VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #4183/01 3600817
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260817Z DEC 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3532
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6127
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7357

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 004183 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS 
 
 
Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage 23-26 on the decision of the chamber in charge of the 
Presidential Office Allowance for State Affairs case that the case 
does not violate the Constitution; the indictment of former National 
Science Council Vice Chairman Hsieh Ching-chih for his alleged 
involvement in corruption; the Ministry of Transportation and 
Communications' approval of the launch of the high-speed railway 
amid safety concerns from scholars and experts; and on Jaw 
Shau-kong, former Chairman of UFO Radio, as the final buyer of the 
Broadcasting Corporation of China (BCC), one of the KMT's assets. 
 
In terms of editorials, the pro-independence, limited circulation, 
English-language "Taiwan News" editorialized that Taiwan's Ministry 
of Foreign Affairs should adopt a new offensive that "sets fires" 
worldwide to force Beijing to spend its resources and time in 
'extinguishing fires.' 
The pro-independence, limited-circulation, English-language "Taipei 
Times" speculated in its editorial that the postwar situation after 
China's possible invasion of Taiwan will resemble the takeover of 
Taiwan by the KMT after World War II.  The editorial added that two 
factors, namely the pragmatism of the Taiwan people to accept their 
lot and U.S. economic aid, helped to stabilize Taiwan's social 
situation right after the takeover and questioned what China's 
strategy will be without these factors.  End summary. 
 
A) "New Offensive Needed in Diplomacy" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] pointed out in its editorial (12/26): 
 
"During the past year, Taiwan has regretfully witnessed a 
deterioration in our diplomatic position largely due to China's 
full-scale offensive to reach out to Taipei's allies in Africa and 
Central America, its continued obstruction of our efforts to join 
the World Health Assembly [sic] and the United Nations and the 
continued absence of the Taiwan president from the annual 'informal 
summit' of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. ... 
 
"In our view, the pursuit of a 'pluralist diplomacy,' defined by the 
DPP government as a way to utilize Taiwan's democratic achievements 
and the energy of civil society, and 'leadership diplomacy' through 
overseas visits by Taiwan's national leaders, is still correct. 
 
"However, from the strategic and diplomatic points of view, it is 
necessary for the DPP government and especially the Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs to mobilize all of its overseas embassies and 
representative offices to 'set fires' everywhere in order to force 
Beijing to spend its resources and time in 'extinguishing fires.' 
 
"For example, instead of engaging in 'money games' with the PRC, 
Taiwan should provide evidence to its diplomatic partners and other 
nations that Beijing has not and will not deliver on its extravagant 
promises and emphasize the concrete and pragmatic contribution of 
Taiwan's assistance efforts to improving grassroots living standards 
and capability building [sic]. 
 
"Moreover, Taiwan should keep reminding those countries that are 
contemplating embracing Beijing of the detrimental effects 
accompanied with [sic] the PRC's influence, especially the negative 
impact of the dumping of Chinese products on local employment and on 
economic prosperity. 
 
"No less critical is for the Foreign Ministry and the Government 
Information Office to launch a concerted publicity offensive 
worldwide to shatter the widely held but mistaken image of the PRC 
as a 'peaceful rising power' and show the world the true face of 
military expansionism and authoritarianism embedded with Beijing's 
so-called 'peaceful rise.' 
 
"Most importantly, the DPP government must make more effective 
efforts to incorporate civil society into Taiwan's external affairs 
and promote deeper participation with equality and respect for 
pluralistic views with NGOs. ..." 
 
B) "What Follows a War with China?" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (12/23): 
 
"... China has plans of some nature drawn up for an invasion. But it 
is not clear that Beijing has the remotest idea how to govern an 
occupied territory that was once a wealthy democracy -- and this 
does not factor in the logistics of feeding and sheltering an 
occupying army and bureaucracy. 
 
"The idea that Taiwanese civilians would be unwilling to confront 
PLA forces and a military government -- especially after atrocities 
occur -- is not convincing; what would be needed to mitigate such 
problems is a collaborationist administration.  An interesting 
 
question that follows is: Who would they choose? And from this: Are 
such people identifiable now? 
 
"The likelihood of a collaborationist government being able to 
competently deal with the international economic response to an 
invasion is low -- indeed, Beijing would probably be struggling hard 
to defend 'mainland' China's economic integrity. 
 
"Other changes that might shock Taiwan's middle class from its 
stupor would be the expulsion of selected foreigners and 
organizations, the purging of universities and possible revoking of 
citizenship for people of 'non-Chinese' descent and their title to 
property, and restrictions on movement. 
 
"The best-case scenario for China would see a pragmatic public 
accept their lot -- much as Taiwanese did following the flight of 
KMT troops to Taiwan in the late 1940s and early 1950s. But after 
that time the KMT was boosted by US support and sensible economic 
reforms that spread wealth across most sectors of society. It is not 
clear how China would act in an occupied Taiwan, and whether 
'sensible' policy would have much role to play. 
 
"The more one fleshes out a postwar scenario, the more insane an 
invasion appears. With Beijing, however, this does not lessen the 
likelihood of one. Of prime concern is the certainty that a postwar 
administration would quickly earn the contempt -- then hatred -- of 
most Taiwanese, a situation mirroring that of 60 years ago. If China 
wishes to proceed with this scenario, it had better be prepared to 
crush dissent ruthlessly and so destroy its uncertain international 
reputation -- and kiss its fantasy of a spiritually united China 
goodbye." 
 
WANG