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DE RUEHWR #2372 3131548
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FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2406
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHKW/AMCONSUL KRAKOW PRIORITY 1388

UNCLAS WARSAW 002372 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: POLISH OPPOSITION RUNNING STRONG IN URBAN AREAS 
 
REF: A. WARSAW 2322 
     ¶B. KRAKOW 254 
 
¶1.  In the final days before Poles vote in local and regional 
elections, opposition candidates are poised to capture a 
majority of Polish cities and are running ahead of the ruling 
Law and Justice Party (PiS) in regional assemblies (sejmiks). 
 With multiple candidates running in most mayoral races, 
runoffs are likely in a majority of cities, most notably 
Warsaw.  As reported in reftels, the Warsaw race is viewed 
locally as a referendum on the Kaczynskis, whereas in most 
cities local personalities and issues dominate.  Latest polls 
in Warsaw show a tight race between former PM Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz and Civic Platform's (PO's) Hanna 
Gronkiewicz-Waltz, with the United Left polling strongly 
enough to force a run-off in two weeks.  In that run-off, 
Gronkiewicz-Waltz holds a slender lead. 
 
Polska A Opts for the Opposition 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Like the red-blue divide so widely discussed in American 
politics, Polish cities are often lumped together as "Polska 
A," leaning disproportionately to the centrist opposition. 
Except for Marcinkiewicz in Warsaw, and incumbent mayor Jerzy 
Kropiwnicki in Lodz (Poland's second largest city), both of 
whom are backed by PiS, candidates backed by PO and United 
Left are running ahead in every other major urban area.  Of 
the dozen largest cities in Poland, only two candidates -- in 
Wroclaw in the southwest, and in Gydinia in the north -- are 
expected to win a majority and thus avoid a runoff. 
 
¶3. The polarization that figures so prominently on the 
national political stage is much more muted in local races. 
In Wroclaw, incumbent mayor Rafal Dutkiewicz unusually has 
the endorsement of PiS, PO and the United Left, and oversees 
a city council with a working PiS-PO coalition that is 
unfathomable elsewhere.  Nonetheless, the long arm of 
national politics can be felt in some races.  In Szczecin, on 
the German border, former PiS Minister of Finance, Teresa 
Lubinska, is running third in a tough race behind PO and 
United Left candidates.  Although widely recognized as a PiS 
politician, Lubinska's billboards shout "independent," in 
huge letters, with the PiS logo relegated to the corner. 
Lubinska's campaign materials feature endorsements from 
Marcinkiewicz (whose doctoral thesis she reviewed at the 
University of Szczecin) and former FM Wladyslaw Bartoszewski, 
who is not a member of PiS.  Notably absent is PM Jaroslaw 
Kaczynski, in whose Chancellery Lubinska nominally works. 
 
Influence of Party Blocs is Minimal in Mayoral Races 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶4.  The elections this Sunday got the final green light 
November 3 when the Constitutional Tribunal's ruled the new 
local election law constitutional.  The most controversial 
aspect of that law permits political blocs between parties, 
and provides for the distribution of votes for parties that 
fall below the parliamentary threshold among larger parties 
with which they are blocked.  This will likely play a role in 
rural areas that are historically supportive of the League of 
Polish Families, Samoobrona (both blocked with PiS) and the 
Polish Peasant's Party (blocked with PO).  In urban areas, 
the blocking effect will be minimal.  In Szczecin, for 
instance, Lubinska's campaign manager pointedly asked poloff 
to ask Samoobrona's candidate, Mateusz Piskorski, to throw 
his support to Lubinska in a second round.  Reflecting the 
fragile state of the ruling coalition, when we asked 
Piskorski whether he would do so, he shrugged his shoulders 
and said "why should I do that?"  He said he would likelier 
vote for the United Left candidate, who is a well known and 
highly regarded local politician, and a former member of the 
SLD government. 
 
¶5.  Comment:  All eyes will be on Warsaw when the opposition 
and PiS will be poised to claim a "historic victory."  If 
Marcinkiewicz prevails, PiS will highlight PO's unexpected 
losses last year and failure to win the critical race this 
year.  If Gronkiewicz-Waltz wins, PO will claim their victory 
is a rebuke of the Kaczynski government.  End Comment. 
ASHE