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Viewing cable 06BANGKOK7435, GRAVE CONCERN" ABOUT PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BANGKOK7435 2006-12-15 06:18 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bangkok
VZCZCXRO5906
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHBK #7435 3490618
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 150618Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3458
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 2829
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
UNCLAS BANGKOK 007435 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB 
COMMERCE FOR EAP/MACK/OKSA 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR WEISEL 
STATE PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO FOR DAN FINEMAN 
STATE PASS TO FEDRAL RESERVE NEW YORK FOR MATT HILDEBRANDT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON TH
SUBJECT: "GRAVE CONCERN" ABOUT PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN 
THAILAND 
 
1. (U) Amid pressure to take action in the face of a rapidly 
appreciating currency and tepid economic growth, on December 
13 Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee met and decided to 
keep the Bank of Thailand (BoT) policy rate unchanged at 5 
percent. Committee chair and  BoT Assistant Governor Suchada 
Kirakul told the press after the meeting that the BoT has 
"grave concern" over the slow growth of private investment 
which has increased only 2.9 percent through Q3 2006 while 
GDP has increased 4.7 percent over the same period. 
 
2. (U) Private investment has been in a declining trend since 
2004 even while capacity utilization has been increasing. 
While Suchada expressed confidence that private investment 
will increase next year due to high corporate and financial 
sector liquidity , low inflation and increased RTG spending, 
some private sector analysts have noted the strong 
correlation between export growth and private investment and 
expect the strength of the baht to limit export growth going 
forward and, therefore, limit private investment as well. The 
investment bank UBS, for example, has lowered their GDP 
forecast for 2007 from 3.9 percent to 3.5 percent. 
 
3. (SBU) Further hindering investment and the general 
confidence level has been the strength of the baht which has 
appreciated over 14 percent against the US$ this year. 
According to Citibank's Bangkok branch manager for F/X, other 
regional currencies have appreciated less against the dollar 
in 2006 ranging from the Korean Won up about 11 percent, the 
Indonesian Rupiah 7.5 percent, Malaysian Ringgit 6 percent 
and Philippine Peso 8 percent. The reasons given for the 
outperformance of the baht include: 
- The baht underperformed in 2005 and is merely "catching up' 
to other Asian currencies. 
- Thai exports have done especially well this year and Thai 
exporters typically do not hedge. There has therefore been 
unusually heavy inflows of US$ even as import growth has been 
low due to stable oil prices, low consumer demand and low 
private investment.  One bank currency trading desk official 
told us that every time the baht depreciates slightly, 
exporters who have not yet converted their dollar earnings 
quickly enter the market and the baht resumes its upward 
trend. 
- There is almost no borrowing in US$. 
- Tourism income has been above expectations. 
- There is a general sense that the US$ will continue to 
weaken for some time. 
- The BoT, having learned their lesson from trying to 
intervene heavily in 1997, now only intervene on the margins. 
 
4. (SBU) Comment. As Thailand has grown into a middle income 
economy, it has inevitably been losing its competitiveness in 
labor intensive exports to competitors in China and other 
less developed SE Asian neighbors. That fact accounts for 
some of the decline in FDI. However, private investment is 
further restrained due to the continuing debate in Thailand 
about how to handle the question of foreign participation in 
the services sector. Thai law limits foreign ownership to 49 
percent; a limitation that since the promulgation of the 
Alien Business Act 30 years ago has routinely been avoided 
through he use of nominee companies and shares with differing 
voting rights. Since mid-year the RTG has been debating how 
to close these loopholes and thereby created significant 
uncertainty among foreign investors considering investing in 
Thailand. Between the growing domination of China and 
Vietnam's emergence as  the new "hot spot" for FDI, added 
uncertainty in Thailand only adds to the uphill battle to 
attract additional inward investment to this country. An 
appreciating baht that increases the relative cost of doing 
business here only adds a further complication. 
ARVIZU