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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #1199 3211115
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 171115Z NOV 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6066
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7137
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7600
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2624

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ: IRAN ROLE IN IRAQ; MIDDLE EAST: 
LEBANON, U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "To Negotiate With Iran? That Is The Question" 
 
International affairs commentator Newton Carlos wrote in liberal, 
largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (11/17): "The 
bipartisan committee that is looking for a way to get the US out of 
the Iraqi quagmire has already signaled that it is considering a 
regional conference in the Middle East in which Americans and 
Iranians would be the major protagonists.... A direct dialogue 
between the US and Iran has been compared with the diplomatic 
initiative that led to the reestablishment of relations with 
communist China in the 70's.... Experts are convinced that the 
'major dispute,' both for Tehran and Washington, is located in Iraq. 
The idea of a dialogue is not new. Earlier this year, the Bush 
administration tried to resume it, even limited to the 'Iraq 
question,' but difficulties in the agenda prevented the idea from 
advancing." 
 
¶2. "Setback In Lebanon" 
 
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo 
editorialized (11/15): "Lebanon is experiencing another serious 
political crisis.... The reason is the Parliament's recently 
approved motion in support of UN plans to create an international 
court to judge those responsible for Rafik Hariri's murder.... UN 
investigations have indicated the participation of major Syrian 
authorities in the crime.... The US and the West have supported 
Prime Minister Fuad Siniora's government.... But the situation may 
change. Following the Democratic victory in the US midterm 
elections, pressures for the Bush administration to resume 
negotiations with Syria are increasing, and that would be good. 
Damascus would then pull away from Iran and help Washington to try 
to control the chaos in Iraq in exchange for the return of the Golan 
Heights. However, it is likely that Syria wants to resume control of 
Lebanon too, which would be a step backwards. What remains to be 
seen is whether, on behalf of some relief of the situation in Iraq, 
the US would give up supporting Siniora." 
 
¶3. "History's Revenge" 
 
Sociologist Demetrio Magnoli commented in center-right O Estado de 
¶S. Paulo (11/16): "There are indications that the Baker Commission 
is anticipating a bloody fragmentation of Iraq into three autonomous 
entities and will propose something like a 'withdrawal to the 
neighborhood.' That means the removal of the occupation troops from 
Iraqi cities to bases in the Iraqi desert and neighboring nations as 
a means of providing support to Baghdad's government and dissuading 
both Iran and Syria from directly interfering in the Iraqi civil 
war.... In addition to expanding the horrible ethnic cleansing, 
Iraq's fragmentation would destroy the basis of the regional 
order.... The failure of the Bush Doctrine launches a general war 
threat over the Middle East. The US is probing the possibility of 
opening negotiations with Iran and Syria. On the other hand, Israel 
is openly preparing to wage a war against these two nations." 
McMullen