, and Tanzania.  WFP air 
transport in place for the floods could be used for air 
drops to access to areas cut off by floods or conflict. 
Agencies have adapted to the ongoing crises in Somalia 
over the past decade and effectively operate under a 
contingency plan now.  The use of local Somali 
transporters and local NGOs for food distribution - with 
monitoring by CARE and WFP - has so far proven to be a 
resilient method of ensuring continued access to 
beneficiaries despite the many obstacles.  Because both 
agencies utilize Mombassa port for food shipments and 
transit via roads from Kenya to Somalia, they would be 
well placed to respond to increased food needs on the 
Kenya border if a massive refugee influx occurred. 
 
Conclusion 
 
¶15.  USAID and PRM are closely monitoring the situation. 
If warfare breaks out, most likely substantial USG 
humanitarian resources will be required to meet the 
humanitarian needs of affected Somalis. 
 
RANNEBERGER