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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002389 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: INCUMBENTS AND OPPOSITION CLAIM VICTORY IN LOCAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: WARSAW 2372 AND PREVIOUS 
 
WARSAW 00002389  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  Summary.  Poles voted in municipal and regional elections 
nationwide on November 12, with many incumbents sailing to 
re-election, and the opposition Civic Platform (PO) running 
strong in provincial assemblies.  The center piece of the 
election, the race for Warsaw mayor, will see a run off on 
November 26 between former PM (and Law and Justice (PiS) 
candidate) Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz and PO's Hanna 
Gronkiewicz-Waltz, a former head of the Central Bank.  PO's 
strong showing in larger cities and regional assemblies 
reflects the ongoing polarization of Polish politics, despite 
PO claims to have rebuked the Kaczynski government. The 
bigger story is the poor showing of PiS's coalition partners, 
who may prove more cooperative on the national stage in an 
effort to fend off another round of parliamentary elections. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2.  Regional elections throughout Poland on November 12 
resulted in a wave of support for incumbent mayors and for 
the opposition.  Fifteen of Poland's 36 largest cities 
returned incumbent mayors with over fifty percent, thereby 
avoiding a second round run off.  Most of these mayors ran 
nominally as independents, but have prior affiliation with 
the opposition PO.  Notably only one of the fifteen, Katowice 
mayor Piotr Uszok, ran as an independent but with former 
support from PiS. 
 
Run Off in Warsaw on November 26 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  Run off elections between the top two contenders will be 
held in more than twenty cities on November 26.  The highest 
stakes race will be the Warsaw mayoral run off between PiS 
candidate, former PM Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz and PO's Hanna 
Gronkiewicz-Waltz.  Both candidates are busily wooing support 
from United Left (UL) candidate Marek Borowski, who surprised 
many by capturing 23.2% of the vote.  With his strong third 
place finish, Borowski becomes a natural leader of a 
rehabilitated UL after the electoral shellacking of the SLD 
and Borowski's break-away Social Democrat Party (SdPl) in 
last year's national elections.  Marcinkiewicz has proposed a 
grand coalition in Warsaw between PiS and PO.  Polls 
currently show a tight race, tipping in favor of PO's 
Gronkiewicz-Waltz. 
 
PiS Coalition Partners Are the Big Losers 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  PO was quick to claim victory on November 12 when returns 
showed that it was beating PiS in the bellweather regional 
assembly races.  However, the bigger stories are the ongoing 
polarization of Polish politics between urban "Polska A" and 
rural "Polska B," and the pitiful showing for PiS coalition 
partners, Self Defense (SO) and the League of Polish Families 
(LPR).  Consistent with the electoral results in last year's 
national elections, PO ran strongest in cities and regional 
assembly races.  Given his personal popularity, even 
Marcinkiewicz's first-round win in Warsaw cannot be viewed as 
a public endorsement of PiS in the capital.   PiS did, 
however, capture a majority of votes in towns and community 
councils.  SO polled a feeble fifth place in most races, 
eking out the requisite five percent of votes for 
representation in the some regional assemblies and larger 
town councils.  LPR, by contrast, fell well below the 
parliamentary threshhold, leading many to speculate that it 
will simply be absorbed by PiS.  Its candidate for Warsaw 
mayor, Wojciech Wierzejski, former leader of LPR's notorious 
youth arm, finished behind a joke candidate from the party of 
"Bumpkins and Gnomes", with a mere 0.3% of the vote. 
 
¶5.  The Polish Peasants Party (PSL) made a strong fourth 
place showing across the country, well ahead of its 
performance in the 2005 elections, and easily beating LPR and 
SO.  In the Mazowiecki province surrounding Warsaw, PSL 
nearly topped PO for second place.  Voters credited PSL 
leader Waldemar Pawlak for statesman-like conduct during the 
recent political fracas, when he was approached and summarily 
dumped (again) by PM Kaczynski as a possible coalition 
partner. 
 
¶6.  Comment:  Turnout for regional elections was strong 
(45.8%), even higher than last year's national elections, 
suggesting that voters were energized by the political 
turmoil of the last year.  However, PO's strong showing will 
likely give PM Kaczynski pause before considering a new 
electoral round next Spring.  With their dreadful fifth and 
sixth place showing, his coalition partners will have no 
appetite for snap elections that would freeze them out of 
government.  PiS efforts to make inroads into the center 
right have been successful, with an evolving political scene 
 
WARSAW 00002389  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
that is dominated by PiS and PO, with the left showing signs 
of new life in third place.  End Comment. 
HILLAS