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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHBW #2039/01 3541548
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201548Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9932
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3616
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1275
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 002039 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: SPS Confirms Milosevic Legacy 
 
REF: A) Belgrade 1960; B) Belgrade 1927; C) Belgrade 1873 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) Milosevic's once-dominant Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) 
will probably eke across the five percent threshold in Serbia's 
upcoming January 21 parliamentary elections. A party congress 
earlier this month revealed continued disarray, with "moderates" 
winning a tough fight for the leadership and supporting a campaign 
message that blends hardline rhetoric on Kosovo with a pledge to 
continue working closely with PM Kostunica's Democratic Party of 
Serbia (DSS). Any post-Milosevic soul searching will have to wait 
until after the elections. For now, the SPS will have to focus on 
revving up its party machinery to ensure it crosses the 
participation threshold and remains politically relevant.  End 
Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a thirteen-hour marathon session on December 3, the SPS 
elected Ivica Dacic, the head of the erstwhile moderate faction in 
the party, to be the new head of the SPS. Dacic quickly moved to 
shore up party unity ahead of the elections by pandering to the 
party's hardline base, including supporting military action in 
Kosovo, slamming The Hague Tribunal, and affirming Milosevic's 
legacy.  Hedging his bets, he also voiced open support for the DSS 
and Kostunica, and SPS willingness to continue their cooperation 
with the DSS during the next government.  The runner up in the 
leadership contest, traditional hardliner Milorad Vucelic, a loyal 
Milosevic supporter and former vice president of the party, hardly 
seemed with the program, revealing links between Dacic and criminal 
tycoon Predrag Rankovic, the source of some of the financial support 
for the SPS. While leading pollsters suggest that the SPS will 
probably cross the threshold, the party will face an uphill battle 
to mend internal fences and kick their parliamentary campaign into 
high gear. 
 
Socialist Party Congress Maintains Hardline Stance 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In the run-off vote for the leadership, the over two 
thousand Socialist party delegates from throughout Serbia elected 
acting president Ivica Dacic as the first--and only other--party 
president since the death of Milosevic. In the first round, Dacic 
was supported by 1089 delegates while Milorad Vucelic, a staunch 
Milosevic loyalist, garnered 633 votes. Former secretary general of 
the SPS Zoran Andjelkovic (309) and old guard communist Petar 
Skundric (196) rounded out the list. Dacic ultimately defeated 
Vucelic in a second round of voting 1287 to 792, but then appointed 
Vucelic and his other opponents to the Party's main board. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) With the media speculating heavily about the party's 
survivability after Milosevic's death before the long-postponed 
Congress, the event largely exploited messages of the past, 
including Milosevic's legacy, Kosovo, and the Hague Tribunal. While 
there were fewer pictures than in the past, the SPS had a number of 
large photos of Milosevic plastered around the convention. The SPS 
adopted a Resolution on the Historic Role of Slobodan Milosevic that 
states, "Milosevic is a part of history, but also a part of the 
present and future. There shall be no discontinuity." Ultimately, 
the congress proved to be more of the same, and ensured that the 
Socialists will continue to espouse the image and messages of 
Milosevic throughout the campaign. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On Kosovo, Dacic raised the stakes by suggesting the 
possibility of war again to defend Kosovo "with all available 
means." However, after being pressed about this statement during an 
interview on the B92 television program Polygraph, Dacic recanted, 
saying "Don't worry. Even if we wanted to go to war we have nothing 
to go to war with."  The Socialist also added to the anti-Hague 
rhetoric, chiming in on the Radical-led campaign in support of 
Seselj and arguing that there should be no extraditions to the Hague 
because "those that defended the country are heroes, not criminals." 
 Presiding over a party riddled with contradictions, Dacic appears 
content to try to appeal to both party moderates and hardliners in 
the campaign, waiting until after the SPS is voted back into 
parliament to begin the changes necessary to remold the SPS into a 
leftist, social-democratic type of party that can survive on the 
Serbian political scene. 
 
...and Supports the DSS 
----------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In the only surprise of the congress, the SPS underscored 
its continued support for Kostunica and his policies. Kostunica gave 
the SPS a boost in 2003 by making them the kingmaker for his 
government, a role that paid the SPS handsome dividends in the 
government's constant "negotiations" to retain SPS support. 
Kostunica told the Ambassador privately at one point that, while he 
 
BELGRADE 00002039  002 OF 002 
 
 
would never join forces with the Radicals, he thought the SPS 
offered an acceptable left of center option for the Serbian 
electorate -- and that he was not opposed to forming a coalition 
with the SPS in the future.  SPS leaders have argued that support 
for the DSS and Kostunica have allowed the Socialists to keep the 
nemesis DS from being in government, a key goal.  Dacic additionally 
stressed that the new constitution would not have been adopted 
without DSS and SPS support, linking the SPS to the "national 
project" successes of the Kostunica government, including the 
constitution and protecting Kosovo within Serbian borders. 
 
COMMENT: SPS Struggling to Define Itself 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Already early in his chairmanship of the party, Dacic faces 
a number of concerns over party unity, campaign messages and 
behind-the-scenes undermining of his leadership by his opponent 
Vucelic. Although Dacic tried to distance himself from Milosevic 
after the latter was extradited to The Hague and Dacic was made the 
party's acting president and head of its main board, Dacic now 
appears to be trying to capitalize on the legacy of Milosevic to 
unify the party--and the party base--ahead of the elections and a 
decision on Kosovo. Dacic is probably unwilling to radically alter 
the party platform only weeks away from the election for fear of 
losing what little support the party has. Polls currently have the 
SPS hovering near the threshold but major pollsters predict they 
will make it into parliament given their supporters' high level of 
loyalty and discipline. Already losing voters to the extremist 
platform of the Radicals, Dacic may try to reform, modernize and 
moderate the party after January 21, but for now, he is aiming to 
boost momentum for the party heading into the parliamentary 
elections primarily by one-upping Radical Party nationalist rhetoric 
in an attempt to lure back the hardline base. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Vucelic, meanwhile, will continue to resist any effort to 
moderate the SPS message pre- or post-elections.  He is a die-hard 
Milosevic loyalist, having worked as the head of RTS, Milosevic's 
propaganda machine, in the early 1990's. Vucelic, a vice president 
of the party before the congress, believes that Milosevic's name 
will still garner votes in Serbia, but he is also probably more 
concerned with keeping power, and any money flow, for himself than 
moving the party forward. Not long after the party congress ended, 
our sources reported that there are now allegations that Dacic was 
"heavily financed" by gambling kingpin Predrag Rankovic a.k.a. 
Peconi, who owns a number of gambling centers in and around 
Belgrade. In an effort to "legalize" his money, Rankovic has been 
buying businesses and likely plans to use the SPS to get into 
politics by providing them with much needed financial assistance. 
Rankovic supposedly provided a great deal of financial aid directly 
to Dacic, who used the money to ensure his resounding victory as 
head of the SPS. In retaliation for his loss and marginalization 
within the party, Vucelic has reportedly leaked the Rankovic story 
to the press to undermine the SPS--and Dacic--and prevent the party 
from crossing the threshold. 
 
 
POLT