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DE RUEHBU #2705/01 3410940
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O 070940Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6702
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002705 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: IRAQ; CHAVEZ; ECUADOR; MYLES FRECHETTE IN BUENOS AIRES; 
12/06/06; BUENOS AIRES 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Key international stories today include the US Pentagon's director 
Robert Gates' statements regarding the war in Iraq; the aftermath of 
Venezuelan President Chavez' re-election; and the outcome of 
Ecuadorian elections. 
 
Conservative "La Prensa", business-financial "InfoBae" and "Ambito 
Financiero" report on yesterday's PAS press round table with 
Ambassador Myles Frechette. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "The (US) Pentagon admits 'We are not winning the war in Iraq" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (12/06) "'The US is not winning the war in Iraq.' 'What we 
are doing is not satisfactory.' 'There is a certain risk of a 
regional confrontation.' 'We can dramatically reduce the number of 
US soldiers.' Everything Robert Gates, the new head of the US 
Pentagon, said yesterday is to some extent obvious... 
 
"Nevertheless, on the verge of entering a government that has 
systematically denied the simplest truths, his statements 
represented a spectacular sign that things are starting to change in 
Washington, perhaps in spite of the president himself. Former 
advisors to his father, like Gates, the so-called 'realistic group,' 
finally managed to replace neo-conservatives and start designing new 
geopolitics that will impact the whole world." 
 
- "The intervention" 
 
Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," writes 
(12/06) "The statement made by the new head of the US Pentagon 
reveals a reality that is widely known in spite of the White House's 
insistence to deny it. 
 
"However, there is an extraordinary element in Robert Gates' 
testimony - it entails a viewpoint change on the war in Iraq, which 
does not seem to have taken into account the position of US 
President George W. Bush and his VP, Dick Cheney. 
 
"Gates' statement... acted just like an advanced of a takeover of 
the USG. It is not hard to imagine where Bush and his power will 
stand when this powerful group known as 'the realistic ones' states 
that everything was wrong and that negotiation should be sought, 
even with Iran. It is a tremendous sign of weakness of both Bush and 
his staff. It is the collapse of fundamentalist positions and it 
announces, in the form of an emergency, a new global policy." 
 
- "Mercosur could lose trade benefits with the US" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" (12/06) reports "The USG will shortly 
review its GSP and Argentina could lose a tariff umbrella that in 
2005 resulted in exports for 616.5 million dollars. The White House 
wants to use this program for the benefit of the poorest countries 
and several senators also want to use it to punish countries that 
hindered the progress of the Doha Round and the FTAA. 
 
"This is what Myles Frechette, a former member of the Foreign 
Service and current international consultant on commercial issues, 
said during a round table with journalists at the US Embassy." 
 
- "'Argentina and Brazil could pay for their rejection of the 
FTAA'" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" (12/06) reports "Myles 
Frechette, a former head of the Council of the Americas and Americas 
Society and currently an expert in foreign trade and a member of a 
consulting company in Washington, said that 'President Kirchner's 
change of attitude regarding the US does not seem long standing. 
There is obvious relief in Washington, because the President set 
aside his aggressive public tone against the US, but I do not see 
substantial changes. 
 
"'I believe the Doha Round is unlikely to be accepted by the US. The 
Trade Promotion Authority will fall due next July 7. If no deal is 
reached, we will have to wait several more years. Chances that 
Washington agrees to the terms are next to zero. It depends on 
Europe lowering farm subsidies, then the US would follow suit. This 
is not going to happen.' 
 
"... The FTAA does not exist as a possibility as long as farm 
subsidies are not removed. However, the US will make progress on 
bilateral deals and could make up a free trade area with (Colombia, 
Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia), something that would help bring more 
investment to the region." 
 
 
-  "More labor reforms to attract investment" 
 
Business-financial, center-right "InfoBae" reports (12/06) "Invited 
by the US Embassy, Myles Frechette, an international consultant on 
commercial issues, gave a conference in which he spoke about 
globalization and trade deals." "In his viewpoint, the FTAA has 
given way to bilateral deals." 
 
"... Frechette acknowledged that ever since the FTAA vanished as a 
possibility, Washington has attempted to 'harmonize bilateral deals 
with Latin America.' 
 
"He pointed out that 'this would help to attract investment to all 
the countries and possibly in one year we could have deals with 
Ecuador and Chile. And we would also like to reach (trade deals) 
with Argentina and Brazil.' 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Renewed support for Hugo Chavez" 
 
Leading "Clarin" editorializes (12/06) "Venezuela has just renewed 
its support for President Chavez and re-elected him for another 
six-year term... 
 
"... With this overwhelming support, Chavez has the path cleared to 
consolidate his policies of heavy state interventionism in the 
economy... 
 
"The political direction Venezuela has taken under Chavez is also 
the result of the crisis and collapse of a political system that ran 
the country during four decades and was unable to successfully 
tackle the challenges and changes of the '90s. 
 
"... Chavez's political and economic influence will continue to 
spark controversy, opportunities, expectations and mistrust in the 
region." 
 
- "A change of direction in Ecuador" 
 
An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (12/06) "The 
victory of the nationalist left-winger Rafael Correa will mark a 
strong economic and social change in the country following a long 
period of political instability. 
 
"... Although Correa won after having toned down his discourse and 
taking some distance from Hugo Chavez..., he will obviously try to 
quickly fulfill his campaign promises..., which included the 
decision not to renew the agreement with the US for the rental of 
the Manta naval base, and, in contrast with Colombia and Peru, not 
to reach an FTA with the US, a situation that will fracture the free 
trade Andean corridor and the prospects of sub-regional 
integration. 
 
"Correa's task during the next four years will not be easy. In 
addition to his little governmental experience, he will not control 
the fragmented national Congress, which is in hands of the 
opposition, and will be compelled to hold permanent negotiations 
and, perhaps, to moderate his stances." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA