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UNCLAS NAIROBI 005231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV KCOR KE
SUBJECT: KENYA POLL RESULTS: KIBAKI'S RATING UP, BUT NOT A 
SURE BET FOR 2007 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 5207 
 
     ¶B. NAIROBI 5129 
 
 
This message is Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please handle 
accordingly. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: A recent national opinion poll shows that 
more Kenyans approve of President Kibaki than earlier in the 
year.  However, although Kibaki came out far in front of a 
field of six leading opposition candidates, he did not fare 
as well in head-to-head races, in particular against 
prominent Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya leader Kalonzo 
Musyoka.  Below is a summary of the results of the USAID 
supported International Republican Institute poll.  Due to 
their sensitivity, the head-to-head numbers were not publicly 
released.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) An International Republican Institute (IRI) poll, 
conducted across Kenya from November 3-6, revealed increased 
positive sentiments among Kenyans about the government and 
President Kibaki since June, but also showed that Kibaki's 
strong rating depends on how the opposition is configured. 
After an extended bad patch - November 2005's referendum 
defeat, February's public exposure of massive corruption 
scandals, and the Standard raids in March - the President 
received a boost.  His October 20 Kenyatta day speech was 
very well-received, and the poll, conducted less than two 
weeks later, shows the President's image had improved by 
November.  In June, 46.5% of respondents felt the country was 
moving in the right direction; this number increased to 59.5% 
in November.  Other performance indicators showed a similar 
upswing: government job approval rating was 55.7% in June and 
67.3% in November and the percentage choosing "done well" for 
the government election promises rating increased from 44.7% 
to 57.8% in November. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Although it is widely held that President Kibaki 
stands a good chance of winning the presidency again, the 
poll results show a more nuanced calculus among voters.  When 
asked to choose between Kibaki and a slate of six leading 
opposition candidates, 41.6% of respondents chose Kibaki as 
their preferred presidential candidate (compared to 30.7% in 
June).  The next nearest candidate (in both June and 
November) was Kalonzo Musyoka with 20.2% (down from 24.4% in 
June).  However, when Kenyans were asked if the election were 
held today (in November) and the choice was between Kibaki 
and another candidate, the President still fares well against 
all candidates but one: opposition front-runner and Orange 
Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K) leader Kalonzo Musyoka.  In 
the November survey, 49.7% percent of Kenyans selected 
Musyoka compared to 48.2% for Kibaki (Note: the head-to-head 
results were not publicly released per IRI policy.  END 
NOTE.) 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Parliament's approval rating also grew from 39.6% 
in June to 49.3% in November.  When asked about their own 
MPs' performance, however, respondents did not report 
progress.  The number approving was virtually the same over 
the period: 43.9% and 44.2%.  Also unchanged was Kenyans' 
plans not to send their MPs to Nairobi again: less than 40% 
think their MP deserves to be re-elected.  Although 
respondents had strong views on corruption (only half thought 
the government was committed to fighting it, unchanged from 
June) fewer than 10 percent cited it as the most important 
issue in Kenya (also unchanged from June).  Creating 
employment and poverty reduction were chosen as the top two 
issues. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT: The head-to-head results reveal the 
difference in voters' minds between Kibaki facing a united 
opposition behind a single contender, and a field of 
candidates -- if the elections were held today.  There is 
nearly a year to go, however, before the general election, 
and a few missteps by either side can make a great deal of 
difference.  Since the poll was conducted, the government has 
been accused of monkeying with Kenya's political parties 
(reftels) - an unpalatable throw back to the old days for 
many Kenyans which may again hurt Kibaki's image.  IRI, which 
has a credible polling track record in Kenya, is scheduled to 
conduct its next survey in February 2007.  END COMMENT. 
RANNEBERGER