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DE RUEHWR #2470 3321608
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P 281608Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2530
INFO RUEHKW/AMCONSUL KRAKOW PRIORITY 1420
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS WARSAW 002470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CAPTURES WARSAW MAYORALTY 
 
REF: WARSAW 2389 
 
 ¶1.  Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz from the opposition Civic 
Platform (PO) will become Warsaw's first woman mayor on 
Saturday, December 2.  Gronkiewicz-Waltz won a decisive 
victory against former PM Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, the acting 
Mayor, in run off elections held on November 26. 
Gronkiewicz-Waltz carried 53% of the vote despite 
Marcinkiewicz's stature as the most trusted and popular 
politician in Poland.  The opposition's victory in Warsaw was 
widely viewed as a rejection of the ruling Law and Justice 
(PiS) led coalition government of Jaroslaw Kaczynski.  While 
Marcinkiewicz was quick to congratulate his opponent, PM 
Kaczynski issued a surly statement saying that the results 
were a troubling return to politics as usual.  Marcinkiewicz, 
though personally popular, suffered from his identification 
as the PiS candidate in a city where PO won in last year's 
national elections, and captured the city council in the 
first round of voting on November 12.  Marcinkiewicz, who 
comes from Gorzow Wielkopolskie in Western Poland, may have 
also lost votes because of the view among some voters that he 
was something of a carpet-bagger. 
 
¶2.  After the weekend vote, Marcinkiewicz's future became the 
most widely-speculated topic of conversation.  He personally 
quipped on a local radio station that "unemployment is low in 
Warsaw; I'm confident I'll be able to find something to 
occupy my time."  He vowed to take a month's vacation with 
his family and make a decision only afterwards, however many 
expect his return to a prominent position in the government, 
possibly as Minister of Education, Economy, Treasury or 
Foreign Affairs.  Minister of Education Roman Giertych 
announced that Marcinkiewicz replacing him at Education would 
break the government coalition, and many discount the MFA 
possibility owing to the importance the Kaczynskis attach to 
complete loyalty.  There were also rumors that Marcinkiewicz 
could serve as the President of the National Bank of Poland 
when that job becomes open in January 2007.  Ironically, his 
opponent in Warsaw, Gronkiewicz-Waltz, held that job from 
1992 to 2000. 
 
PO's Jan Rokita Out on a Limb? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  The turnout for the second round of mayoral runoffs was 
nearly 40% of those eligible to vote.  Elsewhere in Poland, 
incumbents were re-elected in several major cities, including 
Krakow, Lodz and Poznan. In Krakow, independent incumbent 
Jacek Majchrowski walked away with nearly 60% of the vote, 
despite the unusual political endorsement from  PO's Jan 
Rokita of Majchrowski's PiS challenger, Ryszard Terlecki. 
Rokita's endorsement caused a flap within PO, and raised anew 
the speculation that he was steering an independent political 
route.  Marcinkiewicz added fuel to that rumor today when he 
confirmed that he had agreed to meet with Rokita at an 
unspecified time in the near future to talk about Poland as a 
"peer to another peer." 
 
¶4.  Comment:  As noted reftel, the race in Warsaw was unique 
in this year's local balloting because it was viewed as a 
referendum on the Kaczynski government.  Elsewhere, 
incumbents fared well no matter their party.  However, the 
larger the city, the likelier that it voted for the 
opposition.  Overall, PO captured the largest number of seats 
in regional assemblies (sejmiks), PiS captured a majority of 
town councils, and the opposition Peasant's Party (PSL) won 
the largest share of the smallest local (village) councils. 
If PO and PSL can forge a lasting political bond, the 
opposition may finally be able to crack PiS's electoral lock 
on the rural heartland, which delivered PiS victories in last 
year's parliamentary and presidential elections.  End 
comment. 
ASHE