VZCZCXRO8608
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #3960/01 3310514
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 270514Z NOV 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3179
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5987
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0566
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1544
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5516
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9748
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7207

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003960 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT:  Kaohsiung Mayoral Race:  Acting Mayor and Mayoral 
Candidates Assess Election Prospects 
 
Ref: 2006 Taipei 3674 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen 
Chu and Kuomintang Party (KMT) candidate Huang Chun-ying told DDIR 
separately on November 21 that the critical Kaohsiung mayoral race 
remains too close to call and the final outcome could hinge on just 
5,000 votes.  Chen was concerned that Lo Chih-ming, the other Green 
candidate representing the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), could 
siphon off enough deep Green votes to allow Huang to squeeze out a 
victory.  Corruption scandals plaguing the DPP administration have 
dampened the enthusiasm of Green supporters, but in a race this 
close, last minute developments that energize either party's base or 
affect centrist voter turnout could tip the election in either 
direction.  End Summary. 
 
A Neck and Neck Race 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In separate meetings with AIT Deputy Director Wang on 
November 21, KMT candidate Huang Chun-ying and DPP candidate Chen 
Chu were in agreement that the election is closer than anyone could 
have imagined at the outset of the race.  Both suggested that the 
margin of victory could be as close as 5,000 votes.  Chen contended 
that she beats Huang on personal charisma and administrative 
ability, characterizing herself as a decisive, tough, and clean 
leader.  DPP Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan, however, told the DDIR that 
both candidates are good people and there is little difference in 
their campaign platforms.  According to Yeh, Chen is not opposed to 
opening up cross-strait economic exchanges, which Huang has 
highlighted as the key to improving Kaohsiung's economy.  In fact, 
Yeh said, no politician is oblivious to the need for the "three 
links" or the fact that Taiwan has heavily invested in China. 
However, Taiwan politicians cannot simply relinquish the issue of 
sovereignty in order to negotiate with China, Yeh added. 
 
Tensions Between Pan-Green Candidates 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Chen Chu observed that TSU candidate Lo Chih-ming may play 
a pivotal role in the election by splitting the Green vote.  As few 
as 20,000 votes cast for Lo could cost her the election and hand 
Huang a victory, Chen lamented.  The deep tension between Chen and 
Lo came to the fore during a televised debate on November 29 when, 
at one point, Chen asked Lo if he would support her given his own 
low support ratings.  Lo retorted that Chen's request was 
undemocratic since he could not abandon his party or supporters 
merely to help the DPP win the election.  Voters, he said, have a 
right to make their own choice among all candidates. 
 
Corruption Issue Affects the Kaohsiung Campaign 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Chen Chu acknowledged that corruption scandals plaguing 
the Presidential Office and the DPP's poor performance over the last 
six years have negatively affected her chances in the mayoral race. 
Huang charged the DPP is attempting to mitigate the corruption issue 
by comparing KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's recent troubles regarding 
the use of a special mayoral allowance with the case against 
President Chen.  Such a comparison is "ridiculous," Huang 
maintained.  Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan, however, argued that the two 
cases are similar and the irregularities proved that there are 
systemic problems in the use of administrative special accounts that 
need to be addressed.  Yeh also suggested that disunity within the 
DPP, highlighted by the recent resignation of two prominent DPP 
legislators from Chen Chu's faction, has hurt Chen. 
 
Key Battleground 
---------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Chen Chu said she would not resort to playing the Taiwan 
identity card to mobilize voters because its use in the past has 
aggravated tensions and polarized society.  Instead, her team plans 
to launch a last minute emotional appeal to energize voters and 
raise voter turnout.  The KMT's Huang, however, said he fully 
expects the DPP to pull out some last minute surprises because it 
cannot afford to lose this battle in what has come to be seen as a 
DPP stronghold.  Although unsure of what the DPP might do, Huang 
said his campaign is preparing to respond quickly to last minute 
 
TAIPEI 00003960  002 OF 002 
 
 
attacks.  Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan in an earlier meeting (reftel) 
had indicated that a DPP loss in Kaohsiung would lead to DPP 
Chairman You Shyi-kun's resignation and likely precipitate a power 
struggle within the party. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The Kaohsiung election continues to be too close to call, 
despite the sense on the street that the KMT is poised to win.  Both 
candidates will continue to fight to the bitter end because the 
election is still in play and out of concern that any last-minute 
minor fluctuations could tilt the outcome in either direction. 
 
THIELE 
 
YOUNG