VZCZCXRO6222
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1960/01 3390630
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 050630Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9837
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3605
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1260
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 001960 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: Seselj's Hunger Strike Increasing Attention for 
the Radicals 
 
REF: 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) The Serbian Radical party is keenly focusing its 
campaign for parliamentary elections in January on the 
continuing hunger strike of their leader, Vojislav Seselj, 
currently on trial in the Hague. As the campaign trail 
heats up, the Radicals will likely continue to exploit 
Seselj's latest antics as a way to ramp up a campaign 
message that is anti-Hague, and anti-West. Despite the 
surprise NATO announcement on PfP that could complicate the 
anti-West strategy, and some discord between the leadership 
in Belgrade and their leader in the Hague, the Radicals are 
mobilizing throughout the country to gather signatures and 
stage rallies in support of Seselj and his hateful and 
anti-Western message. End Summary. 
 
Hunger Strike Garnering Sympathy 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Fresh off the controversial death of former 
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic while in custody at 
The Hague, Seselj's hunger strike over alleged ICTY 
mistreatment is again rousing anti-Hague sentiment amongst 
the populace. Seselj is demanding that the tribunal allow 
him to chose his own defense council, unrestricted visits 
from his wife, that all documents submitted to him be in 
Serbian (not Serbo-Croatian), and the latest, that all his 
foreign currency assets outside of Serbia, specifically in 
the US, be unfrozen. Seselj has been on his self-imposed 
hunger strike for approximately three weeks now in protest. 
He was moved into the hospital wing of the detention center 
on November 30--the SRS says against his will--over 
concerns that his health condition is endangered. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Seselj is echoing Milosevic's accusation that the 
Tribunal was set up by secret international agencies, and 
accusing the US and the west of plotting to kill him. 
Seselj refused to appear during the first day of his trial 
on November 27, and therefore lost his right to conduct his 
own defense. The trial is now adjourned indefinitely 
because of concerns over Seselj's condition. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ljiljiana Smajlovic, editor-in-chief of pro- 
government daily Politika, stoked the anti-Hague sentiment 
in a commentary on November 28, asserting the Tribunal was 
making a mistake by imposing council on Seselj and accusing 
him of obstructing the trial, a charge she called ludicrous 
given that he has been waiting four years for his trial to 
even begin. Smajlovic said that the tribunal is weakening 
itself even further in Serbian public opinion by its latest 
actions. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Seselj's hunger strike will likely continue to 
hold the attention of Serbia, both through media, and SRS 
rallies and booths set up in Belgrade and Serbia-wide to 
collect signatures in support of Seselj. The Radicals held 
a rally on November 23 near the parliament building, 
carrying Seselj's pictures, waiving party flags and 
shouting "Release Seselj."  A much larger event was held on 
Saturday, December 2 in front of the US Embassy, with 
20,000-25,000 people showing up carrying banners with 
pictures of Seselj, Mladic and Milosevic.  Speeches by the 
SRS leadership were hate-filled harangues accusing the U.S. 
of using the Hague Tribunal to murder its leadership and 
destroy Serbia.  The Radicals also attacked Tadic and 
Kostunica as U.S. lackeys.  Their campaign continued on 
December 3, with party leaders publicly reading out 
Seselj's last will and testament, which called on them to 
never to abandon their ideology of a "Greater Serbia" and 
to oppose Serbia's entry into NATO and even the EU. 
 
Campaign Theme for the Radicals: The Hague not Kosovo 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The demonstration in front of the Embassy on 
December 2 suggests that the SRS is opting to focus on a 
backward looking anti-Hague, anti-West campaign message 
instead of responding to the economic frustrations of its 
base.  Because the DSS has already seized Kosovo as their 
main rallying cry, the SRS has been content to echo and 
reinforce the PM's hard line on the Kosovo issue.  Asked by 
reporters if the SRS would try and avoid leading the next 
government in order to blame Tadic and Kostunica for losing 
Kosovo, Deputy SRS leader Nikolic said he would not accuse 
 
BELGRADE 00001960  002 OF 003 
 
 
anyone in Serbia for a bad outcome on Kosovo's final 
status.  "How can I accuse them for a solution that will be 
passed by Marti Ahtisaari? If the solution is negative, 
i.e. if Kosovo gains any form of independence or if the 
present state remains, then that solution will be 
unacceptable for all of Serbia and it will simply have to 
react," said Nikolic. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) NATO's surprise decision to invite Serbia to 
participate in PfP may complicate the Radicals strategy as 
the announcement has been viewed positively both by the 
public and by the NGO's that have been strongly supportive 
of the ICTY.  The Radicals have not commented on the PfP 
decision as of yet and their silence has not been raised by 
the media or challenged by the other parties.  In any 
event, we expect the Radicals' rhetoric against the West to 
increase in the weeks leading up to the election.  It will 
be interesting to see how they balance the anti-West themes 
in their anti-Hague effort with the public's largely 
positive reaction to PfP membership. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  The party emerged from the Constitutional 
referendum and the subsequent passage of the Constitutional 
law, looking very much as winners: they foiled Kostunica's 
alleged promise to the DS of joint presidential and 
parliamentary elections before the end of the year and took 
credit for adding references to the Constitution that 
strengthened Serbia's national claim on Kosovo.  By 
supporting the referendum, the Radicals enhanced its image 
as a "nation-building" party, dedicated to defending the 
country's territory and sovereignty.  The media's gingerly 
treatment of the Radicals and the PM's careful avoidance of 
any public criticism of their rhetoric, has deepened 
suspicion among some that SRS, SPS and DSS are reserving 
their options for some variation on a possible National 
Unity Government that would bring all parties together in a 
Serbian government united against an independence outcome 
in the Kosovo talks. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Most recently, however, the SRS has lashed out at 
the DSS in reaction to damning testimony in the high- 
profile trial on the killing of former PM Zoran Djindjic, 
and accused the government of manipulating a key witness to 
suggest an SRS hand in Djindic's death.  In its "anger," 
the SRS publicly claimed it would never join in coalition 
with the DSS and would only rule alone or in partnership 
with ethnic Bosniak and Hungarian minority parties, an 
offer which both flatly refused.  The DS exploited the 
breach by calling on the DSS to declare before the 
elections which parties they would and would not be in 
coalition with.  The DSS has refused to answer but the SRS 
continued to attack the DSS and Kostunica in person during 
its rally over the weekend.  The PfP decision and the 
process that Serbia faces to accept the invitation, will 
give the DS additional fodder for pushing the DSS to come 
clean and clarify its electoral plans. 
 
Discord Amongst the Radicals? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Meanwhile, the Radical leadership, including 
Nikolic and the young ambitious Secretary-General, 
Alekandar Vucic, are reportedly frustrated with Seselj's 
antics and heavy handed directives from the Hague. Despite 
Seselj's reportedly poor condition, our sources tell us 
Seselj has access to a cell phone and calls his wife and 
party officials regularly to try to continue organizing the 
day-to-day activities of the party. The SRS continues to 
follow Seselj's guidance, support him in The Hague and 
consult with him on official party business.  He is listed 
first on the party's ballot list which is officially named: 
"Serbian Radical Party--Vojislav Seselj." However, Nikolic 
and Vucic reportedly continue to look for ways to 
circumvent his orders, while still publicly maintaining 
their fierce loyalty. 
 
Comment 
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¶11. (SBU) The controversy over Seselj's condition at the 
beginning of election season will likely provide at least a 
small boost to the Radicals as they exploit the anti-Hague 
sentiment already boiling in Serbia. Even with the trial 
suspended, we expect the Radical's to continue banging on 
the anti-Hague drum with any worsening in Seselj's 
condition playing to their advantage.  Seselj's personal 
involvement in the Radicals electoral campaign may 
backfire: extending their anti-West message even to the EU, 
 
BELGRADE 00001960  003 OF 003 
 
 
which the vast majority of Serbs support as the key to 
Serbia's future is a dangerous tactic that party leaders 
here have sought to avoid. 
 
 
POLT