VZCZCXRO1461
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #4954/01 3450955
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 110955Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4226
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDRUSPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004954 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER RP
SUBJECT: STRIKE TWO FOR CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE 
 
REF: MANILA 4502 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: As opponents, including the Catholic 
Bishops' Conference, planned rallies and protests against 
transforming the lower House of Congress into a constituent 
assembly to amend the Constitution, House Speaker Jose de 
Venecia on December 9 instead called on the Senate to support 
a constitutional convention.  Planning for the May 2007 
national elections will proceed as planned, with the only 
outstanding issue whether or not simultaneously to vote for 
delegates for a constitutional convention.  Despite the 
charter change distractions, Congress has continued to make 
progress on some important legislation -- record time 
deliberations on the national budget, approval of a bill 
partially to automate the May 2007 elections, ratification of 
the UN Convention Against Corruption, and even one step 
closer towards approving an Anti-Terrorism bill.  End Summary. 
 
DEATH OF THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY MODEL? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Following the defeat in the Supreme Court of a 
"People's Initiative" (reftel) to amend the Constitution to 
transform the current bicameral presidential system to a 
unicameral parliamentary model, charter-change proponents in 
the House of Representatives, led by Speaker De Venecia, have 
focused their efforts on amending the Constitution through a 
constituent assembly, in which the existing Congress could 
amend or revise the Constitution "with a vote of 
three-fourths of its Members."  Initially arguing that this 
provision did not require separate votes in the two Houses 
and claiming he had enough votes in the lower House to 
achieve the three-fourths majority of the total number of 
Congressmen and Senators, de Venecia then had to resort to a 
strategy of amending the House rules to permit the formation 
of a constituent assembly by the lower House only.  The House 
"invited" the Senate to attend nonetheless, but de Venecia 
indicated that the House-formed constituent assembly would 
begin deliberations on December 12. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Opponents to the House decision quickly condemned 
the move as hasty, manipulative, and unconstitutional.  The 
Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) 
organized a national prayer gathering to denounce the planned 
assembly.  The Bishops, in a pastoral letter to their 
congregations, made the Church's message clear: "No to 
Constituent Assembly" and "No to Postponement of May 2007 
Elections."  The Bishops of Baguio and Iloilo separately 
described their strong opposition to the current constituent 
assembly approach in discussions with Ambassador and DCM, on 
December 7 and 8.  "Brother Mike" Velarde, of the charismatic 
Catholic group El Shaddai, also called on his congregations 
to oppose any moves towards a constituent assembly.  The 
influential Iglesia ni Cristo had also indicated it would add 
its opposition.  All but one of the current 23 Senators 
signed a resolution declaring the House move 
unconstitutional, adding more fuel to the fire against de 
Venecia's plan. 
 
¶4. (U) In an emotional press conference on December 9, de 
Venecia announced that he was willing to postpone the 
constituent assembly and entertain calls for a constitutional 
convention instead.  He proposed election of the delegates 
simultaneously with the May 2007 elections, which he 
indicated he would no longer seek to delay.   De Venecia 
asked that the Senate decide by December 13 whether it would 
support this move; if not, he promised to return to his 
constituent assembly model.  The Senate overwhelmingly 
rejected the three-day deadline but initiated hearings on a 
constitutional convention on December 11.  In a majority 
caucus of the House on Monday, allies of de Venecia 
encouraged him to surrender the constituent assembly and 
focus on a constitutional convention, citing in part clear 
signals from Malacanang. 
 
CONGRESS SLOW BUT NOT STALLED 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite the charter change debates, Congress has 
continued to press forward with its legislative agenda, in 
consultation with Malacanang.  Most notably, at record speed, 
the Senate approved the 2007 national budget, which is 
estimated at USD 23 billion.  The Senate's version is lower 
than that of the House, so a bicameral conference will have 
to thresh out a compromise before Congress adjourns on 
December 22.  In 2006, the government operated on a reenacted 
budget from the previous year due to Congress's failure to 
approve the budget bills. 
 
MANILA 00004954  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Another landmark legislation was "The Poll 
Computerization Bill," which will allow the Commission on 
Elections to pilot-test automation machines in selected areas 
during the May 2007 elections.  It only awaits a Presidential 
signature, although there is already open debate about 
whether there is still enough time and/or budget to prepare. 
On the heels of Transparency International's annual report 
listing the Philippines among the countries with very high 
perceived corruption, the Senate recently ratified the 2003 
UN Convention Against Corruption.  The Anti-Terrorism Bill, a 
version of which the House had already passed, has now moved 
forward in the Senate, albeit with major amendments to 
provide safeguards against possible law enforcement abuses. 
As amended, the bill will next move through a second reading 
in the Senate soon.  It will inevitably face a bicameral 
conference to reconcile the two bills, but senior officials 
of the Presidential Legislative Liaison Office remain 
optimistic about the prospects. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
 
KENNEY